With a steep asking price attached, the market for Jakob Poeltl may turn out chilly
There are options out there, but San Antonio's path toward moving on from its center may prove too complicated and risky to traverse.
It’s been a relatively quiet leadup to this season’s trade deadline thus far, and on the surface there hasn’t yet been much indication we’ll see a noisy spike over the next two weeks — at least in terms of blockbusters. On one hand, potential big-time buyers seem set on reining in spending; on the other, possible sellers have, for the most part, made clear their most valuable assets are not going to be made available for a bargain.
But on yet another pair of hands (if you’ve got one), the league is as wide open as it’s been in some time, so the potential for even fringe contenders to look to improve along the margins is real; and at the same time, there are a number of teams out there whose plans have gone awry this season, and could look to join the rest of the sellers in the cellar and reorganize their timelines. It’s an interesting year.
There had been some extra aggression during recent transactional periods, with the Atlanta Hawks’ sizable trade package for Dejounte Murray being the summertime crescendo that led to the climactic splurges from the Minnesota Timberwolves and Cleveland Cavaliers for Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, respectively. But at some point the bubble was going to burst and prices were going to be reset, and those transactions last summer may be what sends us into a chilly trade market for large-scale deals. Teams simply cannot let overspending by some eager ownership groups dictate the cost of doing business in the future for everyone else.
As it stands now, 21 NBA franchises have at least one outgoing first-round pick in the coming years, with 11 of them — all of which are teams trying to win now — owing multiple. This means the likeliest buyers are operating with half-stocked or (in some cases) mostly bare cupboards, and a reluctance to part ways with the remaining assets in their possession.
For the Spurs, that means a small pool of realistic suitors for Jakob Poeltl. There may be a large amount of interest across the league, but if San Antonio sticks to its steep asking price of two first-round picks — or some combination of picks and prospects — the number of potential landing spots could prove to be minimal. The team is fine with that, though, as there is no feeling of urgency to move on from its starting center. But optionality is always ideal, and the Spurs hope that, through either desperation or an all-in mentality, at least one team will be willing to take the plunge and announce its full-throated intention to contend for this season’s title by meeting their demands.
The list of organizations in the running might be short, but there is a list, nonetheless.
Boston Celtics
There may not be a more complete team on paper than the Boston Celtics, and at +390 they’re the favorites in Vegas to win the whole thing in June. It’s easy to understand why, too. Boston has essentially run it back with a roster that took the Golden State Warriors to six games in the 2022 NBA Finals and added Malcolm Brogdon to the mix along the way. It’s got the star power in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and an arsenal of high-level role players at every position to keep the engine humming.
The Celtics could win the championship as presently constituted, without a doubt, but the one position that remains in question is the man in the middle. And this isn’t really about the personnel they have in place. When healthy, the combination of Rob Williams and the ageless Al Horford is as solid as it gets, but “when healthy” is the operative phrase here.
Williams tore his meniscus late last March, and since then has required two surgeries on his left knee — one immediately following the initial tear, and another arthroscopic procedure in September to “remove loose bodies and address swelling” in the same knee, per the team. Despite the fact he’s played well, with per-36 numbers that have largely been up to par with his normal output, he’s only appeared in 16 games this season and hasn’t seen close-to-normal minutes until recently. On top of that, he’s also been inactive for four games since his return to the court in mid-December, which is another interesting consideration come playoff time.
Jared Weiss of The Athletic wrote in-depth about the Poeltl scenario from Boston’s perspective, and in the article he explained Celtics management has recognized the possibility that Williams could miss games during the postseason. That situation, coupled with Horford’s preference to play the four in order to limit the physical wear and tear on his body, could present a real issue moving forward the acquisition of Poeltl would help resolve.
So, in totality, are we simply talking about a high-end insurance policy? Pretty much! Poeltl would likely slot in as a rotation piece, as Williams (again, when healthy) has solidified his place as the starter in Boston. But I do believe there’s a different way to analyze this scenario.
As well-equipped as the Celtics are to make a deep run, a title is not a certainty by any stretch. The Eastern Conference is loaded at the top, and Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Brooklyn are all teams that put a tremendous amount of pressure on the opposing defensive interior. If Boston were to add Poeltl, it would not only address a potential problem area, but it would make itself the clear-cut favorite to win it all.
Poeltl’s defense and rebounding would obviously be welcomed, but consider the way he’d fit as a playmaking hub for the Celtics’ wings and as a pick-and-roll partner for their guards. We’ve seen what he’s been able to accomplish with an inexperienced roster in San Antonio, now imagine the results with All-Stars running around him. The Celtics wouldn’t simply be paying a new insurance premium in acquiring Poeltl, they’d be making a real improvement to the roster.
And yet, the biggest issue here might be the team’s understandable reluctance to pay a high price for an expiring deal. Boston is already well into the luxury tax, Grant Williams will be entering restricted free agency this summer, and with Rob Williams already locked up at a cheaper price than what Poeltl will command, it seems like a stretch to predict there’s a deal to be made unless San Antonio makes some concessions. Additionally, Rob Williams and Poeltl can’t play together, so one of them would have to be moved during the offseason should the Celtics decide to take the plunge and sell part of their future in order to make the move.
In the end, it all comes down to how much Boston wants to stack its roster for the upcoming playoff run and pursuit of another championship.
Toronto Raptors
It’s difficult to get a read on the Raptors’ intentions. They’ve taken a major step back this season, to the point that even making it to the Play-In Tournament is likely going to be a slog. So what in the world is their direction here?
If you are to believe most of the reporting coming out of Toronto, there certainly won’t be any sort of fire sale. Asking prices are understandably high for players like Pascal Siakam and the mystical O.G. Anunoby (the most untouchable touchable player in league history), and it seems this team’s likeliest path is that of a retooler, not a full-on rebuilder.
The synergy between Poeltl, San Antonio and Toronto is obvious. The Raptors drafted Jakob and inherently still value him, and the two teams have made it clear they’ve got no issues doing business with one another. But the problem here is both sides might be approaching this deadline with similar mindsets — their players are available, but at a significant cost.
Still, there’s a difference here. Unlike the Spurs, Toronto has a core of established veterans, which makes its downturn from last season even more puzzling. But the one area it’s been trying to address for some time now is consistency at the center position. The Raptors are one of nine teams in the league that owns all its first-round picks moving forward, so the idea of immediately addressing their big-man issue by trading for Poeltl could be palatable should they decide to move forward with most of the current roster.
But, as always, the sticking point is that expiring contract. Toronto is already heavily invested in Siakam, Anunoby, Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., and even Chris Boucher, and you can’t forget the extension Scottie Barnes is likely going to sign next summer. Adding another potential $20-million annual contract to the books would make a dent for a team that’s already flirting with the luxury-tax threshold. But with that threshold expected to rise again this summer, the situation is manageable, especially if Boucher is sent back to San Antonio in order to match salaries.
In the end, it’s all going to come down to how close the Raptors believe they are to fielding a contender, but there’s also a way for this team to have its cake and eat it, too. Trading for Poeltl would shore up the center position, and they could also make a subsequent move involving one of their three forwards, Siakam, Anunoby or Barnes, to either bring in more picks or add depth. General manager Masai Ujiri has pulled off some serious moves in the past, so we know he’s got it in him to wheel and deal.
If Toronto leans toward a teardown and a full rebuild around Barnes, then none of this conversation matters, and there won’t be a move for Poeltl. But if it wants to make the most out of what it currently has and avoid yet another step back, there is a real path toward a solid retooling if it plays its cards right.
Golden State Warriors
Much of what was written about Boston above also applies to the Warriors. While Golden State has had to do some roster shuffling, as well as integrate its young players as part of the rotation, the core is still intact and should theoretically be in a good place come playoff time.
Theoretically.
The Warriors have been an enigma this season — outstanding at home (18-6) and just dreadful on the road (6-18) — and currently sit ninth in the Western Conference. It’s difficult to believe those home-away splits will last through 82 games, but we’re now well past the halfway point of the campaign and these issues have persisted.
Still, as Anthony Slater of The Athletic wrote recently, it’s more likely this team does work around the edges than goes all in for a big move, despite having potentially intriguing prospects and picks in its stash. Much like Boston, Golden State has only one outgoing first-round pick owed in the next couple of years; but unlike the Celtics, the Warriors have three young prospects coming off the bench in James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody who could be appealing for a rebuilding team like the Spurs.
But Golden State has been adamant in recent years about the desire to navigate its way from one era to the next without having to take a big step back. Going all in on Poeltl would mean sacrificing a major part of that plan for short-term gains, something they’ve shown very little interest in doing up to this point.
It’s also unclear how much interest San Antonio has in any of these players, but the Wiseman angle is clearly the most intriguing. The Spurs’ preference at this juncture is to continue to build through the draft and around the pieces they already have in place, but the idea of replacing Poeltl with a talented center prospect is one that would make sense. And yet, despite his high standing as the 2020 No. 2 overall pick, Wiseman has done next to nothing at the NBA level, mostly due to various injuries suffered over the course of his young career. For San Antonio, it would be a high-risk, high-reward situation, if it even became available to them.
And there’s also the financial part of this equation that must be considered. Golden State is in luxury-tax hell, with an upcoming bill projected to be in the $170-range. That’s ON TOP of their current total cap of nearly $190 million, for those unfamiliar. Woof. While acquiring Poeltl’s expiring contract might be nice for the checkbook this summer, he would almost undoubtedly be a rental for the Warriors, who are not about to pay him $20 million in free agency considering their cap situation and the potential commitment they’re going to have to make to Draymond Green.
That means they’d be mortgaging part of their future for a three- or four-month run from a center who would likely come off the bench. Much as he’d be for the Celtics, Poeltl would be wonderful for Golden State’s defense and could thrive in that wide-open, movement-based system. But that Warriors’ offense is not an easy one to learn on the fly. There are so many moving parts, and with Kevon Looney already in place and intimately familiar with its intricacies, there wouldn’t be a ton of room to spare.
Once more, there’s real potential for a great basketball fit in Golden State, but is it worth it for the defending champs to pay a premium for a player who may not be in town long enough to justify buying a home in the Bay Area? Only if the Warriors break away from the path they’ve been determined to maintain and dive headfirst into a run at a repeat.
Los Angeles Lakers
It’s essentially been trade season for the Lakers since the opening salvo. The frustrations with team performance, Russell Westbrook’s fit within the system, the lack of shooting, the abundance of old guys, Anthony Davis’ injury situation — it’s all created an echo chamber surrounding the team and its needs, whether perceived or absolutely real.
Recently general manager Rob Pelinka made it clear the Lakers are still trying to compete for a title despite currently occupying the 13th seed in the Western Conference, but insinuated their 2027 and 2029 draft picks — their earliest available tradable picks — would only be included in a deal that would vault them into contention. And frankly, it doesn’t seem like Poeltl would be the piece that would help them accomplish that.
While his acquisition would likely be welcomed by Anthony Davis, who’s always preferred to play the four, Los Angeles would not be addressing its greatest need by placing Poeltl alongside its second star. Spacing has been a serious issue with this team all year, and despite his passing ability and intelligence, Jakob just ain’t gonna help in that capacity. Sure, they could decide to put him in a reserve role as Davis’ backup — it would absolutely be a roster upgrade — but using those two picks to trade for a non-shooting bench big does not seem to be the splashy move that immediately propels them to the top.
From the Spurs’ perspective, while two first-round picks might meet their asking price in a vacuum, those assets would not convey for a LONG time, which makes the decision tricky. San Antonio is not looking to draw out this rebuild for any longer than it has to, and would like a quick return on investment from any potential Poeltl deal, but there’s a world in which those picks are extremely valuable by the time 2027 rolls around. Hell, there’s a world in which those picks are extremely valuable by the time 2025 rolls around — i.e. whenever LeBron James decides to retire — which would make them very attractive trade assets within the next couple of years should the Spurs choose to not play the long game. But there’s also the possibility Los Angeles, the most popular free-agent destination in the NBA, rebounds quickly after whatever it is that might happen next. Again, tricky decision.
And yet, it could all be a moot point. If the Lakers are able to make more early moves on the margins similar to the one that recently brought Rui Hachimura to town, then perhaps there’s a Poeltl conversation to be had. But on its own, a deal for Jakob may not yield the return Los Angeles is trying to net with its remaining first-round picks. On top of it all, the Lakers don’t have many pieces left to offer for salary-matching purposes or trade filler, and they don’t seem particularly interested in using their draft picks to unload Westbrook’s expiring contract. It’s an interesting situation to monitor, but at this juncture it all just seems unlikely.
Portland Trail Blazers
From a stylistic standpoint, the fit doesn’t get much better than Portland as a landing spot for Poeltl. With a couple of deadly guards zipping around him on the perimeter in Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons, a high-octane forward in Jerami Grant sharing the frontcourt with him, and the up-and-coming Shaedon Sharpe flying through the atmosphere above him, the Poeltl Hub would be fully activated in the Pacific Northwest.
But from a logistical standpoint, this one is difficult to parse. Lillard and Simons are already on the books for nearly $70 million next season, and like Poeltl, Grant’s contract expires this summer. Asking the Blazers to come up with what could easily amount to another $60 million between the two is a lot to ask, and if they’re choosing between them it’s going to be Grant in a heartbeat.
On top of it all, Jusuf Nurkic — who would almost assuredly have to be part of any deal — is in the first season of a 4-year, $70-million contract, a commitment to which the Spurs likely have no interest. The idea of Poeltl in Portland is wonderful, but the reality of it happening is far-fetched. There just doesn’t seem to be a viable path.
Dallas Mavericks
Since early this season, I’ve found it strange there’s hardly been any mention of a Poeltl-to-Dallas situation. Not even hardly, basically zero. But on paper, it just makes too much sense — at least to this guy.
One season after fielding a top-seven defense in the league, the Mavericks have been dreadful on that side of the ball. Their defensive rating of 115.1 points allowed per 100 possessions has them stuck as the sixth-worst defense in the NBA, ahead of only teams catapulting themselves toward the bottom of the standings and the top of the draft.
So it has to be asked: Why would a team that’s not currently in the conversation for real contention, that has some urgency to add more pieces around Luka Doncic, and has been a trainwreck defensively not look for an upgrade to Dwight Powell?
Dallas has one outgoing first-round pick owed to New York that will almost certainly convey this summer, but outside of that it’s got the assets to make a move if it pleases. And on paper, the Poeltl fit seems obvious. He’d be a high-level pick-and-roll partner for Doncic, a great connector when defenses swarm Luka and the passing sequences are triggered, and he wouldn’t get in the way of Christian Wood, who prefers to spend a lot of time on the perimeter. Defensively he’d bring an instant jumpstart as an anchor big who would allow the Mavs to run their frenetic switching scheme on the perimeter with confidence, knowing they’d have an elite shot-blocker waiting on the back end.
Poeltl’s expiring contract is obviously a concern (I may as well copy/paste that at this point), and the Mavs are also going to be faced with re-signing Wood, but they’ve got some small pathways to more financial flexibility should they feel the need to pursue it. It’s not as if Mark Cuban is afraid of spending money, but finding a way to trade out of Tim Hardaway Jr.’s contract would be helpful.
There’s also a larger theme at play: Aside from the few obvious outliers, Dallas does not have the reputation of a team that drafts well. It’s long sought trades and free-agent deals as ways to improve its roster, but it does not appear the latter is going to be an option anytime soon, save for some additions to the fringes.
Things would likely get a little pricey moving forward, but winning in the NBA has become an expensive proposition, and adding an in-his-prime Poeltl to this team would be an obvious improvement. Worry about the money stuff later, and hope that the internal improvements of young players will help fill in the gaps when it might be time to shed some salary along the perimeter in the coming years.
Even if a number of these scenarios actually comes to fruition, the Spurs are going to have to make a decision. Two first-round picks might be the baseline, but it’s not necessarily an automatic trigger point. If San Antonio fields an offer from a team it feels will be nice and stable by the time that team’s pick is scheduled to convey, it may not be as interested in a selection that will almost certainly fall near the back end of the draft. If the assets offered won’t be seen or heard from for four-plus years, the time gap might be too wide for its liking.
When last summer ended with Poeltl still on the team, particularly following the Murray trade, it was clear the Spurs weren’t set on moving on from him. If anything, it would likely be more difficult to do so now than it would have been at that point, considering how far down the road they’ve come since.
There are options out there, but ultimately, it may be too complicated and risky for most parties involved to pull the trigger.
Zach Collins has stepped up as of late in case Poeltl is traded for less than asking price.