As trade season unofficially begins, Jakob Poeltl's name remains high on list of intrigue

In Part 1 of our deadline rundown, we parse through the context and conversation surrounding the Spurs' starting center and take a look at what might happen in the weeks ahead.

If as an NBA fan you marked your calendars for Dec. 15, you are officially a card-carrying member of the Basketball Sickos Club. And as a fellow degenerate, I say that affectionately, with glass raised and a knowing glance. Here’s to you, friends.

On Thursday, the majority of players who signed free-agent contracts over the summer became trade-eligible, thus kicking off the unofficial start of trade season. This time of year used to represent no more than a blip for the Spurs, a team that prioritized roster continuity and protected its own draft picks — its lifeblood — with a level of tenacity that’s uncommon around the league.

But that was then, when winning was a possibility every single season, and the blueprint for success was firmly intact. This is now, an era defined by change they hope will return the franchise to long-term on-court stability. As evidenced by dealings last season and over the summer, San Antonio is open for business if the price is right.

Personally, I find this time of year to be exhausting. While I am fascinated by the team-building process and all that it entails — again, Basketball Sicko Club member here — the deluge of trade hypotheticals and empty-rumor reporting is more time-consuming than it is productive. Except for the clicks generated, I suppose. Clicks equal productivity in this world.

But all that aside, I’ll gladly step off my curmudgeon’s soapbox, as trade season has become very important to the Spurs. Nothing that happens between now and the Feb. 9 deadline is going to have a massive impact on Feb. 10, but there very well may be a transaction or two (or more) that affects the future of the franchise. After all, “the future” is why we’re all paying attention to San Antonio right now anyway. And until it’s got the players in place that will make it a contender in the years ahead, the trade market will act as a critical tool for the rebuild process.

So, to my friends who have sent me countless trade-machine links via text, direct message and group chat: Bring ‘em on … I guess.

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The Spurs are essentially working with a blank slate. With nearly $30 million in practical cap space, they have all the wiggle room in the world with which to maneuver, and the types of salary-matching restrictions in place for teams near or over the cap essentially do not apply.

But San Antonio isn’t exactly in pursuit of contracts anyway. Unless Giannis Antetokounmpo (just throwing an untouchable name out there) suddenly becomes available, the focus of any transaction will be attaining draft capital or young assets in return for established veterans who can help contending teams win now. The only exception would come if another team wanted to utilize the Spurs’ cap space as a dumping ground for a bad contract, which San Antonio would only consider if draft picks were attached as a from of payment for its trouble.

The logistical side of this trade-season preview (or whatever we’re calling it) is going to be kept short, because there really isn’t much need to go on a full deep-dive into the cap-machination element of the situation. The Spurs can basically operate in whatever way they would like in the coming weeks given their financial flexibility, with very few restrictions in place to hinder them along the way.

For San Antonio, the most complicated decisions will be made in the valuation of its own players, and that of whatever offer might be on the table.

The rumors circulating around Jakob Poeltl since last season have been real, to the point he expressed his relief after not being dealt at the deadline last February. And the appeal is understandable. Poeltl has arguably become a top-10 center in the NBA playing within this system, and his $9.4-million expiring contract is about as easy to move as it gets — so long as a team is willing to deal with the “expiring” part of the equation.

The starting lineups of NBA champions over the last decade have had (for the most part) at least one thing in common: a defensive-minded, low-maintenance, opportunistic center that allows the offense to flow around them, not through them. There’s a reason teams are interested in Poeltl, and it begins with the idea he could theoretically fit seamlessly within almost any system unless floor-spacing on the perimeter is a requirement. Otherwise, he’s got everything else in the bag.

But what may have been the most obvious move on the board following the trade of Dejounte Murray and the signaling of a real rebuild has become, well, less obvious. And for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, the Spurs love Poeltl, and the feeling has long been reciprocated. He’s been a huge part of what San Antonio does on both sides of the ball on the court, and has been the exact fit they’ve always looked for from a cultural standpoint. On top of that, at 27 years old, he’s young enough that his place in the Spurs’ age timeline isn’t much of a concern at this point. Given he’s not overly dependent on his athleticism, Poeltl has plenty of strong years ahead of him, and his presence on the floor has aided critically in the development of the young roster.

Now is about the time folks may be asking, “OK, so what’s the difference between this and the Murray situation last summer? Poeltl is a year older, but somehow he fits the timeline and Dejounte didn’t? Make it make sense.” This is a discussion that can be dissected in a number of different ways, but only really needs two points in the outline.

For one, the situations aren’t all that dissimilar in reality. San Antonio General Manager Brian Wright said following the Murray trade the team did not enter the offseason planning to trade him, which is a statement that lines up with the small amount of intel I’d been privy to in the months leading up to the move. But when a team is in rebuild mode, and it does not possess a superstar or prototypical foundational cornerstone — Murray is a very good player, but he is not that — it has to be open for business if the price is right.

Poeltl and the Spurs are wading into similar waters here. While San Antonio may not be actively shopping its center, it’s certainly listening to callers. And as was the case for Murray, there’s a price tag for Jakob — call it two first-round picks and/or a similar caliber of young player as a baseline, per speculation from sources — from which the team is unlikely to budge. If they don’t get what they want, the Spurs would be just fine moving forward with Poeltl in tow, and are confident they’d be able to re-sign him this summer.

As for the second point in the outline, the money is different in this case, as is the level of certainty surrounding the player’s future plans. On one hand, there is little doubt Murray will pursue a contract that could net him upwards of $40 million annually when his current one expires at the end of next season. When we talked about the issues with the Murray timeline, it wasn’t necessarily an age thing. It was about the idea of giving max-level money to a player who more accurately fits the profile of a No. 2 or 3 option before landing an elite prospect — a difficult task when said player’s quality was likely to lead the team away from the top of the draft.

Once that type of money is committed to a player, the cap space required to chase big-name free agents — which hasn’t exactly been the best course of action for small-market San Antonio over the years anyway — is compromised. From there the team would’ve been left hoping for a star to become available, and that it would have had the assets necessary to compete in trade discussions. Either that, or extremely good luck in the draft. This is a path plenty of teams take, but it’s a difficult one to traverse. Add to that the potential star power within the upcoming rookie class, and the idea of going extremely young and sacrificing a couple of seasons in order to set themselves up for the long haul became much more palatable, if not flatly the best move to make under the circumstances.

Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports wrote recently a poll of league executives had the valuation of Poeltl’s next contract in a range between $15 million and $25 million annually, a relatively wide gap and perhaps a sign of uncertainty in terms of what teams are willing to pay the big man. But the middle of that range seems about right, and at roughly half of what a new Murray contract would’ve commanded, ~$20 million is a number the Spurs can stomach moving forward without significantly compromising their ability to pay players like Devin Vassell and others this summer and in the coming years.

In a nutshell, the decisions San Antonio has made and will continue to make are based on which action provides it the greatest level of optionality during the rebuild. But “optionality” doesn’t necessarily equate simply to “number of assets.” Much like Murray before him, Poeltl is a viable option for the Spurs’ on-court future just as he is as an asset. But given the likely financial picture of the investment that could await them, as well as the difference in value on the trade market between Murray and Poeltl — Jakob isn’t going to command three first-round picks and a first-round swap the way Dejounte did — San Antonio would be just fine keeping its center around if other teams are not willing to pay the price of doing business.

As for those other teams, the current messiness of the NBA landscape isn’t providing a clear view of what’s in store. The Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls, two organizations that have been most prominently linked to Poeltl at times over the last year, are both sliding in the standings. If they don’t pull out of their respective difficult situations in the next month or so, there’s a real chance they won’t be buyers at the deadline. Sending away assets for a player on an expiring contract during what may be a lost season is not a move you’ll often see teams make, even if they intend to re-sign that player. That type of work is typically reserved for summertime.

Beyond that, if the Lakers are interested, would their 2027 and 2029 first-round picks — their earliest available picks — be enough to entice the Spurs? That’s a long way down the road for a team that doesn’t plan on hanging around in the cellar for an extended period of time. Would the Warriors be intrigued enough by Poeltl to pull the plug on James Wiseman? Are the Celtics confident Robert Williams’ knee is going to hold up during what they hope is another long playoff run?

There are more questions than answers at the moment, as most teams are still evaluating their current situations. But much will change over the course of the next seven-plus weeks, and keeping an eye on the standings will likely be the best way to monitor the emergence of potential suitors.

Until then, avoiding significant injury is critical, and San Antonio has shown it is not messing around with the health of its players this season. The worst outcome in all of this would be the loss of that aforementioned optionality as the deadline approaches. And if the Spurs have seemed overprotective, rest assured it’s because they’re doing what they feel is best for their future in more ways than one.

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Stay tuned in the near future for Part 2, where we’ll take a look at the rest of the roster and the value of other potential trade assets. Until then, if you’d like to keep the conversation going, please feel free to comment or join the chat below via the Substack app!