Identifying potential trade partners ahead of the NBA Draft
Unless there's an unexpected deal to be made high atop the board, expect the Spurs to try and use a sizable package of picks to move near the middle of the first round.
San Antonio currently sits at a crossroads. It isn’t exactly the most intimidating stop sign, as the direction the Spurs take in this very moment won’t make or break what the team is building (barring any sort of egregious malpractice). But there’s a balancing act they are going to have to consider in terms of how they’ll best utilize their assets once June 22 comes around.
However, Victor Wembanyama’s presence as an unquestioned cornerstone piece offers San Antonio some extra freedom to aggressively streamline its future planning, and potentially be even more explorative in the middle portion of the draft without having to take big risks. It’s got a nice, developing core already forming a solid foundation, a promising two-three punch in Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, and a bunch of assets it needs to burn. That combination would provide a level of comfort should the Spurs want to take swings without sacrificing part of the primary group that’s already in the building — particularly if an offer to jump into the top 10 never materializes, which seems doubtful considering the objectives of most teams in that range.
So the question becomes, why subtract or exchange when you can just add? Depth is going to be critical, especially during this team’s formative years.
Surrounding Wembanyama with players who process the game quickly — gotta understand the “.5” concept in San Antonio (shoot, attack or pass within half a second of the ball being swung to you) — and can hurt defenses in a variety of ways is going to allow the Spurs to play the way they like. And while it’s the job of every organization to live on the lookout for the next star to fall, the reality is every draft’s selection pool outside of the upper echelon of prospects is mostly full of role players. Planet Earth has never been so well scouted, and All-Star talent just isn’t slipping through the cracks as often in the modern era, which makes the hidden gems increasingly difficult to find.
But they’re out there.
Picking up the right role guys may not be overly exciting, and it’s not the kind of stuff that writes the unbearable deluge of headlines, but it can lead to real consistency and sustainability so long as they’re paired with a true top option. San Antonio now has that, as well as the ability to operate with specific archetypes in mind.
At the risk of sounding too reductive, teams can find shooters, cutters and ball-handlers off the streets these days, but the multifaceted connectors who can also defend, run the pick-and-roll, hit spot-ups and score when chances present themselves are always going to be under contract somewhere. Packing a roster full of versatile pressure-release valves capable of immediately attacking shifting defenses or identifying the next right man in the sequence can produce wonderful results, if not an eventual diamond in the rough. And despite the likely drop-off in talent from the very top, this draft is a good one — with the looming possibility of a perceived top-10 prospect slipping toward the late lottery.
As tides begin to shift under the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement, draft picks have become more valuable than ever for all teams, not just small-market organizations. We may be setting up for a summer of movement, with big spenders doing whatever they can to cut costs and avoid the new levels of increasingly punitive luxury-tax penalties while still remaining competitive. That means actually focusing on the draft and even trying to recoup picks they may have dealt in years past, which could also come in handy as usable assets.
So identifying potential transactional partners ahead of what appears to be a strong class is a tricky proposition, especially considering the 2024 crop appears to be … meh. There may be options, though. And while there are surely plenty of trade-machine servers being pushed to capacity with high-profile offers from armchair general managers, it remains highly unlikely there will be another top-10 pick coming the Spurs’ way this summer. Those selections are too valuable right now, and even if you want to throw Keldon in the mix — not impossible, but I find it difficult to believe he’s going anywhere unless some team in the top five REALLY loves him — it’s probably not enough to land one of the most highly coveted spots. Either that, or it’s not worth it for San Antonio, depending on players available.
But as we move toward the late lottery and toward the 20s, some possibilities may present themselves.
Los Angeles Lakers (pick No. 17): L.A. is likely to run it back with much of its current roster, and as the LeBron James window begins to close, it doesn’t seem probable the Lakers will be relying on the 17th overall pick to help push them over the hump. No time for projects. So, as they look to improve on the margins via free agency and the trade market, they’re going to need a lot more ammunition, because their tradable pick stash has mostly run dry. Sure, they have a few players who could potentially be dealt, but if they want to sweeten any potential offer without having to gut their roster even further — which, because of all their pending free agents, is comprised of only four players at this point -- they’re going to need future assets. And that’s where the Spurs come into play. San Antonio has picks Los Angeles could certainly use, but one wonders if these two franchises will ever deal with one another.
The Lakers are going to be doing a lot of their work in free agency, as they always try to do. But adding more assets to the pile would give them additional flexibility and spending power if, say, Kyrie Irving returns to Dallas and they decide to pursue a Chris Paul trade with Phoenix. Acquiring a slew of picks could very easily be worth more to them than the one they’d be giving up this season.
Miami (pick No. 18): It’s a good thing the Heat are so well-coached and do an unbelievable job of getting the most out of their players, because considering the money being spent on the talent they have, they’d otherwise be stuck on a skewer. Their cap sheet is wild. Next season, Miami will be spending north of $160 million on Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Victor Oladipo, which would put them in the tax based on those contracts alone. Its front office is excellent with the money stuff, and I have no doubt Senior Vice President of Basketball Operations Andy Elisburg will wiggle around and create some spreadsheet magic, but they may need some help.
The Heat are pretty stable draft-wise in that they own most of their future first-round picks, but an influx of another handful could really help them facilitate any potential trade that may surface. Additionally, if they are looking to avoid the second tax apron but would rather not deal any of their best players, San Antonio still has the capacity to eat a sizable or annoying contract in exchange for that first-round pick. Lowry’s nearly $30 million might be a pill nobody wants to swallow right now, but Oladipo’s nearly $10 million might be enticing. The Spurs would still have room to work in free agency if they absorbed it, and it would help the team push the salary floor and retain its eligibility for luxury-tax payments next summer. Send the Heat both second-round picks this season and throw in a 2024 first-round pick in exchange for No. 18 and the injured Oladipo? I think you’re starting a conversation. Toss in a second future first-rounder and they’re staying on the phone. San Antonio has enough in the bank to tip generously.
Golden State (pick No. 19): The Warriors have some serious financial decisions to make both this summer and in the years ahead, just as now former General Manager Bob Myers leaves the front office ahead of what could be a rebuild or retooling in the not-so-distant future. Yes, this year’s pick would benefit a team that needs to prepare for what’s ahead, but with that main core still intact and a group of young players in Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and Patrick Baldwin Jr. still waiting for their turn, there is currently a crowd.
Like Miami, Golden State has most of their first-round picks, but it couldn’t hurt to land a few more in preparation for what’s ahead. Especially considering the 19th pick isn’t going to help them right now. These teams are going to either A) need to make moves that would be more plausible with more assets in their stash, or B) time their draft selections in a way that will coincide with the final stages of their current run. Sacrificing this summer’s pick in order to stockpile for the future isn’t a bad idea.
There’s also an argument to be made for Brooklyn, who’s got two picks this June but still owes a chunk of assets to Houston from the James Harden trade, to further replenish its coffers; or maybe even Indiana, who’s got three first-round picks to make but may want to spread out its allotment a bit, if it doesn’t try and trade up itself. Regardless, the Spurs have the ability to throw multiple first- and second-round picks at a potential trade partner if they want to obtain another pick in the first round.
It might sound hefty, but it’s going to take a sizable package like that to move up this summer, even if it’s into the mid-teens or early twenties. There are competitors out there with just as many (or more) picks to offer, and the Spurs don’t have the luxury of being able to send an additional first-round pick this year — though their early second-rounder (No. 33) could come in very handy. Remember, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded three first-round picks to jump up and draft Jalen Williams No. 12 overall last summer, and I expect that to be the going rate for asset-rich teams interested in moving this summer as well, depending on the slot.
If San Antonio wanted to make available the protected picks it’s owed by Toronto, Charlotte and Chicago (which could all convey over the next two summers), they’d be putting a substantial offer on the table while still retaining plenty of future flexibility and spending power. Any kind of similar package that comes up in negotiation could be well worth it if it landed the Spurs a pick in the teens, especially given their track record of developing young players.
And hey, the Spurs could do so without having to send yet another core player packing. It sure feels like this team has had enough of that for now.
In the next newsletter, we’ll get to who some of San Antonio’s likely draft targets would be in these scenarios.
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Using multiple assets to move up into the teens seems a lot riskier (player may or may not ever be great) than using multiple assets to trade for a known great player. I’m fixated on a deal with the Cavs because they have two star point guards that are 6-1” and may have realized that small back court will always cap them defensively. Also they are desperate for high quality wings. Maybe under the new CBA this isn’t a great way to build though.
Really great analysis. Appreciate that these are credible (not totally "pie in the sky) scenarios.
I think the Miami trade suggestion involving Oladipo seems particularly realistic.
That one that would work for both teams. I could easily see the Heat looking to get out of the first round this year to take advantage of an early 2nd at #33 at a reduced cost, especially if they could move off 'Dipo's contract and get a pick next year, when they might better know where they stand w/ their vets.
Would love for SA to offer them the CHA pick- I think the TOR one might end up being pretty decent- but if SA's preferred guy is there at #18, it might be worth parting with the Raptor one instead, or maybe even the Spurs' own pick (though that's risky). I don't think Wallace, Bufkin, or Hood-Schifino will be there that late but if one of them is...