The closer to the top, the more difficult the path
'It's a very tough one, but we're right there.'
Every so often over the course of the regular season, we’re reminded of the gulf that exists between those who have ‘done it in the postseason’ and those who haven’t. It isn’t always painfully obvious during a random game in December, but when a glimpse of that different height of competition arrives at your doorstep, it can punch you in the face the second you open the door if you’re not ready.
Take for instance the final game of the NBA Cup, where an Oklahoma City team that had been mostly dominant this season with either Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein in the lineup got blown out by Milwaukee — a side that started slowly but is now looking like a contender to at least make a deep playoff run. When the Thunder couldn’t make its 3s, it had no answer to the smothering defensive load-ups on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s probing attacks; on the other end, former Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo was bullying three-man fronts and showing even the top defense in the league there was still plenty of gas left in the tank.
We’re reminded there are levels to this. That the basketball played between October and April is mostly a mirage. That the sport becomes a different beast entirely when the games start to truly matter.
On the whole, it’s fair to say the Spurs have had a feel-good season thus far. Despite a rash of injuries, and in the face of a schedule that’s afforded them only two games against the lowly Eastern Conference, they’re still sitting firmly in the mix of teams battling for Play-In-Tournament positioning. They’ve won most of the games they should have won, and still a couple more they probably shouldn’t have. They’re largely beating the bad teams and at least hanging with the good. The signs of progress are there, so even when they put out a stinker, there is no sense the sky is falling — a sentiment that felt all too commonplace the last few seasons.
But again, there are reminders of just how much ground there is left to cover.
The most recent came Sunday night against Minnesota where the Spurs, fresh off an exhausting one-game trip to one of the NBA’s most remote outposts in Portland, were welcomed home by a ‘Wolves team ready to avenge an earlier loss in San Antonio. Minnesota learned quickly the officials were going to swallow their whistles more often than not, and it ran with that knowledge while the Spurs failed to push back in a 106-92 loss.
“They're a heck of a defensive team and we didn't help ourselves in some situations — I think probably with strong passes, strong catches, creating leads,” Mitch Johnson said. “That's a team that, if you allow them to out-physical you, they have very, very good individual defenders and they're very connected as a team.
A lack of physicality has been near the top of the list of problems in San Antonio the last few years, along with turnovers, poor shooting and rebounding. The Spurs have been much better in all these areas this season, but have made a bad habit out of starting slowly and often failing to meet the required level of intensity the moment the ball is tipped.
San Antonio, whose overall net rating this season is a much-improved -2.4 (it was -6.4 last year), is being outscored by 9.9 points per 100 first-half possessions through 26 games. And when you zoom in on the first quarter by itself, that number plummets even further to an almost shockingly bad -15.0 net rating.
You can chalk this up to any number of things: indecision offensively, lack of physicality and aggression, turnovers, cold shooting — it often feels like a different thing every night. Julian Champagnie even jokingly asked recently if us media members had any ideas for a cure. I proposed pre-game caffeine injections, but I don’t think the medical staff would be on board.
If you ask the vets, however, you get a different answer. They’ve been through this stuff before. They understand how critical winning in the margins is against more talented teams like Minnesota, and they’re more than willing to point it out to their younger cohorts.
“I think everyone has the right intention. Guys are trying to make the right plays and things like that. But I think just valuing the possession, just getting organized … especially against a good defensive team when you're playing in the half court, you have to fight for those details,” Harrison Barnes said. “Catch on the spot, screening at the right angle, just hand-to-hand combat, getting open, things like that. I thought we lost a lot of those small details (Sunday).”
This is what the growth process looks like. This is still a developing team finding its identity, all while learning how to adjust to the changing schemes of opponents who are taking them more seriously now than they have in years, and all while shuffling through rotational changes due to multiple injuries. It’s at least worth noting: The Spurs have not played a single game this season at full strength, and while there have been experience upgrades in the trade for Barnes and the signing of Chris Paul, this is a team full of players who are nowhere close to fully developed, and who still face a talent deficit more often than not. So any lineup absence has a real impact when the margin for error is already as slim as it is. The fact they’ve navigated the troubled waters of the early season as well as they have is impressive, but they can’t keep digging these holes.
The danger here, even as healthy bodies start to return, is the slow starts eventually lead to the expected outcomes more often than they have. Cleaning the Glass currently has San Antonio’s expected win total at 10.7 (so, between 10 and 11 wins based on efficiency variables), an indication its current record may be a bit skewed toward the positive, and a warning it could experience a drop-off as the season progresses should certain trends continue.
There is a number of different topics we’ll cover in the coming weeks and months — ideal starting lineup and rotations, the Jeremy Sochan fit alongside Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle’s role in all this — but for now, consider everything written above as a little blinking caution light.
San Antonio is in good position to remain competitive for the rest of the season, but as its schedule finally begins to feature more teams from the weaker Eastern Conference, it must be able to lean on the good habits formed against tougher competition and further address the bad. Because not for nothing, even as the strength of opponent begins to lessen, the Spurs will be on the road — where they currently have a losing record — for 31 of their remaining 54 games following Saturday’s tilt in San Antonio against Portland. And of those 23 remaining home games, one has been sent overseas to Paris, and two will take place in Austin.
The worm has to turn in a number of critical areas, or else a lot of this feel-good fans have experienced thus far may begin to slowly spiral. But the Spurs know what’s at stake, and they understand the expectations and challenges that come with being ‘in the mix.’ The Timberwolves made sure San Antonio was aware of that on Sunday, if it wasn’t already.
“It's just one more reminder that the very top is not far away,” Wemby said following Sunday’s loss. “It's a very tough one, but it's right there.”
And there will be many more tough nights ahead. Just ask the Thunder, whose apparent uprising was thwarted on national television Tuesday by the dominance of a player who had already won at the highest level. Even the very best of the young teams is still clearly waiting in line, and with just one loss has seen more questions raised about its viability as a contender as it has all season. But this, too, is part of the often excruciatingly painful process of reaching the pinnacle of sport.
In truth, that final hurdle to the top Wemby referenced is still just a blip on the horizon, but all the others before it must be cleared first anyway. Now is the time to start building on lessons learned, because the most difficult tests are yet to come.
