Jalen Duren and the dilemma of drafting big in today's NBA
True franchise centers have become basketball's unicorns, but teams are still constantly on the lookout for their next shot at a generational big man.
Assigning value to the center position in the NBA Draft has become an increasingly difficult exercise. As the game has shifted toward the perimeter, and much of the positional power has fallen into the hands of jumbo wings and guards, bigs are required to possess a certain level of skill, versatility and athleticism to even be able to stay on the court in high-leverage situations — specifically in the postseason — lest they be subject to unrelenting attacks on their pride.
Any team that drafts Jalen Duren in or around the top 10 is banking on a player who boasts those traits. The former Memphis Tiger was measured, diplomatic and tight-lipped during his pre-draft interview on Monday, opting not to speak specifically about individual workouts with teams.
"I'd have to talk with the team to see if I can disclose that information or not,” Duren responded, initially to a question about the Oklahoma City Thunder before giving a similar response regarding several other teams, including the Spurs. You can probably read between the lines a little there, but the approach is one that’s appreciated by front offices around the league, and certainly by the one in San Antonio.
At the very least, Duren looks the part. It’s difficult to believe an 18-year-old can already look more imposing than half the league, but here we are. Duren’s size (6’11, 250 pounds), length (7’5 wingspan) and freakish athleticism jump off the screen, and his ability to explode vertically as a shot-blocker and lob-catcher are what make GMs and fans alike salivate. Duren would likely play out a strong NBA career solely as a defender, rebounder and power-dunker if that’s the peak of what he became, but that’s not what we’re here to see. While there’s no questioning his physical maturity and nose for the ball, there’s certainly room to take a long look at the growth potential of his skill set.
It’s important to note Duren is the youngest player in the draft, and after reclassifying while in the high school ranks, was dropped into a situation in Memphis where he was immediately forced to star in a role that probably wasn’t best suited for him right away. But to his credit, he embraced it and had plenty of big performances along the way, particularly as a rim protector and rebounder.
Duren appears to be an ideal pick-and-roll big at the next level, given his almost certain level of gravitational pull. But for all the talent the Tigers had last season, point-guard play was not a strong point. They were not a good pick-and-roll team, and their inability to consistently put Duren or any of their roll men in advantageous positions was obvious, as they accounted for just 3.9 percent of their scoring offense, per Synergy data. But when he got the ball on the roll or slip, good things generally happened (1.16 points per possession). He projects to excel in that role as he operates and develops in the wide-open spaces of the NBA, but that’s not where Duren’s upside value is going to be measured. The big questions lie in his ability to create shots for himself and others when he’s met with resistance.
Flashes of the latter have been obvious, though. Duren is a quick thinker on the short roll, able to catch in the middle of the floor, lob the ball to teammates in the dunker spot when defenders step up, and kick to shooters in the corners and on the wings when help comes crashing down from the perimeter. From the post he’s willing to survey the landscape and effectively find teammates cutting and spotting up around the 3-point line. He isn’t the most accurate passer in the world right now, and some looks can be ill-advised, but those are issues that should be ironed out with time and run. Most importantly, the process itself is already pretty solid.
Deploying a big with playmaking capabilities is a massive luxury in the league today — an added element that could help differentiate Duren from the rest of the pack of centers in this draft. But here come the concerns.
Despite his size and athleticism, Duren was at best an average post-up player during his one year at Memphis. His footwork was anything but refined, and once defenses realized he hated using his left hand, opting instead to simply force his way inside with his right, life became even more difficult. On top of that, Duren lacked counter moves and touch around the basket when the defense played his right hand, which often resulted in a tendency to turn and throw or fade and push the ball toward the basket when he was cut off from getting to his initial desired spot.
Because of all the difficult looks he created for himself, Duren shot just 40 percent in post-up situations, a far cry from where you’d hope an athlete of his size and prospect of his caliber would be. Duren also averaged just 5.7 free-throw attempts per 40 minutes, an OK number in a vacuum but disappointing for a star big man whose strength should give interior defenses fits. And it wasn’t as if he was making teams pay when he did get to the line.
Duren’s shot is another major problem. He went just 8-for-22 on jumpers over the course of the entire season without taking a single 3-pointer, and he converted on just 62.5 percent of his free-throw attempts. When analyzing a big man as a top-10 pick in the modern NBA, these numbers are disappointing, even considering his age. But while there’s been plenty of criticism out there regarding his shot, I’m going to be a sheepishly optimistic voice in the dark.
When things go well, it doesn’t look terrible?
Where most big men rely on a more set shot with little elevation, Duren’s jumper actually looks like … a jumper. Still, it’s wildly inconsistent, the timing varies from attempt to attempt, his motion carries the ball across his body from the left side, his footwork is all over the place (there’s more footwork talk for you), and it all kind of culminates in one big mess.
But in moments of clarity, when Duren caught the ball in rhythm with his body squared to the basket and feet where they needed to be, the elevation and subsequent jumper actually looked pretty damn pure. On a few occasions he even flashed the makings of a turnaround, but at this juncture, the next step is paying attention to shot selection. With the lift he’s able to get along with his high release, it’s not about IF he’s got it, it’s about how, where and when. There’s something there with this kid, but oh buddy, it’s going to take some time to quiet all the moving parts — if he’s ever fully able to do so.
During the opening minutes of the Tigers’ NCAA Tournament matchup with Gonzaga, Duren went to work on two early post-ups against Chet Holmgren. On each possession, the skinny but rugged Holmgren shaded toward Duren’s left hip to deter him from going right. Duren obliged and went left, but the execution simply wasn’t there. Instead of going strong, utilizing a drop step and planting Holmgren under the rim, he brought the ball back to his right hand and through Gonzaga’s lanky big man on each attempt. The results weren’t pretty: one blocked shot, and one errant attempt at a reverse when the left side of the basket was there for the taking.
These are the moments that make you groan. You want it to be there. You want it to be easy. But it rarely is. It’s all stuff that will make GMs lose sleep the night before the draft if taking an upside swing on Duren with the ninth pick is one of the highest probable outcomes on your board. And what makes matters worse is knowing big men typically take the longest to develop out of all the positions on the floor. But for a player this young with plenty of untapped potential, that ride along the developmental curve could be worth it.
The drafting of Duren would also all but signal the end of the road for Jakob Poeltl in San Antonio, and keeping your incumbent starting center in tow for the final year of his contract as a rookie develops behind him during another rebuilding season doesn’t seem like a productive route to take for the player or team. Lame-duck situations are never healthy, so it is entirely possible the Spurs would move quickly to unload Poeltl to a competitive team in need of a big.
Say what you will about his lack of range and largely ground-bound game, but Poeltl was easily San Antonio’s second most important player last season. Dejounte Murray may have been the straw that stirred the drink, but Jakob was the glass into which it was poured. He spent much of the season on an island defensively, manning the back line admirably without much size alongside him to help deter the secondary and tertiary waves of players attacking the rim; offensively he was constantly in motion, acting as the hub of a motion offense, directing traffic via screens and re-screens, dribble-hand-offs and pick-and-rolls. He was the Spurs’ control tower — nearly everything went through and around him while he was on the floor.
If San Antonio did go the center route with the ninth pick and decided to move Poeltl in the process, it’s quite possible they would take a step back next season as Duren developed (or even Mark Williams, if an alternate situation presented itself), regardless of potential replacement player. If they’re comfortable with this, and if they’re confident in their ability to build out via a Poeltl trade or free agency, then take the proverbial plunge.
But unless they jump all in on a rebuild — and I’m talking really blow it up — it would be curious to see a team that’s been clear in its intentions to play competitive basketball opt for a route that could potentially push the timeline back even further. They’ve also made clear long-term ceiling is a priority, however, so attempting the balancing act may be worth it to them in the long run. Progress would still be attainable, but it would require marked internal improvement and likely some quality front-court replacement parts in the short term.
An investment in Duren would be a serious, multiyear commitment as the young man adjusts and develops at the professional level. And that’s fine if the Spurs plan to make him one of the focal points of the offense in the years to come. When you draft a center this high these days, you’re banking on him becoming a major contributor from both self-creation and playmaking standpoints.
If San Antonio believes he can develop into a guy they’d call the second- or third-best player on a potential title contender, then the risk is worth it. Those types of centers are rare in today’s game, and uniqueness can certainly be an element that sets certain teams apart from the rest of the herd. But if there’s significant doubt he’ll ever fully put the footwork, handling and shooting touch together in a package that’s markedly different than the ones you’d find in players later in the first round, then they’re running the risk of passing up on a prospect whose utility may be less in question over the long haul.
With Duren’s shot-blocking, rebounding and potential switchability on the perimeter, the path toward becoming an elite defender in the NBA is pretty straightforward if he puts in the work. He’s got the tools, all he needs is another coat (or four) of polish and seasoning. But if he’s able to bring the offensive repertoire up to par over the next few years, you’re talking about the type of player who can combat all the high-flying pterodactyls perched around the league’s perimeter, as well as the Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic behemoths who have been running the center position for years.
The word “if” can be a scary one, especially when the upward trajectory of your franchise is dependent on the most favorable of conditions. But the Spurs showed just one year ago they were willing to take a big risk by selecting the draft’s youngest player in Joshua Primo, and it’s difficult to believe that mindset has changed much in such a short period of time.
For teams not selecting among the very top prospects, big swings may be necessary to alter the fortunes of the organization. And taking Duren with the ninth pick would certainly qualify as that.