The balancing act of identifying early season trends
San Antonio indicated during training camp it wants to play faster, and so far the Spurs have been true to their word.
Almost exactly one year ago, on Dec. 23, 2019, the Spurs dropped what would eventually become a season-high 36 assists during a 145-115 win in Memphis — their 29th game of the 2019-20 campaign. It took only two games for new-look San Antonio to reach that mark this time around.
For all the talk about a change in overall offensive philosophy for Gregg Popovich and his group, assist numbers have generally provided an accurate measurement of team success throughout the coach’s tenure regardless of personnel. And once again, ball movement was critical in the Spurs’ 119-114 win over the Toronto Raptors on Saturday.
With the win, San Antonio goes to 165-11 when notching at least 30 assists in a game during Pop’s career. Pretty staggering stuff.
But it isn’t some grand proclamation or statistical revelation to describe the import of the dime within a free-flowing offense. Generally speaking, assisted field-goal attempts are going to yield more consistently positive results than those that are unassisted. What’s interesting in this case, particularly as it pertains to the Spurs, is that a team so well-known for its ball-sharing prowess over the years hasn’t finished better than eighteenth in the NBA in terms of assist percentage since the 2016-17 season. A lot of that has to do with personnel changes over time, but it remains a noteworthy stat considering the significant portion of the team’s identity it’s represented for so long.
Through the first two games of the NBA season – a very small sample size, mind you – San Antonio has assisted on 67.4 percent of its baskets. As a point of reference, that number was 58.5 percent last year, good for ninth worst in the league. Furthermore, the drive-and-kick game to which Spurs fans became so accustomed during the days of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili has made an early return.
Second Spectrum tracking stats show us the team is second in the league in both drives and catch-and-shoot opportunities per game, while Synergy numbers indicate a spike in the usage of spot-up shooters within the flow of the offense. And one would expect those numbers to climb with the eventual return of Derrick White, who was easily the best facilitator on the team last year as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop, pass-out situations in which San Antonio posted 1.15 points per possession during the 2019-20 season. That’s 94th percentile in the league type of stuff.
These are trends to watch going forward as they’ve often been indicators of Spurs success over the years. It’s important to designate these numbers as observations of the way a team wants to play as opposed to themes at this point of the season, but evidence of the groundwork established in the Disney bubble over the summer is there. The offense is still centered around DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, but the ball isn’t sticking as much, as both assist percentage and pace numbers as a team have picked up from last year when the two are on the floor thus far.
With the pandemic hovering like an unpredictable cloud over what will inevitably be a strange season for the books, establishing early momentum and limiting letdowns as much as possible when the roster isn’t dealing with injury or (unfortunately, but realistically) illness is critical. The first SEGABABA (second game of a back-to-back) situation of the new campaign in New Orleans will provide a test that will be interesting to monitor, especially as early returns have indicated San Antonio’s willingness to play fast. The Pelicans have shown thus far they want to slow things down, and the defense has been solid when keeping teams in the half-court.
Something’s got to give.