CK Mailbag: Learning from the Kawhi exit, Devin Vassell's season, and where I changed my mind...
Plus, the turnover problem, a little draft talk, and maybe the most noticeable change on the defensive end.
Thank you all for the great submissions! This was an enjoyable trip around a bunch of different topics — y’all never fail to disappoint. But there are almost 2,500 words below these, so, without further ado…
Alright, I hope mine can be answered, but I’d love to hear a compare/contrast of how the Kawhi situation has informed the Spurs handling of Victor. Obviously Kawhi is a very weird cat and I would assume most of that situation was on Leonard and his crew, but I think it was eye-opening in that the Spurs saw not everyone was Tim and David, etc… So my question is, what did the Spurs learn from having a superstar in Kawhi that is informing how they treat Victor? — Taylor Young
I’d love to slip some truth serum into a Spurs exec’s drink and ask them this question; and if you’re a Spurs exec reading this, please disregard any notion I would slip something into your drink.
Here’s what we know for sure — and it’s important: Kawhi and Wembanyama couldn’t be more different. Leonard was/is extremely introverted, quiet, and often just in his own world, and there were plenty of questions about what kind of locker room leader he’d ever be well before all the drama took place. He was always mysterious, even to the team most of the time. Nobody questioned the work ethic or the passion for the game, and he and Gregg Popovich had a strong relationship. But his shell was difficult to crack.
Victor, on the other hand, is wide open and communicative. There is no uncertainty about what he’s thinking. At the very core of things, these differences in personalities offer the front office a sense of calmness, even understanding how much work it has to do. If your superstar lets you inside his head, it makes your work easier. I feel like this is true with any close relationship in life.
As for what the Spurs have learned from the Kawhi ordeal?
The idea they were oblivious to what NBA life is like with a non-Duncan superstar is overblown. San Antonio knew well how unique the ‘Big 3’ era was, and that it’s simply not normal to have players sacrifice the way Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker did. But remember, they had their free-agency scares with those guys, too. If you don’t think they bent the knee to their most important players over the years, think again. Yes, Pop and R.C. Buford set a standard for the organization and stuck to it, and they earned the level of respect necessary to do so, but first and foremost it was Timmy who allowed them to function the way they did.
Still, franchises must learn from every new experience. And while the Kawhi situation was a VERY weird one, marked by ulterior motives from characters behind the scenes (Leonard’s camp), San Antonio understands this is all about Victor — just as it was all about Duncan before him — and they’ll go the extra mile they may not have seen before the Kawhi saga even materialized.
How do you evaluate Dev’s play and development the past three months (2024)? Given what he’s shown, what do you think is his role long-term? His improved consistency reminds me a bit of the arc of Dejounte’s 2022 season — not in terms of play style, but in terms of learning to bring it every night. — Chris
I’m glad you brought up that last point, because frankly that’s what sticks out to me the most.
We’ve tracked his progression as a player, from his improvements as a facilitator, to the blossoming two-man game with Wemby, to his shot-making, to the spike in his numbers at the rim. We’ve also pointed out his low free-throw rate, and how that’s one of the next big steps he has to take. I’ll be doing a deeper dive into Dev after the season as well, but I want to get to the final part of your submission.
I will fully admit, I had questions about the kind of leader Vassell was going to be, about the investment levels, about the personality, about the “dawg” in him (sorry for the corniness).
I was BIG wrong.
The biggest change in Devin this season, at least in my eyes, has been the light going on in his head that he, too, can be The Guy. And he’s embraced that along with everything that comes with it, where I’m not sure he had the confidence to do so before. He doesn’t disappear in games the way he used to, his sort of goofy, fun-loving demeanor has shifted more toward the serious side, and he’s become a vocal and actionable leader of the group along with the ubiquitous Keldon Johnson.
Vassell still has work to do in all facets — the dude is just 23 years old — but the ongoing process of transformation has been obvious. He really does want to be great, and it feels like he finally believes he can be.
I’m not trying to complain that the Spurs have Victor Wembanyama, but it can be immensely frustrating watching this team play because of the never-ending turnovers when he’s on the floor. If he’s not dribbling into a crowd then someone is trying to force a pass into him. Over and over. It doesn’t have to be this way. I’m wondering, do think next year Pop might move away from the read-and-react, drive-and-kick offense they play now to something more simple: throw it to Wemby in the post, then play out of double teams. Leading the league in assists is cool but … the turnovers. My god, the turnovers. — Steve Miranda
You’re preaching to the choir, Steve! I’ve written plenty about the turnovers, and I hate to tell you this, but it’s probably just a pill you’re gonna have to swallow for now.
Very rarely, throughout the history of the sport, has a rookie come in and both taken on this kind of usage offensively and commanded this much attention from opposing defenses. Turnovers were inevitable from the start for the youngest team in the league with this kind of personnel hierarchy. But this is the time to expose the entire roster to these kinds of working conditions.
While the idea of the read-and-react system might sound complicated, it’s really just basketball at its basic level. And Pop is trying to teach them how to play. You’ve gotta keep rolling with it, and trust they’re going to learn from each mistake they make. It’s the only way.
But I do think it’s prudent to point out they have been implementing more packages based on executing set plays as the season has rolled along, and largely these guys have been performing well. And I’d like to point out the Denver game, specifically, where despite the ugly shooting night, Victor seemed to really slow things down. He was assertive and physical, but he was patient, intentional with most everything he did. He didn’t seem rushed, and the two measly turnovers were a direct result of that.
They’re going to figure things out, but this stuff takes time. And at least in my opinion, it’s critical they learn how to play together beyond dumping down to Wemby in the post every time down the floor. There’s just so much more to the game.
Who have you changed your mind about most this season? — Cory Zanoni
I’m not actually sure I had my mind made up on anyone coming into this season, given all the youth, inexperience and unproven-ness. But I guess I’d say my level of certainty in Zach Collins has wavered a bit.
There were zero issues on my end when he received his contract extension. In fact, I thought he absolutely deserved it. Collins finished the season shooting 38.1 percent on 160 catch-and-shoot jumpers (142 of which were 3-pointers), his post game was coming along to the point it was a go-to action when the Spurs needed a basket (1.058 points per possession, 71st percentile in the league), and his defense at the rim was serviceable (allowed 56.8 percent shooting at the basket), and he’d become a dependable playmaking hub from the elbows and an excellent passer.
But he’s re-entered “something to prove” territory after the season he’s had. While the 3-pointer has bounced back post-All-Star break, he’s still not letting it fly the way he did before, and his catch-and-shoot numbers have dipped all the way to 31.1 percent on the season.
Here’s the thing, though: While it may not seem like it to most, the perimeter shot is really the only thing that’s slipped with Collins from a numbers perspective.
His post-up efficiency is largely the same, his assist percentage has risen while his turnover percentage has dropped, and he’s allowing opponents to shoot less than 50 percent against him on 149 shots at the rim. There’s been a slight dip in his defense on pick-and-roll ball-handlers (.907 ppp allowed last season to .959 ppp this year), but one could make the argument that may be because he’s spent less time on the floor with guys like Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Julian Champagnie and Tre Jones — more effective defensive buffers than Malaki Branham, Keldon Johnson and Cedi Osman.
Still, regardless of numbers, something’s just felt off with Collins this year. He says he’s good, but it’s often been easy to notice his frustration on the court. I swear I’m not trying to play armchair psychologist here — I know you subscribe to this newsletter, Zach, so please listen to the people around you, not me lol — but it feels like he needs a reset of sorts. I’m not talking like ‘Aaron Rodgers takes ayahuasca and disappears into the darkness’ level stuff, just a little three-day offseason meditation retreat in middle-of-nowhere New Mexico or something.
Jokes aside, it’s really all about the 3-point shot when we talk about fit here. Collins works his ass off, clearly cares about his job and team, has become a good post player and valuable facilitator as a big, and plays solid defense when he doesn’t get caught up in foul trouble or his own frustration. But what sets him apart at the ‘five’ spot is his ability to space the floor, whether he’s playing alongside Wemby or not.
More talent is coming to San Antonio and the players in house are going to continue to develop, which means his job is only going to get easier from here (though there may also be more competition). So long as he maintains or increases his production in all the other facets of his game, it may just be that 3-point shot that determines the future of a guy who isn’t elite or game-breaking in any one area.
Like the lucky bunch they are, Spurs get the No. 1 pick: Who do you select? — Jacob Sutton
I shall not lie to you — I do not know. I tried for a while to come up with an answer when I read this question, and I just could not. This is not a copout, though. I’m going to take you through my process. Eventually.
(Admittedly, I haven’t done the deep dive into these prospects yet. That comes after the season. But I have watched a good bit of tape on most of the projected lottery possibilities. Just know I don’t consider myself fully informed at this point.)
Typically speaking, especially for teams in top-overall-pick conversations, drafting the best player available is far and away the best strategy. You’re almost always in that situation because you lack the necessary talent to compete, so it’s critical to start there and work your way out toward needs later. But this draft is unique — or bad, depending on how you want to look at it — in that the talent level toward the top is relatively flat, and there’s a real variety of role-player types with differing skill sets from which to choose.
What makes it even more interesting from the Spurs’ perspective is they already have THE GUY in tow, and every plan they make moving forward will revolve around him. So the questions I look forward to asking Brian Wright prior to the draft is: Just how much do you shift the slider from drafting best player available to drafting for fit? Are you more likely to “reach” this summer than you would be during a draft with more established general rankings? Or are you more likely to take a veteran collegian who’s ready to roll right now — like, say, Dalton Knecht — than you otherwise would be? A lot of ways this could go!
In terms of my answer to the original question about the top overall pick, we will get there in due time, friends. I promise. Just not now, because I genuinely don’t have an answer yet. This pre-draft process is going to be an adventure.
Do the Spurs measure overhelping as a statistic? I’ve been very curious as it seems like they have gotten far better about not helping as much and helping from more effective spots on the floor. — Sam
I am glad you sent this question in at the last second, Sam. Because I was going to find a way to write about this at some point.
While I’m not sure if they have any specific form of measuring this outside of watching player-tracking models, addressing overhelping has absolutely been a point of emphasis over the last couple of seasons. And you’re right, they’ve been much better about it in recent weeks and months.
In their own words, they’ve learned to “trust Vic.”
“We trusted him from the beginning, but we just needed reps with him, obviously. In the beginning of the season, we were trying different types of defenses, but right now, since the All-Star Break — or even before the All-Star break — Vic is always staying behind (dropping), and we're trying to fight through the screen,” Cedi Osman said last week. “Especially right now, we're hands down trusting him, and we're pressuring the ball every time, and he's there. He trusts us that we're going to protect him after he goes for the block, we're going to take the big man (rolling). He's been phenomenal lately, so we're going to keep trusting him.”
So it isn’t just wings staying at home on their men more consistently and crashing down on dribble-penetration less often, but perimeter defenders are also being more physical and aggressive at the point of attack because they know who’s waiting on the back line. It took a while for them to get there, but it’s coming together nicely.
Not for nothing, guess who had the 12th-best defensive rating in the league during the entire month of March…
You probably guessed right.
Thank you for reading Corporate Knowledge! If you’d like to receive new posts and support the work here, you can sign up below to become a free or paid subscriber, or you can share with others you think might enjoy this newsletter!
And a special thank you to all paid subscribers. Y’all have made the work we’re doing here possible, because your support has led directly to improved coverage and access this team hasn’t granted in the past to independent writers and journalists.
Great stuff, I think I’ve finally forgiven Kawhi and Uncle Dennis. Thanks for answering that one.