El Conclusión: Grizzlies 106, Spurs 98
San Antonio actually came to play some defense, but the offense couldn't keep up for those 48 elusive minutes.
Introducing (or reintroducing) La El Conclusión: a post-game format in which a somewhat-educated basketball writer grades the performances of highly educated NBA players right after a game without having a chance to go back and watch any film. It’s perfectly irresponsible.
“El Conclusión” is a play off one of Manu Ginóbili’s nicknames, “El Contusión.” Yes, I know the correct article would be ‘La,’ but we just wanted to keep with the spirit of the name!
Also, we grade on curves for these players, as not everyone is equal. Just FYI.
Monitoring for signs of life is important, even when a basketball team has spent much of its season on a respirator. The overall state of things might be difficult to digest, but progress in any one area at least lets loved ones know there’s a pulse.
Yes, the Spurs lost for the 28th time in 33 games this season; and yes, it was their 12th consecutive loss to the Grizzlies, a streak that is now almost three full years old. But for about 40 minutes (maybe even a little more), San Antonio actually played defense — good, physical defense, with tight rotations and the kind of attitude necessary on that side of the ball against tough opponents.
But the overarching storyline in San Antonio’s 106-98 loss to Memphis was pretty much the same as it’s always been: There’s going to be a lapse at some point, and even when this team is going good it doesn’t have enough firepower to build a lead that can provide a substantial enough buffer to withstand those lulls on most nights.
On Tuesday, that lull came late in the third quarter. Missed shots, poor communication, bad decisions, and frankly, woefully thin frontcourt depth allowed the Grizzlies to finally break through offensively and build a lead the Spurs could not overcome. If it feels like you’re hanging by a thread watching this team every night, it’s because they are hanging by a thread every night.
But San Antonio didn’t play this game like it was waiting for the other shoe to drop at some point, which is not something that can be said about many other outings this season. Players didn’t seem demoralized when Memphis was ripping off its run in the third quarter, they made a charge late in the fourth quarter, effort certainly didn’t wane — all the stuff Gregg Popovich appreciates even when his team just keeps losing and losing and losing.
And he appreciates it because he knows this team just isn’t good enough right now; and given the injuries, is far from deep enough. So with that said, let’s grade ‘em!
Victor Wembanyama | 20 pts, 7 reb, 4 blk | 8-16 FG, 2-5 3P | -13 in 26 min.
The Wemby experience continues to be a mixed bag. He’s the kind of game-changing player he was billed to be during one shift in the rotation, then the next you’re reminded he’s a 19-year-old rookie defenses are targeting as a star offensive player.
It’s interesting watching teams adjust to both him and the Spurs throughout the course of a game, especially when he’s opening said game rolling and catching lobs nobody else in the league can reach. They know if they can run through Wemby screens (very much still a work in progress), be physical with San Antonio ball-handlers to push them off their paths, and keep the big defender in position with a wing on standby to sink and tag the roller, they’re probably going to be alright.
Once the pick-and-roll isn’t delivering for any number of reasons, and when he isn’t spotting up or popping, San Antonio loves to go to him in the mid-post or at the elbows — which, in my opinion, is eventually where he’s going to make his living — for face-ups and isolations. The issue is, even though he is very inefficient in that role and from those spots right now, there is a high probability that shot is going up, and a decent probability it’s going to be rushed.
The Spurs want this, though. They want him to find his balance, they want him to gain the experience necessary to understand how to slow things down, and they want him to learn the faces and tendencies of the players guarding him on a nightly basis. It’s his space to explore right now — a space that comes with ill-advised jumpers like the handful he had Tuesday.
But for an offense that’s struggling the way San Antonio’s is, the difference in shot selection between one of his lanky fadeaways to whatever would come next in the sequence should he move it along is negligible sometimes. Someone has to do something, so why not the 7’4 phenom? Maybe he gets hot and opens things up for everyone else.
Sidenote: Taking this runner from the 3-point line — for the uninitiated, it’s a thing he did in France before making it to the NBA — with 10 seconds left on the shot clock was a terrible decision. But please keep doing it every once in a while. Watching basketball should be fun, and that was fun. (Also, I didn’t even talk about his defense, because that’s just a formality at this point. He completely changes the game every night on that side of the floor, and will continue to do so for eternity.)
Grade: B (Started really strong and had some jaw-dropping plays as always, but I thought he flamed out a little in the second half. Some of those shots were flatly bad.)
Devin Vassell | 11 pts, 2 reb, 3 ast | 3-8 FG, 1-2 3P | -7 in 34 min.
Vassell was in hell against Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane, who were both super physical with him from the start. They did not respect his first step and felt comfortable crowding him well outside the 3-point line, they were blowing up pick-and-rolls by simply getting into his body and pushing him away from the screen once he started his dribble, and they were in his pocket any time he was able to get to his comfort zones. It was rough.
There had been a lot of good signs from Devin lately, as his shooting had come back online, he’d really increased his energy levels on the defensive end, and he’d rediscovered some of the playmaking stuff we thought we’d see more of alongside the Point Sochan experiment early in the year. But this was an advanced preview of what scorers like him should expect to see once the playoffs become a reality in the future.
Defenders like Smart are going to kick your ass if you let them, and there is just no way Vassell should be taking only eight shots in 34 minutes of court time in his role. The attack has to come quickly against those types of physical players, because holding the ball just allows them to do what they do best and get up in the bodies of ball-handlers.
Vassell is still learning to be The Guy, and he’s not exactly blessed with brick houses for screen-and-roll partners who can clear a lot of that space on their own, but last night was an education in what it’s like to face that type of physicality as a primary scoring option.
Grade: C (Like most everyone else, he played well on the defensive end. But again, he’s gotta take more than eight shots, and he has to meet the challenge of elite NBA defenders if he’s gonna be The Guy.)
Jeremy Sochan | 12 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast, 2 blk | 4-6 FG, 1-2 3P | +1 in 28 min.
Just wasn’t very involved on the offensive end against Memphis, which may have had something to do with the fact he’s playing small-ball four in this starting lineup, and the Grizzlies have a big, active back line. But while he did find his spots a few more times in the second half, it felt pretty clear his priority in this one was defense.
Sochan’s primary responsibility was Jaren Jackson, Jr., who’s about three inches taller and at least 20 pounds heavier than the Spurs’ forward, and loves to attack smaller defenders. Jeremy held him to zero points on 0-for-3 shooting with two blocks in 25 possessions as the primary defender, per NBA tracking data; and the only person to score on Sochan all night was Bane, who made two contested shots near the rim after Jeremy was forced to switch onto him.
You’d like to see him more involved as a cutter and on the offensive glass, but again, that’s difficult to do against Jackson Jr. and Bismack Biyombo. It’s been a strenuous season for Sochan, full of serious ebbs and flows. But these kinds of quiet but impactful performances deserve recognition.
One other gripe: I’d bet Sochan’s 3-point mark would be over 40 percent right now if it weren’t for the toes on his right foot. I’m not sure how many extremely long 2-pointers he’s hit this season, but it’s a high number relative to the volume of his attempts. Take a half step back, dude. Don’t want that to come back and haunt you in an important game down the road.
Grade: B (Really good defense, but both he and the team have to figure out a way to get him more involved earlier on the offensive end.)
Julian Champagnie | 12 pts, 4 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl | 3-6 3P | +12 in 22 min.
Quietly becoming one of the Spurs’ best perimeter defenders. Champagnie was as physical as anyone on the court Tuesday night, and when he wasn’t cross-matched onto a big man (Santi Aldama scored seven points against him), he nearly held all players he was guarding scoreless. Bane scored two points on just one shot in the 20 possessions Champagnie was his primary defender.
Foul trouble got to him last night, but as I told the chat in our game thread — we do this every time they play, by the way, so come join — I don’t really care. For a team that’s lacked physicality and struggled to stay consistent with its rotations on defense, that’s the stuff you want to see.
Additionally, Champagnie’s 3-point number has ballooned to 40.9 percent after a horrendous start to the season. If he continues to play like this, he’s not leaving the starting lineup. He’s the kind of 3-and-D type Pop has always loved surrounding his best players.
Grade: B+ (Foul trouble kept him out of ‘A’ territory. Thought he played really well.)
Keldon Johnson | 19 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast | 7-16 FG, 1-4 3P | -15 in 31 min.
As the development of both Wembanyama and Vassell took center stage to start the year, Johnson was relegated to a sort of break-glass-in-case-of-emergency role within the starting lineup. If the former pairing couldn’t get things going, he would step in and do the Keldon thing at some point throughout the night. So his move to the bench made logical sense, as it would allow the Spurs to essentially give him that role outright and balance usage instead of going with the wait-and-see approach.
But what I’m keeping an eye on is how quickly this thing veers into the “Keldon giveth, and Keldon taketh away” territory we saw last season with him as the de facto top option. Make no mistake, Johnson has kept this team in many games as a scorer this season when it badly needed someone to do something, ANYTHING. But for much of it he’s been a more focused defender — not great, but more focused — and there were some real lapses from him Tuesday night on both sides of the ball.
When analyzing this team over the summer and into camp, I was curious to see what a lower-usage, more role-oriented Keldon looked like; and while I agree with the decision to bring him off the bench given the circumstances, there’s at least some concern that comes with untethering a guy like him. This season, Johnson has improved his playmaking, brought his shooting back to a solid level, and played better defense. The Spurs will be in fine shape with that rotation if he’s able to rein things in and continue on a positive track, but with what is currently a depleted bench he’s inherently going to be asked to do a lot.
It’s going to be a grind until Zach Collins returns from his ankle sprain, but San Antonio needs Johnson to hold steady and stay balanced. Having said all of this, he still kept them alive against Memphis when nobody else could score. Again, it’s a tightrope walk with him.
Grade: B- (Kept the team alive during stretches but the mistakes almost erased the positives. This might be generous, but his scoring when nobody else could do anything was once again important.)
Tre Jones | 2 pts, 4 reb, 4 ast | 1-6 FG, 0-3 3P | +9 in 25 min.
He continues to steer the offense responsibly even if it’s unspectacular, and he’s been very active on the defensive end in his bench role. Jones has a tendency to be right in the middle of a lot of Spurs runs night in and night out, and just seems to be in the ideal position as a reserve, game-managing point guard. If the Spurs had a true starting lead guard, I think more people would recognize this spot is perfect for him.
But oh man, this dude cannot throw the ball in the ocean right now, and it’s been killing San Antonio’s spacing.
Jones has missed 11 consecutive 3-point attempts (most of them wide open) and is just 2-for-22 over his last 11 games from deep, bringing his conversion rate down to 22 percent for the season. I believe there will be some positive regression at some point, because mechanically his shot looks improved and he’s no longer front-rimming shots with line drives. But right now he’s in the middle of a serious funk, and until he starts knocking a respectable number of them down, teams are just going to completely ignore him on the perimeter. Nobody expects him to be a flamethrower out there, but if the defense isn’t closing down that space at least a little bit it’s going to keep him from consistently doing the things he does well off the dribble.
Grade C+ (Always a calming force, but I thought he seemed out of sorts at times — picked up the dribble quite a bit, missed a few major opportunities both as a passer and scorer, and is just struggling mightily as a shooter as defenses sag off. He can be much better.)
Dominick Barlow | 4 pts, 7 reb, 2 ast | 2-6 FG | -6 in 13 min.
Dom got the nod as backup center to Wemby over Sandro Mamukelashvili and played with great energy and intent. The strides he’s made both as a player and in the weight room are evident, and he no longer looks like a lost baby giraffe on the court. At least most of the time.
But he’s still very much a work in progress. For all the positive signs, that Grizzlies run late in the third quarter came in large part because the Spurs could not protect the rim or clean the glass, and as long as Barlow is manning the back line for that bench unit they’re going to have to pay extra attention to detail.
This isn’t the ideal situation, as he’s not really a five at this point of his career. But there’s a good chance Pop continues to give him those backup center minutes, and he will absolutely benefit from that playing time no matter the outcome of any game.
Grade: B- (Solid start, but got picked on later. Also missed a couple of good looks pretty badly. Remember, we’re grading on a curve with some of these dudes.)
Blake Wesley | 10 pts, 2 stl | 5-8 FG | -4 in 21 min.
Wesley needs to play more.
There are not many guards in the league who can pick up Ja Morant full court and stay in front of him the whole time, and still fewer who can contest his step-backs and turnarounds once he gets into the mid-range. Blake can do both, and having a player like that on the floor for a team that’s struggled tremendously to guard the perimeter makes life easier for literally everyone else.
Bigs can stay close to their men on drives and out of the pick-and-roll, wings don’t have to sink down and help as much, and everyone can kinda just stay at home — or close to home, at least. Offensively, he’s really cut down on the mistakes and doesn’t force as much around the basket as he did last season, he can play the one or the two, and you at least have to contest his 3-pointer.
And what’s more, you can tell he’s being extra careful on that side of the floor. He only takes his chances at getting downhill selectively, and whenever he gets in a little bit of trouble he moves the ball along. These are good things at this point considering he’s taking care of the ball, but Wesley’s biggest appeal out of Notre Dame (beyond the defense) was what he could become as a drive-and-kick player, and potentially as a finisher at the rim or pull-up threat.
But as is the case with Barlow, all this stuff comes with experience and confidence, and there’s a good chance he continues to get it. Wesley has spent most of his time in recent weeks with the big club rather than Austin, so Pop has been keeping him around. Now, with Malaki Branham potentially missing some time with a sprained ankle of his own, he may get more of a shot.
The bigger question in the wake of the Branham injury, though: Who’s going to start at point guard in the interim should he not be able to go?
Grade: B (Awesome defensively, OK offensively. Had a couple of nice finishes and a couple of nice setups, though.)
Doug McDermott | 3 pts | 1-4 3P | -9 in 16 min.
As I’ve mentioned before, McDermott’s value comes as a shooter and scorer, and he had a difficult time getting anything going Tuesday night. And when he did, he was just… off.
BUT!
Like the rest of the team, I thought he actually played some uncharacteristically good defense. He did a pretty good job sticking to his marks, and even had an impressive sequence in the third quarter where he stayed in front of a Morant drive and forced a pass-out. Unfortunately for the Spurs, the Grizz scored on the possession but it at least caused Matt Bonner (who was calling the game) to point it out in a pleasantly surprised tone.
Grade: D+ (Passing grade despite the lack of offense, because defense!)
Cedi Osman | 0 pts, 6 reb, 2 ast | 0-3 FG | -9 in 12 min.
Cedi’s offense, and his shooting specifically, has really taken a nosedive after a hot start. He’s just 2-for-13 from deep over his last eight games and hasn’t scored more than five points in a game since Dec. 19.
But his six rebounds in just 12 minutes of court time against Memphis was second on the team (tied with Keldon), which was something that small bench group needed. This wasn’t an offensively oriented game for anyone, so even a rebounding contribution was helpful to an extent.
I gotta dock him for the bad foul at the end of the third quarter though, fouling Morant on the inbound pass and giving him free throws in the final seconds. They were trying to hang on for dear life and stuff like that is just debilitating. (He also fumbled a pass from Keldon out of bounds on a baseline cut earlier in the game, but I don’t think it was a good pass.)
Grade: D+ (Rebounding effort is a good thing but that’s not really what he’s here to do.)
This went extra long since I haven’t posted an El Conclusión in quite a while, but they will be much shorter in the future. My plan is to do as many of these as I can after games I don’t cover in person (e.g. most road games), and we’ll see where it goes from there. Was also tinkering with the idea of doing a weekly EC, but considering this newsletter doesn’t always focus on specific games, I want to do what I can to give y’all my immediate thoughts — win or lose, rain or shine.
What have you made of Devin’s self-creation through the season so far?
The Grizz played him well, like you said, but I dunno if I’ve seen much of a first step or much shake that’ll really make defenders sweat.
The tough shotmaking is gorgeous but, yeah, wondering how he can get some easy ones.
(Better spacing and screeners would massively help, though. Dev has some structural things working against him here.)