How the Spurs can capitalize on the pending Suns-Wizards trade

Washington may try to recoup assets for Chris Paul after its hand was forced in a one-sided transaction, and San Antonio could be waiting to help facilitate.

The NBA moves at such a hectic pace this time of year it’s almost difficult to believe the Denver Nuggets’ dominant Finals performance wrapped up only a week ago. Congratulations. Hell of a win. Y’all might be contenders for the next decade, you have the best player in the league and, respectfully, I hope you’ve enjoyed your 15 minutes. The league calendar does not allow for more celebration time than that, because the offseason is here and it’s time to make room.

While the initial roadmap for the Spurs on Thursday is about as clear-cut as it gets — select Victor Wembanyama with the first-overall pick, then profit — diligence remains due. As it stands, San Antonio owns picks Nos. 1, 33 and 44 in the upcoming draft, and there is a decent chance it remains that way considering the number of teams that are either confident in their positions or hoping to move up themselves. In my last newsletter, I attempted to identify a number of potential trade partners the Spurs could be eyeing ahead of Thursday if they decided a move to acquire a second first-round pick was worth their time, but things have changed a bit since then.

The Washington Wizards sent Bradley Beal to the Phoenix Suns on Father’s Day in exchange for mostly spare parts (but also Chris Paul), and it was about as one-sided as a blockbuster trade can get. Because of the no-trade clause in the now-former Washington star’s contract, he had absolute control over the proceedings. And the fact Beal’s agent Mark Bartelstein is the father of Suns CEO Josh Bartelstein made this whole thing a family affair that likely couldn’t have been derailed. Phoenix had nothing a rebuilding Wizards team would ever want in a trade like this, but it didn’t matter. Beal got to where he and his agent wanted to go, and there was very little the Wizards could realistically do about it. They essentially caved, but frankly, it was probably time to just rip off the Band-Aid anyway. That thing needed a reset.

But now, Washington has this piece in Paul it could potentially move elsewhere in an effort to recoup assets, and there are title contenders out there who could use a point guard of his stature. It’s a bit of a tricky situation, though, because if a team like the Lakers, Heat or Clippers feels it has a strong chance at signing Paul should he be waived, it may make it difficult to pull the trigger on a deal. But the transaction is not yet complete, and there is likely enough market competition to incentivize a trade proposal. And again, it would be stupid of the Wizards to not test said market. This is where the Spurs keep their phone lines open as a possible third or fourth party.

(Just to get this out of the way: While the idea of shifting the trade conversation from helping facilitate a Beal deal to offering assistance in a possible Damian Lillard transaction is understandable, it is highly, HIGHLY unlikely that dialogue happens prior to the draft. This isn’t to say there is no potential for a Dame trade in the future, but as we look at the prospects of San Antonio acquiring another first-rounder this summer, there is virtually no shot the Lillard situation resolves itself in the next two days. Also, before you ask, the Spurs will not be sending picks to acquire Paul.)

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The Lakers, Heat and Clippers all have first-round picks available this summer, and all three are obvious potential Paul destinations as teams hoping to win a title next season. But both Los Angeles teams are very limited in their abilities to send draft assets to Washington should a deal form, and while Miami still owns most of its picks, it certainly does not possess a surplus. The Spurs, however, have the assets to help sweeten the pot in any theoretical deal those teams could propose.

The framework laid out in my last newsletter has not changed outside of exchanging Beal for Paul: San Antonio could offer multiple picks to help drive the ‘Point God’ to either Los Angeles or Miami in exchange for a first-round pick this year. Additionally, if cap space is needed to help absorb a bad contract, the Spurs have it. If salary filler is required to make a Paul deal work — he will likely be guaranteed his full $30.8 million given the parameters of the pending trade, or at least close to it — they’ve got a few pieces they can shift around. They are very flexible and available at the right price, which is a product of the front office’s decision to save money over the last year despite having plenty of it. They didn’t know when they would have an opportunity to strike, but wasting that maneuverability when they were not trying to win in the first place never made any sense.

From San Antonio’s perspective, trade-up possibilities in the lottery seem fleeting. Teams in the top 10 are pretty much a no-go, as they’re all either out of the Spurs’ realistic price range or don’t own a pick that would be worth the potential cost, and the teams beyond that all have objectives that simply don’t jive with what San Antonio is trying to accomplish.

In the 11-through-16 pick range, Orlando, Oklahoma City, New Orleans and Utah are most likely all going to be looking to move up in some capacity, if not simply selecting in the spots they currently hold; Toronto is almost assuredly going to be picking at No. 13 or trading for an established guard given that Fred VanVleet just declined his player option (he could still return to the Raptors, but he will officially be an unrestricted free agent); and Atlanta ain’t giving San Antonio any more of its picks — the Spurs ain’t giving any back, either.

That leaves San Antonio looking at Nos. 17 and 18 as the highest realistic targets — the Clippers sit at No. 30, which could end up being a last-second target on draft night — an unfortunate truth for them considering who would likely be pulled from the board in the preceding picks. There could also be an opportunity with the Rockets at No. 20 if they have any interest in trading in the division, but that would be entirely separate from the Paul discussion.

Cason Wallace, a popular name on many Spurs fans’ wish lists, will likely be gone by then. His projectable ability to steady an offense while offering potential lockdown defense and shooting upside is going to be highly sought-after, and there are too many teams with both need at the position and interest in best players available.

Same goes for Kobe Bufkin — a player who may not be elite in any one area of the game but is very good in almost all of them. A jack of all trades who, in the right system, could really elevate to a level beyond what he showed at Michigan. And as gossip reaches a fever pitch around the league, it’s really beginning to sound like he has a promise from someone in the lottery.

As for Jalen Hood-Schifino, the 6’6 pick-and-roll aficionado with great vision and patient passing ability, a beautiful little pull-up mid-range game, and serious defensive chops? There are simply too many teams in that range (Toronto and Utah in particular) who need a point guard like that. Or just a player like that in general.

From there, this draft becomes much more of a crapshoot. So should the Spurs spend extra draft capital to move into the late teens, it would be because they believe in the upside of certain players in a strong class.

San Antonio has been drafting “best player available” for years now (or best player five seasons from now), and there are no expectations that approach will be altered even with the arrival of Wembanyama. It’s still trying to test the mettle of the current roster, and it needs time to understand exactly how all the pieces work together. This situation will not be microwaved.

And while players like Wallace, Bufkin and Hood-Schifino are likely going to be gone by the time the Lakers or Heat pick rolls around, there would be no shortage of upside swings available should the Spurs choose to take one. But therein lies the question: Is that the goal, or do they want to save their picks for next summer when they could own up to three first-round selections? As appealing as it sounds to jump in right now, there exists a scenario in which San Antonio holds off and cashes in assets a year from now, when it has a better understanding of the situation at hand.

In 2024, the Spurs have their own pick, Toronto’s top-six protected pick, and Charlotte’s lottery-protected pick, not to mention the rest of the assets that could begin to convey the very next season. As tempting as it may be to take the plunge, there’s real value in being able to trade an asset that would immediately convey, something San Antonio would be able to do ahead of the next draft cycle but does not have at the moment outside of its second-round picks.

I wish I could offer better insight into what the team is thinking at the moment, but I’m not even entirely sure they know. This whole thing is fluid, and my guess is there won’t be any movement until Thursday, if there’s any at all from the Spurs’ side of things. They’re going to sit patiently with cell phones in hand and watch the puzzle pieces fall into place. If someone starts slipping, or they get intel a team in the 20s may be after one of their targets at No. 33, they’ll do what they can to pounce. But until all this stuff plays out, there’s just no way to plan accordingly. Teams can prepare, but exact planning is futile ahead of a draft that could produce some fireworks.

I’ll leave it at this: Just keep an eye on what happens at No. 2 and/or No. 3 during the draft, because those could become real trigger points for various teams around the league. I personally tend to think both the Hornets and Blazers will make the picks in their respective spots based on some conversations with folks around the league, but even chalk movement like that could still set off a chain of events considering each team’s situation.

And if things start to blow up, the Spurs will be right there with picks, cap space and assets in hand, ready and waiting to capitalize on the right opportunity.

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I’d originally had a list of upside-swing prospects injected into this article, but it sort of took on a life of its own and I’m not going to add another 2000 words. That will be coming tomorrow! A lot of newsletters on the way over the next week or so, and a new podcast being recorded tomorrow as well (and then on Friday to recap the draft). Hope y’all are ready for constant content!

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