Unless there's an unexpected deal to be made high atop the board, expect the Spurs to try and use a sizable package of picks to move near the middle of the first round.
Using multiple assets to move up into the teens seems a lot riskier (player may or may not ever be great) than using multiple assets to trade for a known great player. I’m fixated on a deal with the Cavs because they have two star point guards that are 6-1” and may have realized that small back court will always cap them defensively. Also they are desperate for high quality wings. Maybe under the new CBA this isn’t a great way to build though.
There’s absolutely room to try and acquire a proven piece, and if Garland somehow became available it would be worth the inquiry. He’s an excellent player. But A) I would be surprised if the Cavs put him on the market, and B) introducing a brand new maximum contract to your payroll and immediately eating up your space doesn’t come without its own risks.
I am a fan of his, but I cringe a bit at the idea of paying max money to a small, bad defender. Excellent offensive player, but the two way stuff is worrisome. Still, your overall point is well taken. If a young proven player becomes available they should (and would) check into it. But again, throwing a handful of picks into a trade on draft night, even if it’s to get into the first round if their guy is there, isn’t all that risky right now. They have the luxury of owning more picks than they’ll truly be able to use.
Really great analysis. Appreciate that these are credible (not totally "pie in the sky) scenarios.
I think the Miami trade suggestion involving Oladipo seems particularly realistic.
That one that would work for both teams. I could easily see the Heat looking to get out of the first round this year to take advantage of an early 2nd at #33 at a reduced cost, especially if they could move off 'Dipo's contract and get a pick next year, when they might better know where they stand w/ their vets.
Would love for SA to offer them the CHA pick- I think the TOR one might end up being pretty decent- but if SA's preferred guy is there at #18, it might be worth parting with the Raptor one instead, or maybe even the Spurs' own pick (though that's risky). I don't think Wallace, Bufkin, or Hood-Schifino will be there that late but if one of them is...
I really like the idea you had with us taking back salary from Miami so we could get their pick without giving up as much
The Heat are in such cap hell I wonder if they’d jump at the chance to get Lowry’s contract off their books. Maybe just a single protected first from us gets it done?
Idk if Lowry would be interested in mentoring our young guys. Would the Holts agree to a $30 million buyout?
Well they’re gonna have to pay most of that money anyway if they’re under the floor, so it’s not about willingness to pay. It’s more about practicality and just eating up all cap space in one fell swoop if they have plans on using it otherwise. Besides, Miami is gonna need that contract if they hope to chase down Brad Beal.
Surprised you didn't mention Utah as a possibility, since they have three first rounders. The 9 is probably out of the question, but 16 might be gettable. The 28 is probably too far back to get what they want (unless they can use it and something else to move up some more)
Because they’re trying to do the same thing the Spurs are, and they’ve got even more picks to burn. My guess is they’re going to try and package some of those together to try and move up, and if they can’t they’re just gonna make the selections. Two teams trying to accomplish the same thing in the draft make bad trade partners.
Got it. Hopefully someone the team likes drops or is available at good price.
Was looking at what teams might actually be willing to trade a top five pick and you are right, very few. Only potentials I could think of would be a veteran playoff team who had bad year and got lucky. On two previous occasions the teams decided to use pick (2003 Pistons, 2020 Warriors). Guessing Blazers do the same.
Guess if a team like this wanted to trade down and add assets that is where our plethora of picks could be used.
Agree that “hoping” for a worthy enough player to becomes available isn’t a good strategy. But do think being ready and having ammo to hunt is important. If we don’t use up to trade up this year we could kick proverbial can (meaning picks) down the road by trading for future picks - if we don’t want to use them all.
But if KD, Dejounte, Rudy, etc. are going for four/five picks I would think that is comparable to trading for a top five pick. If Scoot slips to #3 would Blazers consider a package that sends them four/five future picks ( Hornets’, Bulls’, Raptors’ and one/two Hawks picks)?
Probably worth adding: Any trade they might make would come with actual intention to draft from a select group of players. If “their guys” aren’t there they’re not gonna overpay. But I believe there’d be a good chance to draft a promising player in the mid to late teens.
Keep in mind, I’m not positing they’ll offer the Atlanta picks to move into the teens. That’s the real ammo. Using the protected picks probably isn’t the expense you think it is, either. Hell, there’s a chance the Charlotte pick never even conveys, so get rid of that thing and make it someone else’s concern.
And it’s not really apples to apples with KD, DJ, Rudy and a top 5 pick. Those guys were eventually traded because their teams were moving in a different direction. It is not the same thing as trading for a potential rookie superstar. If a team believes they have that guy, they aren’t trading him for anything. OKC could offer all 15 of its firsts (can’t legally, just making a point lol) for Wemby and the Spurs would say no.
Point is, if you get into the top echelon of a draft like this you’ve accomplished your goal. Other teams’ picks wouldn’t do anything for you if your guy is there, unless an already proven star is included in the deal. I feel like people need to get the idea of Scoot out of their heads, because I’d bet a sizable amount of money he goes No. 2 overall despite all the rumors. If it isn’t Charlotte, it’ll be a team that traded an already proven star plus picks to get to No. 2. You just don’t give those selections up for future draft considerations.
If the price for late teens pick cost multiple first rounders, no thanks!
As much as I would like a second first rounder on better prospect (as opposed to at 33rd pick), believe the war chest should be used for big game hunting (established player or top five pick- this year or in 2024/2025)
Hey it’s possible they wait to use these picks once they all start to kick in next year, but what is your proposal for big-game hunting? If they don’t use anything this summer, they could move to 2024 and use potentially three picks to move up further, but given the protections on those picks, top 5 is probably a tough sell unless the Spurs do poorly and the Raptors are bad enough to slide, but just good enough to stay out of the bottom six.
And in terms of the trade market, it’s tough to wait around for the off chance a young star becomes available. Again, it’s possible, but that’s a lot of “we’ll see” and I know the Spurs want to get this show on the road.
Good breakdown, thanks. I wonder if Pop/SA will finally get over the weird "don't trade with the Lakers" edict. Also, this being such a deep role player draft, I almost would rather keep the second rounders this year, but I guess it runs the risk of overcrowding the roster even more?
Glad you enjoyed it! And as far as those second-rounders go, it just all depends on what might be used in a trade, as well as which players they bring back this season. There’s a chance they could use them (especially No. 33) but they might also just not have the space.
Using multiple assets to move up into the teens seems a lot riskier (player may or may not ever be great) than using multiple assets to trade for a known great player. I’m fixated on a deal with the Cavs because they have two star point guards that are 6-1” and may have realized that small back court will always cap them defensively. Also they are desperate for high quality wings. Maybe under the new CBA this isn’t a great way to build though.
There’s absolutely room to try and acquire a proven piece, and if Garland somehow became available it would be worth the inquiry. He’s an excellent player. But A) I would be surprised if the Cavs put him on the market, and B) introducing a brand new maximum contract to your payroll and immediately eating up your space doesn’t come without its own risks.
I am a fan of his, but I cringe a bit at the idea of paying max money to a small, bad defender. Excellent offensive player, but the two way stuff is worrisome. Still, your overall point is well taken. If a young proven player becomes available they should (and would) check into it. But again, throwing a handful of picks into a trade on draft night, even if it’s to get into the first round if their guy is there, isn’t all that risky right now. They have the luxury of owning more picks than they’ll truly be able to use.
Really great analysis. Appreciate that these are credible (not totally "pie in the sky) scenarios.
I think the Miami trade suggestion involving Oladipo seems particularly realistic.
That one that would work for both teams. I could easily see the Heat looking to get out of the first round this year to take advantage of an early 2nd at #33 at a reduced cost, especially if they could move off 'Dipo's contract and get a pick next year, when they might better know where they stand w/ their vets.
Would love for SA to offer them the CHA pick- I think the TOR one might end up being pretty decent- but if SA's preferred guy is there at #18, it might be worth parting with the Raptor one instead, or maybe even the Spurs' own pick (though that's risky). I don't think Wallace, Bufkin, or Hood-Schifino will be there that late but if one of them is...
I really like the idea you had with us taking back salary from Miami so we could get their pick without giving up as much
The Heat are in such cap hell I wonder if they’d jump at the chance to get Lowry’s contract off their books. Maybe just a single protected first from us gets it done?
Idk if Lowry would be interested in mentoring our young guys. Would the Holts agree to a $30 million buyout?
Well they’re gonna have to pay most of that money anyway if they’re under the floor, so it’s not about willingness to pay. It’s more about practicality and just eating up all cap space in one fell swoop if they have plans on using it otherwise. Besides, Miami is gonna need that contract if they hope to chase down Brad Beal.
Surprised you didn't mention Utah as a possibility, since they have three first rounders. The 9 is probably out of the question, but 16 might be gettable. The 28 is probably too far back to get what they want (unless they can use it and something else to move up some more)
Because they’re trying to do the same thing the Spurs are, and they’ve got even more picks to burn. My guess is they’re going to try and package some of those together to try and move up, and if they can’t they’re just gonna make the selections. Two teams trying to accomplish the same thing in the draft make bad trade partners.
They’ve got the same number of picks as OKC essentially, the Gobert and Mitchell deals brought in major hauls. So they’re all good on that front.
Got it. Hopefully someone the team likes drops or is available at good price.
Was looking at what teams might actually be willing to trade a top five pick and you are right, very few. Only potentials I could think of would be a veteran playoff team who had bad year and got lucky. On two previous occasions the teams decided to use pick (2003 Pistons, 2020 Warriors). Guessing Blazers do the same.
Guess if a team like this wanted to trade down and add assets that is where our plethora of picks could be used.
Agree that “hoping” for a worthy enough player to becomes available isn’t a good strategy. But do think being ready and having ammo to hunt is important. If we don’t use up to trade up this year we could kick proverbial can (meaning picks) down the road by trading for future picks - if we don’t want to use them all.
But if KD, Dejounte, Rudy, etc. are going for four/five picks I would think that is comparable to trading for a top five pick. If Scoot slips to #3 would Blazers consider a package that sends them four/five future picks ( Hornets’, Bulls’, Raptors’ and one/two Hawks picks)?
Probably worth adding: Any trade they might make would come with actual intention to draft from a select group of players. If “their guys” aren’t there they’re not gonna overpay. But I believe there’d be a good chance to draft a promising player in the mid to late teens.
Keep in mind, I’m not positing they’ll offer the Atlanta picks to move into the teens. That’s the real ammo. Using the protected picks probably isn’t the expense you think it is, either. Hell, there’s a chance the Charlotte pick never even conveys, so get rid of that thing and make it someone else’s concern.
And it’s not really apples to apples with KD, DJ, Rudy and a top 5 pick. Those guys were eventually traded because their teams were moving in a different direction. It is not the same thing as trading for a potential rookie superstar. If a team believes they have that guy, they aren’t trading him for anything. OKC could offer all 15 of its firsts (can’t legally, just making a point lol) for Wemby and the Spurs would say no.
Point is, if you get into the top echelon of a draft like this you’ve accomplished your goal. Other teams’ picks wouldn’t do anything for you if your guy is there, unless an already proven star is included in the deal. I feel like people need to get the idea of Scoot out of their heads, because I’d bet a sizable amount of money he goes No. 2 overall despite all the rumors. If it isn’t Charlotte, it’ll be a team that traded an already proven star plus picks to get to No. 2. You just don’t give those selections up for future draft considerations.
You can get plus odds betting on Scoot going #2 right now...
If the price for late teens pick cost multiple first rounders, no thanks!
As much as I would like a second first rounder on better prospect (as opposed to at 33rd pick), believe the war chest should be used for big game hunting (established player or top five pick- this year or in 2024/2025)
Hey it’s possible they wait to use these picks once they all start to kick in next year, but what is your proposal for big-game hunting? If they don’t use anything this summer, they could move to 2024 and use potentially three picks to move up further, but given the protections on those picks, top 5 is probably a tough sell unless the Spurs do poorly and the Raptors are bad enough to slide, but just good enough to stay out of the bottom six.
And in terms of the trade market, it’s tough to wait around for the off chance a young star becomes available. Again, it’s possible, but that’s a lot of “we’ll see” and I know the Spurs want to get this show on the road.
Good breakdown, thanks. I wonder if Pop/SA will finally get over the weird "don't trade with the Lakers" edict. Also, this being such a deep role player draft, I almost would rather keep the second rounders this year, but I guess it runs the risk of overcrowding the roster even more?
Glad you enjoyed it! And as far as those second-rounders go, it just all depends on what might be used in a trade, as well as which players they bring back this season. There’s a chance they could use them (especially No. 33) but they might also just not have the space.