The NBA's 'duo' era is here, and the Spurs are hoping they've found their pairing
As the age of the 'Superteam' is squeezed, organizations are betting on complementary, star-caliber tandems to lead deeper rosters. And San Antonio is hoping it may have one of its own in the making.
The “Superteam” era in the NBA — what might be universally defined as the three-star approach — seems to be dying a slow death, even as the Phoenix Suns put that theory to the test.
We saw the 2013-14 Miami team burnt to a crisp by your San Antonio Spurs, as the Heat’s limited cap flexibility afforded them very few ways to pivot off a rapidly aging supporting cast behind LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh; the 2018-19 Golden State Warriors had to say goodbye to Kevin Durant after a couple of incredibly successful seasons because he wanted to be the guy somewhere else, or he just wanted to get the hell away from Draymond Green; and the Brooklyn Nets were forced to trade both James Harden and Kyrie Irving at the 2022 and 2023 trade deadlines, respectively, because, well, they’re the league’s preeminent merchants of transactional movement, ready to split any time the wind blows in an uncomfortable direction.
Both complicated roster-building logistics and internal drama have played major roles in bringing down these talented behemoths, and as the new CBA becomes even more restrictive with harsher penalties for the big spenders, assembling and maintaining ludicrously expensive payrolls is going to become all the more difficult. When top-heavy rosters are constructed via free agency or trade, and if those transactions come at the expense of depth, the gambling stakes become significantly higher from both a personnel and financial perspective
Thus, the downshift. We’ve officially entered the modern age of the duo.
It’s important to clarify: It’s not as though the concept of assembling as much talent as possible is something new. From the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers of multiple yesteryears, to the dynastic Chicago Bulls, to even the Tim Duncan-era Spurs, putting together the best possible collection of basketball players has been a tried-and-true formula for ages.
Because duh.
But the NBA is as deeply talented and skilled as it’s ever been, and a quick look around at last year’s playoff or Play-In teams illustrates the change in emphasis and priority.
The Nuggets, Celtics, Lakers, Kings, Cavs, Bucks, Knicks, Sixers, Hawks, Heat, Bulls, Grizzlies, Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Mavericks each have a pairing of what the consensus would consider stars. The levels of compatibility and talent may vary, but the construct is the same: Find a way to bring two complementary, star-caliber players into the building, do your best to use the remaining 30 to 50 percent of your cap space to assemble a competent roster, and see where the added depth takes you without having to incorporate a pricy third wheel.
On Monday, San Antonio made an investment that signaled a commitment to a duo of its own with the 5-year, $146-million ($135 million guaranteed) extension of Devin Vassell’s rookie-scale contract — the most lucrative deal in the franchise’s history. The idea? To pair Victor Wembanyama with the type of shot-creating, playmaking, pick-and-roll guard Nikola Jokic has in Jamal Murray, or Kevin Durant has in Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, or Giannis Antetokounmpo now has in Damian Lillard, or whatever the closest facsimile might be considering we don’t know exactly how Wemby will be used. And while it’s been a slow burn year over year, Vassell’s statistical profile has morphed from that of a 3-and-D role player to what you’d expect from a shot creator with that kind of price tag.
The vast majority of Vassell’s offense derived from spot-up opportunities in years one and two (45.3 percent and 42.7 percent of possessions, respectively), while pick-and-rolls accounted for less than a quarter of his usage. But those numbers flipped dramatically in the 38 games he played last season.
Vassell used a pick-and-roll to create scoring chances for himself or his teammates on more than half of his offensive possessions, and his spot-up frequency dropped all the way to 23.7 percent even as he shot a career high 38.7 percent from the 3-point line. Even more importantly, the uptick in on-ball usage came with a significant spike in efficiency. Vassell’s effective field-goal percentage out of the pick-and-roll leapt from 39.1 percent on 96 attempts during the 2021-22 season, to 54.7 percent on 158 attempts in 33 fewer games last year. To boot, he shot 52 percent on two-point attempts beyond 17 feet — an important area of the floor for creators dribbling off high screens.
But once Vassell penetrates beyond the open spaces of the perimeter and mid-range, areas where loves to catch and shoot or utilize his step-back, side-step, or smooth, high-release turnaround, things start to get a little hairy. There are a few reasons why he hasn’t made THE leap yet, but chief among them is his struggle to maintain both aggressiveness and efficiency once the walls start to close in around the basket.
Shots around the rim accounted for less than 20 percent of Vassell’s attempts last season, and while that frequency has climbed since his rookie year, it’s been more of a drip than a steady stream of improvement. And whenever he’s actually found a way to slither inside, his 55.6-percent mark at the basket — 23rd percentile in the league, per Synergy — left a lot to be desired, as did his 7.5-percent fouls-drawn rate. Despite his length (6’10 wingspan), craftiness and touch, he’s never quite been able to get things right around the basket.
Things are are about to change in his favor, though. San Antonio has had struggles with spacing over the last few years, but the addition of Wembanyama, as well as the continued presence of floor-spacing big Zach Collins — who cracked the court wide open following the trade of Jakob Poeltl last season — should create mountains of open air for Vassell to operate.
In addition, the newly minted Spur has added even more muscle to his frame, which should allow him to better handle stronger defenders around the rim. San Antonio listed Vassell at 200 pounds on its training-camp roster sheet, but he might be a bit heftier than that. Regardless, the puzzle pieces are falling into place in a way that should afford him ample opportunity to post his best, most efficient season yet.
“All summer I worked on getting stronger, not just my legs but my whole body. I’m not trying to sit out games, so that was my main focus — to get stronger and get ready for this season so I’m not missing any time,” Vassell said. “I wanted to work on getting bigger, I wanted to work on finishing at the rack, and I feel like this offseason I put in a lot of work in the weight room.”
Scoring isn’t the only area that needs polishing, though. With the added attention comes the expectation to make the right play, and Vassell has shown a tendency to pull up into a contested look or use his shot-creation tricks in a phone booth rather than move the ball along, hit the roller, or find the open man along the perimeter when defenders clamp down around him. It’s not a selfishness thing, though; it’s just his inclination.
But even considering all this, Vassell’s assist percentage took a massive jump from 9.4 percent in 2021-22 to 17.2 percent last season, and teammates and coaches have gushed about the improvements in this area dating back to last year’s training camp. That increased production wasn’t just a change in usage type or volume either; he was legitimately dipping into a bag we hadn’t seen from him before, for a team that didn’t have many true scoring threats to help boost his numbers. The playmaking stuff is real, he just needs to avoid getting caught in jail to tap into the totality of it.
And based on the amount of money the Spurs have committed, they’re expecting that development. Because that payment plan isn’t totally based on past credit history.
But the glimpses have been convincing enough, and so has the player himself. So long as the knee isn’t a problem — San Antonio and Vassell have been adamant it isn’t — a full season of production like what he posted last year in limited time (with improvement factored in) is worth what the team is about to pay.
It’s a team-friendly deal, too, once you get past the sticker shock. The Spurs could open enough space next summer to make a run at a max player in the off chance that opportunity presented itself, even with Vassell’s deal set to lock. Or they could play their cards right and continue to pay homegrown talent that is sure to eventually get expensive given the other young players on the roster and the future draft picks they possess. Or they could be easy trade partners. Considering all the assets at their disposal and the total lack of restrictions, they have their options.
And Vassell’s contract structure will help in that capacity. San Antonio will never have as much cap flexibility as it does now, at least not for a long while, and Devin’s front-loaded, descending deal ensures the largest portion of the money he’s owed is paid up front. And as this deal nears its completion, it’s going to take up a miniscule amount of the salary cap, relatively speaking. So, even if he never quite reaches the caliber of a Murray, Booker, Beal or Lillard, or any other star guard not mentioned in this article, the Spurs’ bank will be far from broken.
Here’s the breakdown (per ESPN’s Bobby Marks):
2024-25: $29,347,826; 20.7-percent cap hit
2025-26: $27,000,000, 18.1-percent cap hit
2026-27: $27,000,000; 17.3-percent cap hit
2027-28: $24,652,174; 15-percent cap hit
2028-29: $27,000,000; 15.6-percent cap hit
But here’s where we can really nerd vibe out to the ‘capology’ soundtrack. That fourth year dip to the contract’s lowest point would coincide with Wembanyama’s own rookie-scale extension, giving the Spurs even more potential flexibility. Then, the fifth year jump back to $27 million — which wouldn’t have been allowed for a non-max player under the previous collective bargaining agreement — gives San Antonio and Vassell a chance to maximize their return moving forward.
Teams can offer a veteran extension worth 140 percent of the previous contract’s final year, which, depending on the length of the potential deal, could make an eight-figure difference in negotiations should Vassell’s tenure with the Spurs continue beyond that fifth season. Even a ~2.4-million jump from Year 4 to Year 5 can make that kind of impact. On the flip side, if he outplays the contract and becomes a player worth north of $200 million, San Antonio would surely be able to live with it even if it meant having to deal with unrestricted free agency.
Money in the NBA has reached a point of near disbelief, where even a contract of this size is normal for young players like Vassell whose best days are likely still ahead. At this stage, potential trumps prior production, and the team has fully bought into the growth it’s seen behind the scenes.
“He missed a good amount of time last year, and it really affected him in the sense that he went to work this summer very dedicated. His body is absolutely different than what you remember,” Gregg Popovich said. “He’s much stronger, much more aggressive and physical, more confident — he wants to prove himself both as a player and as a leader, and he’s been very vocal and demanding of his teammates during the summer. He’s already taken some big steps.”
What’s most important in this entire discussion, of course, is the presence of Wembanyama. Guard play is critical, but unless the anomalous Steph Curry’s name is invoked, the NBA still belongs to the giants. Whether it’s the physically imposing two-way wings, the impossibly skilled big men, or the unicorn hybrids of each category, it’s generally the largest embodiments of talent that lead the league’s list of title contenders these days.
Spurs players have all mentioned their newest superstar teammate has been doing everything from bringing the ball up the court to playing in the post during the first three days of camp, a level of versatility in a player standing 7’5 that’s going to put an immense amount of stress on any defense with his skill alone. Focus is going to bend toward him at all times, and that’s where Vassell’s skill set is going to come into play.
He may not be star No. 1 by the time San Antonio is ready to compete, but much like other big-name, second-option guards who have helped lead their teams during playoff runs before him, Vassell is going to be expected to take advantage when the attention is directed toward his team’s biggest threat — to solidify himself as part of one of the NBA’s next rising duos.
The Spurs are betting he will. In a big way.
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