Tiers of a Spur: A last-minute run-through of potential prospects

There are a lot of possibilities in the draft tonight, so here are five groups of players whose tape jumped out to me over the last couple of months.

We’re roughly five hours away from the Spurs’ first pick at No. 9, which clearly is entirely too much time for anyone to waste when more content is a possibility.

I’ve organized five groups of players I feel would be intriguing prospects, particularly from a San Antonio perspective. I’m sure I’ve left some out, so please comment with your own thoughts if you’ve got some. And I know you do, so jump in on the action and let’s spice up the community element of this place!

Before we dive in, I wanted to shout out the Hardwood Hoops Central YouTube page. Steven Barnhart cut up and compiled literal hours of tape on each prospect, and did so without commentary so viewers can take their shots at scouting and forming their own opinions. For people like me who invaded the draft space just a few months ago after not following along with every second of the college season, it was a massive help. OK, onward.

I’ll believe it when I see it

These are players mostly projected as top-8 picks but who could be affected by draft-night chaos, especially considering the amount of rumors that have been swirling about over the couple of weeks. ALL HEIGHT MEASUREMENTS IN SHOES BECAUSE THAT’S HOW THEY’LL BE PLAYING BASKETBALL.

Shaedon Sharpe:

Height: 6’6
Weight: 200 lbs
Wingspan: 6’11
Age: 19

I don’t care what anybody says, whichever team drafts Sharpe is doing so based on a blend of his workout performances, interview impressions, intel results and just sheer athleticism. That’s not a knock on anyone. It’s practically all anyone has to work with.

The majority of Sharpe’s tape is from the high-school level, where the competition and general intensity is iffy at best. We know this guy can hoop, but can he HOOP? It’s very difficult to assess how good he is at basketball within the team context, so at this point any fan base whose team drafts him is just going to have to trust those front offices know a lot more than the general public and most of those covering the draft. Which they should, and probably do.

He is the home-run swing of home-run swings, and there’s a decent chance he slides to a team that never expected him to be available until very recently. If you’re the Spurs, it could be an unlikely chance to take a big shot from no man’s land.

Keegan Murray:

Height: 6’8
Weight: 225 lbs.
Wingspan: 6’11
Age: 21

You know what you’re getting with this guy if you draft him. Murray is a super versatile offensive threat who can shoot (spot-up, off the dribble, off screens, from the pick-and-pop, in isolation, you name it…), attack the rim, get physical inside, and even mix in a bag of tricks if he needs to create for himself. Regardless of system he should be able to adapt with great efficiency, and would be a dream second option at the very least. Defensively, he’s inconsistent. He’s very good when he’s locked in and engaged, particularly on the ball. But those moments seem much more fleeting than they should be. Maybe at the next level, where he’ll have more help on offense, he’ll commit fully to the other side of the ball.

But what may cause Murray to slide is the conversation about ceiling. He’s already a pretty polished player, but at 21 years of age he’s already older than both Devin Vassell (by four days) and Joshua Primo (by like two and a half years!). The question at this point isn’t how Murray ranks among the other prospects right now, it’s how teams will rank him five years from now. I still doubt he falls to the Spurs, but even if he did, I’m not sold they’d take him at No. 9 with all the youth and upside in that range.

Bennedict Mathurin:

Height: 6’6
Weight: 205 lbs.
Wingspan: 6’9
Age: 20

Out of all the players in this category, Mathurin is the one I’m most confident will be gone by the time the Spurs pick, if they don’t trade up, of course. He’s just got too much upside as a three-level scorer, and this draft is pretty sparse on perimeter players who have the potential to create for themselves at a high level once you get past the top four or five. But it would be a treat for San Antonio if they were somehow able to snag him, for a number of reasons.

Mathurin is excellent with or without the ball in his hands, has a real motor and intensity to him, a fun level of flair and showmanship, and can shoot, attack the rim with physicality, show flashes of playmaking out of the pick-and-roll, and really defend when he’s engaged (which can sometimes be a question with him). On top of that, the offense they ran at Arizona was very Spursy. A lot of PnR, screens on and off the ball, dribble-handoffs, drive and kick, etc…

His style of play would fit right in with what San Antonio likes to do, but I wouldn’t count on him being available. Unless, chaos, of course.

Dyson Daniels:

Height: 6’8
Weight: 195 lbs.
Wingspan: 6’11
Age: 19

There seems to be a wide range of projections for Daniels, so sticking him in this tier is nothing but a gut feeling for me. With all the hype around him and the skill set he possesses at that size, I just feel like someone is going to snag him.

A tall, long playmaker who excels in the pick-and-roll, can be a mismatch nightmare for smaller guards, can defend 1 through 3 and has a quickly improving jumper is going to be a very hot commodity. He’s got that high-floor, high-ceiling combo with all the intangibles any team would pursue. Big fan. I’m sure the Spurs are, too.

The likeliest bunch

This is the group I’m high on that should be available to the Spurs if the projected status quo remains. It excludes players with projections in this range I’m not as high on from a San Antonio perspective. It’s my belief this group is small.

Jeremy Sochan:

Height: 6’9
Weight: 230 lbs.
Wingspan: 7’
Age: 19

Love this dude. I wrote many words about him over there, so I’ll spare y’all here. Raw, versatile, dynamic, high-floor, high-ceiling player whose moldable all-around skill set is exciting in this range. He’s like a ball of clay — I believe you can turn him into damn near anything his potential will allow.

Jalen Duren:

Height: 6’11
Weight: 250 lbs.
Wingspan: 7’5
Age: 18

Wrote a lot about him as well. The conversation around Duren in the context of today’s NBA is a very interesting one. He’s got tremendous upside and potential, but is the risk of drafting a center in the top 10 these days worth the hassle? I’m not so sure.

Gotta—gotta trade up to get down

Truly sorry for the bad Coolio reference. Maybe. Nah I’m not. This group features players I feel the Spurs should consider if they’re somehow able to consolidate draft picks and move up behind the ninth pick.

Jalen Williams:

Height: 6’5
Weight: 240 lbs.
Wingspan: 7’2
Age: 21

I love these types of players. Williams is a late bloomer, both physically and as a player, and got very little shine playing on the West Coast at Santa Clara. Not a ton of visibility out there. He came into college as a combo guard (apparently he was 5’10 his junior in high school) but grew into a certifiable wing with crazy length and a skill set you typically associate with backcourt players.

In case you haven’t noticed, I’m a big fan of the versatile-playmaker types in this year’s draft, and Williams fits that bill. He’s an excellent ball-handler and facilitator out of the pick-and-roll, has a developing pull-up game and looks like he’ll be a more than dependable spot-up shooter. He plays mostly below the rim but has a level of athleticism (40-inch vertical at the combine) that belies his boxy physique. He’s not a guy that will take off from a crowd and fly over the top of defenders, but if he’s got space, or if he’s able to load up off two feet, look out. I feel he’s a player who might really benefit from being around an NBA strength-and-conditioning program, and if he’s able to unlock a little extra burst, there’s some major potential for him as a finisher and scorer around the rim with the length he possesses.

On top of all that, this guy is the definition of cerebral. Watch this film session and tell me you’re not a fan.

Ousmane Dieng:

Height: 6’10
Weight: 205
Wingspan: 7’
Age: 19

Dieng is probably the second-most preeminent mystery man in the draft behind Sharpe. The skill set is tantalizing but the optics are rough, so trying to project what he’s going to become is difficult and, quite frankly, a lot of guesswork. If you can a swing on him it’s because your intel is really good, and his ceiling may be worth the risk anyway. I’ve already written about him in the roundtable discussion I had with friends.

He's so young, he played on a really bad team, and he was asked to do a lot more than was probably planned right off the bat. But as the season rolled along he put up better and better numbers, he was visibly more comfortable, and most importantly his shot started falling. The idea of a long, 6'10 wing who can dribble, pass and shoot, operate as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and playmaker, and who shows a lot of defensive upside is tantalizing. But sooooo much has to come together.

Because of that lack of physicality and his thin frame, he rarely tries to attack the rim, instead almost always opting for his floater (which is actually pretty damn good). His shot, while promising, is very inconsistent, and while he's got some definite self-creation upside with all that size, fluidity and touch, I really doubt he'll ever be a high-volume scorer in the NBA. To me, if the Spurs draft him at No. 9, it means they got some seriously good intel on the type of worker he is and the type of character and dedication he has. The talent is there, and the flashes of a dynamic player are tangible, but it really looks like it's going to be a process before the entire package comes together. If it ever does.

I'm all for taking upside swings in this draft, especially if I'm a team drafting in that mid-lottery range, but there are just other guys sitting there with plenty of upside and higher floors. I think it's probably pretty safe to assume the Spurs are exploring ways to consolidate picks (for a number of reasons), and Dieng just seems like a better bet closer to the middle of the first round.

Blake Wesley:

Height: 6’5
Weight: 190
Wingspan 6’11
Age: 19

Wesley is not a guy you see mocked to the Spurs in many places, but in a draft lacking in players with true scorer upside, this guy stands out. He’d absolutely be a project, but there’s just something about him that jumps off the screen. It almost feels like a stretch to stick him in this group because it’s entirely possible (maybe likely) he’s there when the 20th pick rolls around. But he stands out to me as a guy I’d want to go get if you’ve got a good feeling about him, because I don’t think you’ll be the only one.

I also wrote about him in that same discussion.

Blake Wesley is on the short list of guys I'm going to be watching wherever he goes. Perhaps I'm just mesmerized by the "you can't guard me" pep in his step, but very few players in this draft have the go-to perimeter-scoring upside he does, and even fewer have the type of two-way potential that pops off the screen this much.

Wesley is a good athlete with great length and outstanding body control, his handling and creativity constantly keep defenders on their heels, his feel for the pick-and-roll and ability to facilitate and/or summon a burst downhill is tantalizing, he knows how to relocate and spot up off the ball, he can guard 1 through 3 and is a menace in the passing lanes.

But, like basically everyone in this draft, he's got issues. He's got a thin frame and doesn't have a ton of vertical pop when in a crowd, which really informs his ROUGH finishing numbers. His jumper is inconsistent (and often really bad) because his mechanics can be all over the place. And yet, I'm not too worried about this stuff, especially if he's drafted by the right team with the right developmental staff in place.

He's going to fill out, and he's too long and creative around the rim to just stay shooting 40 percent at the basket. It's crazy how many inexplicable misses he had in close when you watch his film. Once he gets to the more open spaces of the NBA, I feel like that element of his game is going to take off. And of course, as always, I'm just going to pull the 'Chip' card in confidence he'd be able to quiet down his erratic shooting.

Wesley may not ever be the picture of efficiency, but there's a lot of growth potential there. I now Stan down from Cape Wesley and move along…

Dalen Terry:

Height: 6’7
Weight: 195
Wingspan: 7’
Age: 19

Similarly to Wesley, Terry may be there when the 20th pick rolls around, but I feel like this guy is going to be highly coveted. He’s a big ball of fun and energy with an infectious attitude that matches his playing style. On top of the bounciness he’s got some uncommon skills for a lot of players like him. You don’t typically see these explosive, defensive-menace types with the kind of playmaking ability he possesses.

He’s great in transition — particularly when he’s jumping passing lanes and turning defense into offense — effective as a cutter and a factor on the offensive glass. Most players like this are hellbent on getting to the rim, but Terry is constantly looking for teammates and he’s excellent at finding them.

His upside depends on his offense in the half court. While he’s got some slashing potential, facilitating ability and an improving spot-up jumper, he’s extremely limited with the ball in his hands. You wish he had more of a pull-up or in-between game, but he simply doesn’t right now. And if defenses aren’t worried about that element of his game, it will become increasingly difficult to be the playmaking threat that he is. If he’s able to unlock that area of his skill set (if it’s there), his game will jump to a different level. Still, he’s going to impact basketball games one way or another. Even his floor would be useful to any team.

Mark Williams:

Height: 7’2
Weight: 245 lbs.
Wingspan: 7’7
Standing reach: 9’9 (!!!)
Age: 20

I share the same concerns about the idea of drafting Williams as I do with Duren. But if there’s a scenario in which the Spurs are looking to acquire a center but may not want to invest in the Duren-level draft price, this guy is worth the look.

Williams is huge, long, plenty athletic, and plays with serious physicality and a high-octane motor. He’s already got a decent coat of polish on both sides of the ball, but also appears to want to shove the basketball down the throat of defenders when he gets anywhere near the rim. Seriously, for such a chill dude he plays angrily.

Offensively he looks like he’ll be a nice pick-and-roll partner, and in the post he’s got a little hook with both hands that will be more than serviceable. He’s also shown snippets of a perimeter shot, though it is entirely ground-bound and dependent on others facilitating for him. And even then we haven’t seen enough evidence that it will ever be a consistent threat.

Defensively he looks like the prototype of an anchor big whose length, discipline and timing should control the basket area for years. If he shows an ability to switch at the next level it will boost his value even further. Like most bigs, it’ll take a second for him to adjust, but there is real potential here for a team willing to go the route of drafting a center. There are others later in the first round, but the drop-off in talent from Duren and Williams is palpable.

Just go get your man

Should the Spurs fail to find any takers on a trade-up package, there will still be plenty of useful, impactful options available, including some with upside if they’re willing to take a swing.

Tari Eason:

Height: 6’8
Weight: 215 (that seems wrong)
Wingspan: 7’2
Age: 21
Hands: giant

It feels like Eason has been a prevalent topic of conversation for months and months and months, and it’s easy to understand why. In fact, I don’t blame you if you want to put him in the category before this, despite my concerns.

What we know: Eason is an animal on defense — 3.1 stocks (steals and blocks) per game in just 24 minutes a night — a thunderbolt of a dunker, relentless attacker of the rim, a destroyer in the open court and a relentless attacker of the basket. He’s as physically imposing as it gets at the forward spot in this draft, and it’s impossible to imagine him failing to be impactful in SOME way. On top of that he’s developed a 3-point shot in the last year that makes him even more serviceable as a floor spacer in the half-court. These are all good things.

But I’m not sure how good he actually is at the game of basketball. His lack of offensive versatility is concerning, he turns the ball over like a mad man without racking up the assists (though he does leave plenty of potential assists on the floor), makes a lot of poor decisions, just sort of dribbles off his leg a lot, has basically no left hand and appears to have tunnel vision on drives.

If a developmental staff can really get to him, set up a residency in the film room and make the most out of his physical gifts and ability to draw fouls, then you might be cooking with gas. He certainly showed improvement over the last year, so even at age 21 it might be worth the stab.

Nikola Jovic:

Height: 6’11
Weight: 225
Wingspan: 7’
Age: 19

OK, quickly put the Jovic defensive tape to the side. What you’re watching is a big fluid athlete who can shoot, attack closeouts and play with a level of physicality and athleticism necessary to be a solid finisher and rebounder in the NBA. You’ll also see a guy who who is wonderfully fluid in the open court and flashes playmaking abilities you rarely see from players that size. This dude is lottery-bound.

OK, now watch the defense. Where in the world are you going to put him? He’s just asking to be hunted. Jovic isn’t strong or long enough to battle with bigs in the NBA, he isn’t quick enough laterally to deal with smaller guards or quick wings, and he’s not much of a factor off the ball or from the weak side. It is a guarantee that teams will single him out and isolate him, which could be really bad news. It feels like the best route would be to just tack on mass and give him a chance to deal with other front-court players, hopefully without detracting from what makes him special on offense.

There’s a place in basketball for his game right now, but it may be in something like a sixth-man role. At this point it’s difficult to imagine him playing for long stretches, particularly in a playoff series, without him being a huge liability. So how high do you want to draft this guy?

Max Christie:

Height: 6’6
Weight: 185
Wingspan: 6’8
Age: 19

I don’t know what to do with this guy because his jumper simply didn’t go in last season despite really looking like it should have. Christie was billed as a shooter heading into Michigan State, but he barely cracked the 30-percent mark during his only college season. The stroke looks really good, and really fluid, and consistent, and he shoots it with confidence — what the hell happened?

If you’re buying stock in Christie you’re probably looking at the 35-game sample size and pushing it to the side, because he looks and feels like a really solid shooting threat at the next level — particularly as movement shooter with some flashes of a mid-range game.

He’s also a solid on-ball defender. His arms aren’t super long but he uses them well to bother ball-handlers, he’s smart and he plays with physicality despite being pretty damn skinny.

Drafting him somewhere around the 20th pick means you really liked the way he looked on tape, because the numbers are disappointing if you consider him to be a high-end 3-and-D guy. But sometimes that’s what you have to rely on if you’re taking a swing at such a young player.

Gabriele Procida:

Height: 6’7
Weight: 190
Wingspan: 6’8
Age: 20

The Spurs have a jam-packed roster and three first-round picks, so they’re either going to have to clear some room, consolidate, or go back to their old draft-and-stash strategy. If they decide to go the latter, Procida is as prime a candidate as there is.

He has all the makings of a really fun 3-and-D player in the league. He’s a crazy athlete who loves to attack the rim and dunk on people, is excellent attacking closeouts and, oh yeah, is a 40-percent 3-point shooter. He has a serious motor, a bit of an attitude and can be relentless going after the ball, especially on the offensive glass.

Procida would be a project, and you never truly know how a role player’s game will translate from overseas to the NBA, but this guy’s tape pops. Might be worth the pick, and the wait.

Ismael Kamagate:

Height: 6’11
Weight: 227 lbs.
Wingspan: 7’4
Age: 21

If there’s a run on centers later in the first round, Kamagate’s name may be one to emerge. The athletic big man from France shows nice touch and skill on tape, to go along with flashes of a jump shot. There’s certainly something there as a shot-blocker in drop coverage, and he’s got a competitive motor to go along with it. I don’t know if he’s a player you take at 25, but if he’s available at 38 he’s worth a serious look.

Holy shit I’m tired of talking about centers today. That’s three now.

Josh Minott:

Height: 6’8
Weight: 205
Wingspan: 6’11
Age: 19

OK, I get it. Minott is a crazy athlete with a hell of a motor, huge defensive upside, a stock compiler, a lightning bolt in passing lanes, a big dunker, and a hell of a rebounder for such a skinny guy. He’s really young, and the energy with which he plays should translate to high-impact defensive upside.

But I have no idea what he’s going to be on the offensive side of the ball outside of a lob-catcher. Not a clue. He can’t shoot, I don’t know if he can dribble, he turns the ball over too easily, and he certainly doesn’t have an in-between game. Perhaps his gravity as an athlete around the rim will allow for some small playmaking upside, but I don’t know if he’s going to be able to make the passes if they’re there.

I feel like I’m being a little harsh, but the point is, you’re drafting this youngster for his defense and athleticism, and he could be very impactful in that capacity. If he develops any single area of his offensive game it’ll only make him that much more valuable.

Justin Lewis:

Height: 6’7
Weight: 235
Wingspan: 7’2
Age: 20

Just a god dang hoss right here (sorry, I’m losing steam). Not an explosive athlete, but his size, fluidity and length sure make him imposing enough. He’s got quick feet for such a big guy, and his wingspan and physicality cause major issues for perimeter players. It’s easy to see him becoming someone you stick on an opponent’s top option to make his life hell for an evening.

On top of that, he shot 36.1 percent in catch-and-shoot halfo-court situations, a number you’ll absolutely take for a projected 3-and-D guy. The major issue is his finishing. He shot just 47 percent around the basket last season for Marquette, which is pretty disappointing for a dude you’d love to see getting downhill. If he develops that part of his game and adds the ability to attack closeouts in a more spacious NBA, I feel like drafting him in the second round would be an absolute steal. In today’s wing-heavy league it feels like somebody is going to take a shot on this guy.

A few honorable mentions:

Sorry to Johnny Davis and Malaki Branham: It’s not them. I think they’re going to be solid-to-very good NBA guards, I’m just not sure why the Spurs would draft either of them, considering their last two draft investments and the fact I’m not sure there’s a big enough talent gap to justify adding another pick-and-roll dependent player with average athleticism. I’m preparing to eat crow on Davis.

Sorry to A.J. Griffin: The size, shooting, tough shot-making and potential self-creation are CLEARLY intriguing. But the injury concerns and the defense are just too scary.

Sorry to Bryce McGowens: The Spurs need a scorer badly, but the concern over playmaking ability and being an asset off the ball is concerning. He’ll probably be an impactful NBA player, but the ball-stopping and tunnel vision is not ideal.

Sorry to Jake Laravia: his pure shooting, headband, solid defense and old-man game. I think he has all the makings of one of those “this f***ing guy” guys who constantly frustrates opposing fan bases by making big plays they feel he has no business making.

OK, that’s enough for now. Enjoy the draft, everyone! We’ll chat later.