Jakob Poeltl, the Spurs, and the real cost of potential self-sabotage

As the trade deadline approaches, San Antonio must weigh the benefits of adding to its draft stash against the price it would pay for losing its starting center.

Photo courtesy of Bally Sports Southwest

The calculus behind decision-making for rebuilding teams around the trade deadline is pretty simple: If you can identify obvious opportunities to shift valuable veteran players into transactions that yield favorable returns and help to better fortify the foundation for your future, you’ve got to take advantage.

Given the context of these situations in general, utilizing available assets to effectively facilitate further growth is a responsible, pragmatic approach for a franchise operating on a youthful timeline. If the goal is to win later, and not now, then it wouldn’t be prudent to let those assets go to waste in the short term if they’re not part of the long-term plan; or worse, to eventually lose those players for nothing should they find the grass is greener elsewhere.

But underlying that logical thought process is the inherent, almost sinister self-sabotaging element of the equation. In this guy’s opinion, the word “tank” is borderline abused as a way to describe a rebuild strategy — there’s a difference between a fire sale and exploring options to deal veterans whose peak value is hitting at an inopportune time and place for the franchise — but however you decide to parse the parlance, trading good players for draft picks is going to make a team worse.

Clearly.

Still, the question remains: “How much worse is San Antonio willing to get ahead of the Victor Wembanyama draft?” As difficult as this season has been, it’s been more purgatory than hell. And friends, let me tell you, there is a basketball hell out there if the Spurs really wanted to base jump through the seven rings. But unless you’re morbidly into that kinda thing, you can rest assured they have no interest in the descent.

At the center of this particular conversation is Jakob Poeltl, who over the last two seasons has been doing everything humanly possible to hold his own as San Antonio’s anchor. And as his name continues to pop up in various trade rumors, the idea of dealing Poeltl for anything less than an offer they simply cannot refuse has become less palatable by the day given the myriad ways he impacts a game.

On Sunday night against Sacramento, for example, Poeltl was again one of the primary life vests that kept the Spurs afloat in an eventual 132-119 loss. He led the team in scoring with 23 points on 10-for-12 shooting, and defensively he was left on an island for much of the night to deal with the human wrecking ball that is Domantas Sabonis. On this kind of evening, when you watch Poeltl doing damn near everything on the floor — scoring, rebounding, defending, setting screens, and facilitating from the elbow — it hits you.

Holy s*** things could become absolutely brutal if they trade this guy.

At this point, for a team possessing so many weaknesses, all the numbers in the world probably don’t do Poeltl’s impact justice considering the lack of winning. But they’re worth a peek anyway. His block rate is down slightly (from 2.9 percent to 2.3 percent this season), but he’s allowing players to shoot just 48.2 percent at the basket, and his 10.18 rim contests per 75 possessions is the sixth-highest number in the league among players who have logged at least 500 minutes this season. On top of all that, his defensive-rebound rate of 26 percent is six points higher than it was last year and is easily a career best.

Offensively, Poeltl’s true shooting mark of 63.7 percent is the highest it’s been since he took over as San Antonio’s full-time starter at center, his free-throw rate is the highest of his entire tenure with the Spurs — by the way, he’s shooting better than 70 percent from the line since returning from the bone bruise to his left knee in mid-December — and he’s doing all of this while posting the highest usage and assist rates of his career.

But as impressive as these numbers are, they’re all too often dragged down by the problems that exist elsewhere. The Spurs are in the midst of an historically bad season on defense — their defensive rating of 119.9 points allowed per 100 possessions would be the worst ever — and much of it starts with the constant barrage of opponent rim attacks. San Antonio is allowing more shots inside the restricted area than any other team in the league for the second consecutive season, and not even someone of Poeltl’s quality is going to be able to consistently thwart that type of relentless pressure without help. Especially considering all the responsibilities he has on the offensive end to boot.

All season Popovich and the players have attributed most of the primary defensive issues to miscommunication and, at times, a straight up lack of focus and effort. You don’t have to watch every game to notice it, either. When those perimeter turnstiles are spinning, when those switches are flubbed, and when cutters are left untethered, there’s only so much the guy on the back line can do.

“Jakob has a tough job. He’s the anchor of our defense, and our defense isn’t excellent. There’s no tiptoeing around that,” Josh Richardson said. “I think Jakob does a good job of being a security blanket. He talks, he moves his feet, he’s smart, he knows when to bluff and when to go, and it’s tough to find a big that’s as solid in everything he does.”

To his credit, Poeltl has embraced the less-than-glamorous role. He called himself “a pretty patient guy” after Monday’s loss, but his reddened skin and the bruises and scratches on his arms told the story of someone who’s being put through the ringer.

“It is my job. I have been trying to do that my whole career,” he said. “There are games when there is a little more to do, when we make those mistakes and more guys (are getting) to the rim … we’ve got to be better at finding each other, finding the rotations on defense, like being able to be able to communicate those situations.

“Hopefully, like over time, over the years, it will become just second nature. That’s how it goes.”

Amid all the trade talk that’s beginning to bubble violently to the surface, that last sentence is an interesting one. Poeltl has always expressed his appreciation for San Antonio as his basketball home, and the Spurs value him tremendously. It’s why the chances of their relationship extending beyond this season are pretty high, all things considered. Still, the coming weeks will present a dilemma for at least the team’s side of the proceedings, and it’s now we circle back to the question: At what point does doing business with the draft as the primary focus become too costly?

The Spurs could own up to 11 first-round picks over the next six drafts so long as they all convey. And unless another team comes in with a package even slightly less sizable than the one received in the Dejounte Murray trade, it’s entirely possible San Antonio looks at its substantial asset stash and decides it’s enough for now — that keeping Poeltl around to help strengthen its base is worth more than adding a couple of likely non-lottery picks to the top of the pile.

Jakob’s impact on the current group has been made abundantly clear by now, but consider the stabilizing force he’d be for incoming rookies as well. Should the Spurs be fortunate enough to win the Wembanyama sweepstakes, Poeltl’s presence would mean San Antonio wouldn’t have to throw its new young superstar into the meatgrinder that is the NBA’s painted area on a nightly basis.

If it turns out to be Scoot Henderson or one of the Thompson twins, they’ve got a readymade, high-level pick-and-roll partner already in the chamber to help make life easier during their formative years. If it’s Cam Whitmore or Brandon Miller who comes to town, either would have in place the kind of excellent facilitating big man you want to pair with a scoring or sharpshooting wing off the ball. And despite Poeltl being 27 years old, he’s got plenty of years left in a body that depends more on intelligence than it does athleticism.

Should the Spurs decide to keep him around, the money side of the equation really isn’t all that complicated, either.

As I wrote here, and as has since been reported elsewhere, it’s likely the Spurs’ center will command in the neighborhood of $20 million annually. If that’s the case, competition for Poeltl’s services in free agency will be somewhat limited, as most contenders do not have that kind of money laying around. The Lakers will likely have space, but with only four contracts on the books for next season they also have a ton of roster spots to fill with what could be around $34 million. The Kings, Jazz and Timberwolves are projected to have room as well, but each team has a center already in place.

Furthermore, if by that time Poeltl has a change of heart and decides he wants to play for a contender, there would likely be no shortage of suitors interested in a sign-and-trade over the summer. So in totality, there would not be a tremendous amount of risk in holding on to him at the deadline should the right offers not hit the table.

As for their own finances, the Spurs currently sit with roughly $27 million in practical cap space at a honking $53 million below the luxury-tax line. With the cap expected to rise another $10 million or so this summer, and with a new CBA and another possible significant cap spike hitting after the 2023-24 season, San Antonio is in no imminent danger of harming its bottom line, even as Keldon Johnson’s extension kicks in and Devin Vassell almost assuredly signs one of his own during the offseason.

And as the Spurs continue to use their space by building through the draft, making shrewd trades and re-signing their own players to front-loaded deals — make use of the extra money now instead of later when the payroll starts to balloon — they’ll eventually be able to exceed the salary cap using Bird Rights whenever that time comes.

From a big-picture perspective, it’s not as if trading Poeltl for a middling pick or two would totally derail the rebuild, but the potential for a short-term self-sabotage in that situation is real. The Spurs are already “competing” for the worst record in basketball with him in tow, so allowing the floor to fall even further could prove detrimental in the immediate future and potentially delay progress.

General Manager Brian Wright said after the Murray trade they want this team to get back to competing at a high level as soon as possible, but unless a potential Poeltl trade yielded a return that’s unquestionably higher than the perceived market value, it would at least appear to signal a more long-haul approach. Yes, San Antonio is young, but with both Johnson and Vassell soon to be moving into the rookie-extension stages of their careers, there’s not much time to waste. This team has some rope with which to work, but it won’t be long before the actual tug-of-war begins in earnest.

Jakob Poeltl is a uniquely skilled player at his position whose contributions to the team are almost exclusively positive. He’s low-maintenance, he won’t break the bank, and as long as he remains healthy his value isn’t going to significantly diminish in the years to come if another trade opportunity eventually presents itself once the Spurs’ roster is more fully formed.

But that’s a topic for another day. Right now, it all comes down to value for San Antonio, and how it can strike the right balance between stockpiling assets and maintaining a proper support system in order to prepare for the long road ahead.