So piecing the three previews together, MTs big board looks like:
1. Wemby
2. Scooty
3. Amen
4. Hendricks(!)
5. Jarace
6. Whitmore
7. Black
8. Asuar
9. Miller (though maybe off his draft board entirely)
The Miller case is so murky, and further complicated for the Spurs by Primo. I personally think that the initial reporting + headlines vastly overstated Miller's role in what happened, and he's never going to fully recover from that. I think so much of what's out there has an explanation that makes him seem innocent/unknowing of what was going on, but at some point, when you are coming up for an excuse for 2, 3, 4 different seemingly damning things, it feels futile. IDK what'll happen if we end up outside the top 3 and he's available. I do think he'd be a great fit on our roster strictly looking at basketball.
Haven’t decided on an order yet, but that’s at least close!
There are many lenses through which to view the storyline, but I’m going strictly off police testimony. He brought the gun, he was there, his car had bullet holes in it. His level of involvement is obviously important, but the decision-making to even put himself in that situation is worthy of serious criticism at the very least, whether he knew his friend’s intentions or not. As you said, when you’re trying to excuse multiple elements of a single case, it’s difficult to look past the complicity. Then tack on the Spurs’ general practices and their very recent past with Primo, it all leads to a very unlikely draft scenario.
Even If the Spurs feel the same way that you (and I) do about Miller, hopefully they’ll effectively maintain the charade that they have interest in him, if for no other reason than to facilitate a trade with a team that has fewer concerns about him. Considering that multiple draft experts having him as high as number two, if San Antonio doesn’t land in the top 3 and he’s still on the board, just passing on him completely rather than using him as potential trade capital seems like malpractice.
“Malpractice” seems a bit extreme, especially considering the way trades can complicate things. If they find a deal that directly involves selecting Miller and falling back like one spot, great. But my guess is there will be teams who don’t believe the Spurs will take him, so why would they pay up if they believe he’ll be there for them? And if you get too cute by trading back multiple spots, you could entirely miss the guy you really want. Sometimes, if you believe in the player you’re picking, you just pick them.
Beyond that, while I know a number of national mock drafters have Miller high on their boards, I’ve spoken with plenty of folks who don’t. There definitely isn’t consensus on the guy. The Spurs will undoubtedly explore options if it comes to that, especially if they have a significant slide, but I don’t believe in this idea of ‘you MUST take him and get assets out of him, otherwise it’s irresponsible.’ In my mind you only mess around if you are 100 percent certain of the outcome. If you aren’t, then just pick your player. Because involving other teams can get slippery.
Perhaps “malpractice” is a little strong. I just worry that if the Spurs end up at say #5 or 6, they might reach rather than take advantage of a team that is amped for Miller. Sounds like you don’t think they can bluff anyone on this. It may be moot anyway. I doubt he drops below 4 and I suspect he is not in the Spurs’ top #4.
Once we know the order it’ll be much easier to try and project what’s going to happen. There’s an interesting number of teams at the top who could choose a positional fit over best player, potentially even at No. 2! Miller will be coveted because of his shooting ability, for sure, and there are definitely teams who won’t be as affected by the off-court stuff. Will be a really interesting draft.
Agreed. And I think that if Detroit, Charlotte, or Indiana end up in the number two or three slot, any of them might value Miller more than Scoot or Amen, considering their strength at PG. If the Spurs drop out of the top three, my hope would be that some of those teams end up there. Regardless, thanks for the great analysis.
Things can change in the next month, especially once the combine is complete. But I just think he has too much to offer. A slide outside the top 10 is possible, but probably unlikely.
Lemme expand a little... like Black, Simmons wasn’t a shooter; and like Black, he had all the playmaking and defense stuff. But he was at a different level athletically and 3-4 inches taller. We tend to forget given everything that’s happened with him, but that guy was so damn good, so impactful, so unique. Shane his career has gone this way.
So piecing the three previews together, MTs big board looks like:
1. Wemby
2. Scooty
3. Amen
4. Hendricks(!)
5. Jarace
6. Whitmore
7. Black
8. Asuar
9. Miller (though maybe off his draft board entirely)
The Miller case is so murky, and further complicated for the Spurs by Primo. I personally think that the initial reporting + headlines vastly overstated Miller's role in what happened, and he's never going to fully recover from that. I think so much of what's out there has an explanation that makes him seem innocent/unknowing of what was going on, but at some point, when you are coming up for an excuse for 2, 3, 4 different seemingly damning things, it feels futile. IDK what'll happen if we end up outside the top 3 and he's available. I do think he'd be a great fit on our roster strictly looking at basketball.
Haven’t decided on an order yet, but that’s at least close!
There are many lenses through which to view the storyline, but I’m going strictly off police testimony. He brought the gun, he was there, his car had bullet holes in it. His level of involvement is obviously important, but the decision-making to even put himself in that situation is worthy of serious criticism at the very least, whether he knew his friend’s intentions or not. As you said, when you’re trying to excuse multiple elements of a single case, it’s difficult to look past the complicity. Then tack on the Spurs’ general practices and their very recent past with Primo, it all leads to a very unlikely draft scenario.
The whole thing is really sad.
Masterful handling of the Miller situation in the article.
Thank you, I’m glad it read well. It deserves sensitivity and I hopefully provided that.
Even If the Spurs feel the same way that you (and I) do about Miller, hopefully they’ll effectively maintain the charade that they have interest in him, if for no other reason than to facilitate a trade with a team that has fewer concerns about him. Considering that multiple draft experts having him as high as number two, if San Antonio doesn’t land in the top 3 and he’s still on the board, just passing on him completely rather than using him as potential trade capital seems like malpractice.
“Malpractice” seems a bit extreme, especially considering the way trades can complicate things. If they find a deal that directly involves selecting Miller and falling back like one spot, great. But my guess is there will be teams who don’t believe the Spurs will take him, so why would they pay up if they believe he’ll be there for them? And if you get too cute by trading back multiple spots, you could entirely miss the guy you really want. Sometimes, if you believe in the player you’re picking, you just pick them.
Beyond that, while I know a number of national mock drafters have Miller high on their boards, I’ve spoken with plenty of folks who don’t. There definitely isn’t consensus on the guy. The Spurs will undoubtedly explore options if it comes to that, especially if they have a significant slide, but I don’t believe in this idea of ‘you MUST take him and get assets out of him, otherwise it’s irresponsible.’ In my mind you only mess around if you are 100 percent certain of the outcome. If you aren’t, then just pick your player. Because involving other teams can get slippery.
Perhaps “malpractice” is a little strong. I just worry that if the Spurs end up at say #5 or 6, they might reach rather than take advantage of a team that is amped for Miller. Sounds like you don’t think they can bluff anyone on this. It may be moot anyway. I doubt he drops below 4 and I suspect he is not in the Spurs’ top #4.
Once we know the order it’ll be much easier to try and project what’s going to happen. There’s an interesting number of teams at the top who could choose a positional fit over best player, potentially even at No. 2! Miller will be coveted because of his shooting ability, for sure, and there are definitely teams who won’t be as affected by the off-court stuff. Will be a really interesting draft.
Agreed. And I think that if Detroit, Charlotte, or Indiana end up in the number two or three slot, any of them might value Miller more than Scoot or Amen, considering their strength at PG. If the Spurs drop out of the top three, my hope would be that some of those teams end up there. Regardless, thanks for the great analysis.
So this tells me Ausar isn’t dropping outside top ten. Bummer. Was hoping we could trade up for a second 1st rounder.
Things can change in the next month, especially once the combine is complete. But I just think he has too much to offer. A slide outside the top 10 is possible, but probably unlikely.
Is Black a better prospect than Ben Simmons was?
No. Simmons was an elite prospect.
Lemme expand a little... like Black, Simmons wasn’t a shooter; and like Black, he had all the playmaking and defense stuff. But he was at a different level athletically and 3-4 inches taller. We tend to forget given everything that’s happened with him, but that guy was so damn good, so impactful, so unique. Shane his career has gone this way.
Lol *shame
Agree. But when I was reading your description of Black I was picturing Simmons.
And yes, hindsight is 20/20. how one start doesn’t dictate how one will finish (and Simmons is still young- great buy low candidate).