Draft preview, Part 2: Slide on down to the basketball buffet

Missing out on a top-3 pick would sting, but fortunately there's a variety of high-level player types from which the Spurs could select along the next tier.

If Part 1 of this draft preview was an exercise in selecting the main character of the show, consider this the casting of a supporting actor whose emergence could lead to bigger and better opportunities down the road. The early developmental flaws are there, but the right combination of talent and versatility could provide avenues toward some version of stardom should all the pieces fall in the right place.

As mentioned in the previous newsletter, these tiers are designed to reflect what I believe the Spurs are thinking at this point of the draft process, not a general consensus ranking of prospects. It’s a mixture of the types of players San Antonio values, and still more who are perhaps one or two missing links away from becoming one of those sought-after archetypes.

The Spurs are max-level confidential with their draft intentions, and have been for a long time. I recall a moment in 2015 when the team drafted Nikola Milutinov 26th overall, and one of the first things then-General Manager R.C. Buford did during post-draft media availability was single out Dan McCarney (formerly of the San Antonio Express-News) for somehow predicting the selection in a mock draft. It was all in good fun, but the fact any info was out there on who they might select, even if it was just from a local newspaper guy, stuck in Buford’s brain to the point he wanted to bring it up to the leak in question. Again, it was all jokes, but it still provided a glimpse into their mindset. Like, how the HELL did this guy know?

All this is to say, none of what I’m writing here is based on direct intel from the team. In fact, any Spurs-related outside draft info you read or hear is likely coming from someone who heard it from a guy who heard it from a gal who heard it from a loosely connected league source. Maybe. Trying to predict their board is mostly educated guesswork, which is exactly what this exercise is. There’s always context that can be gleaned for those of us who have been around this team on a regular basis, but we’re certainly not getting definitive leads.

There’s also no way to lock anything in at this point, before all individual workouts and interviews have been conducted and the combine has even begun. So we’ll have a more polished big board by the time the draft rolls around. For now, this is an attempt at a fourth tier, which features three players with differing skill sets in no particular order.

Whether it’s a scorer, shooter, defender or playmaker — or some combination thereof — the Spurs would have fitting options available should they slide in the lottery.

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The Buffet Tier

Taylor Hendricks, UCF
Height: 6’9
Weight: 210 lbs
Wingspan: Can’t find a measurement on the internet, but it’s sizable
Age: 19

The rise of the relatively unknown mid-major hooper has become something of a tradition at this point of the draft cycle. It’s the players who, for various reasons, did not catch the blue-chip wave, were not ranked highly coming out of high school, and were hidden away in various corners of the country without much television exposure to highlight their development at the collegiate level.

But as the season grinds along toward springtime, and the scouts and draftniks have their opportunities to comb the landscape and dive deep into the tape, the gems are finally uncovered.

Last spring’s hot ticket was Jalen Williams out of Santa Clara, who went on to be drafted 12th overall by the Oklahoma City Thunder and put up a more impressive rookie season than almost everyone selected before him. This year, the name to watch is Taylor Hendricks.

And I do mean WATCH. Not a glance, not a side-eye, and no keeping him on the back-burner. Hendricks is a pot that’s boiling over, and depending on your draft strategy — and perhaps your level of reservation over Brandon Miller — he’s very much in play to become a top-six pick in late June. At least in my opinion. Of all the players whose tape I’ve turned on following the NBA regular season, this is the guy I’ve most often revisited. The more you watch, the more he pops.

When I wrote about Jeremy Sochan ahead of the draft last summer, I outlined a player who had some obvious, valuable skills a team could safely project to translate well to the next level. But it was the stuff we only saw in flashes during his one season at Baylor that hinted toward a higher ceiling than perhaps met the eye. Hendricks is similar, not in terms of skill set, but in the sense he seems to have more to his game than what’s clear on the surface.

From a skill standpoint, we know two things about Hendricks for sure:

First, he’s a hell of a defender.

The 19-year-old is one of the best shot-blockers in the draft not named Victor Wembanyama. His long arms, great instincts and impressive athleticism allow him to cover a ton of ground as a weakside defender along the baseline, which is where he spent a lot of his time at Central Florida; he’s capable of stuffing point-blank dunk attempts, using strong hands to just eat the ball whole at the rim; and he’s a menace in transition, where he’s able to singlehandedly thwart fast-breaks with chase-down blocks and outstanding end-to-end speed.

And I know Spurs fans will appreciate the fact Hendricks is an active practitioner of the Bill Russell-Tim Duncan block — i.e. keeping the ball in play after rejections by sending it back toward the shooter, to the ground, straight up in the air or in the direction of teammates. While he’s perfectly capable, he doesn’t often mess around with statement swats that fling the ball into the third row.

On top of all this, he’s got the mobility to defend smaller, quicker players on the perimeter when switching. Against guards, he moves his feet well to stay in front of them, and he’s got the reach to leave space between himself and the ball while remaining in position to defend the jump shot. And when the little guys try to blow by him, he’s fluid enough to recover and swallow up the drive with his size and reach.

Against bigger perimeter players, Hendricks does well bodying up against penetration despite the fact he’s not the beefiest guy in the world. He keeps his arms high and his chest square, and it is very difficult to dust him off the bounce or finish over him. Muscle has to be added, but considering he tacked on 15 pounds between high school and his freshman year, that potential to add weight once he gets into an NBA training program shouldn’t be much of a concern. He’s got the frame to tack on mass — hopefully without sacrificing the athleticism that makes him special — and once he does teams may be comfortable deploying him as a small-ball ‘five’.

Second, he’s a knockdown shooter and a big-time dunker.

It isn’t often we see players who can both live above the rim and kill defenses from the outside, but Hendricks is one of those rare breeds. Throw it up anywhere around the rim and he’ll go get it, whether he’s on the move or just stepping in from the dunker spot; kick it out to the 3-point line and he’s got a 40-percent chance of draining it. It’s a joy to watch.

But this is where the Sochan comparison kicks in when it comes to hidden-ish talents: While Hendricks might appear to fit the ‘3-and-D’ archetype with some rim-rolling sprinkled in, there are glimpses of a deeper skill set that just hasn’t quite developed yet.

While he’s primarily a spot-up threat at this point, Hendricks has shown signs he’ll be able to attack closeouts with a pull-up jumper or drive to the rim without turning the ball over. His nice, high release and vertical pop at 6’9 allow him to comfortably shoot over defenders, and he flashed some step-back and turnaround potential when he was able to stay balanced.

Hendricks also has a back-to-the-basket and face-up game. He won’t push defenders around at this juncture — he just isn’t strong enough yet — but he can spin off either shoulder, get to his spots around the restricted area, explode quickly off the ground and release a touchy hook shot or floater once he gets there. When facing the basket, defenders have to stay tight out of respect to his jumper. But he’s shown the ability to counter that with a quick rip-through to either hand into a power dribble or two before elevating at or near the basket.

That aforementioned balance is a real question mark at this point, though. As stated above, Hendricks’ game, particularly on the perimeter, is unrefined. He’s excellent as stationary shooter, and if he can step into the mid-range and get to his shot on a straight line, he looks like he’s going to be just fine. On the move, however, it’s a different story.

His footwork has not caught up with the rest of his pure shooting form. When he spots up he does a nice job of establishing his base early and firing quickly with great effectiveness. But Hendricks’ foundation is a little shaky and narrow when he shoots off movement, which leads to some body lean in different directions and sometimes a disjointed jumper.

On top of that, his ball-handling is a little loose at this point, which is most noticeable once he gets in trouble on the drive or is forced into becoming a playmaker. Hendricks is a fine and willing passer within the structure of the system, but he hasn’t yet shown an ability to create real advantages for others as a facilitator. Still, he’s got some fun moments on tape in which he’ll drop off the defender with a behind-the-back dribble into a step-back jumper, or hit a teammate cutting back door, or even handle the ball in the pick-and-roll. But it all needs to be tightened up if that kind of thing is to become a consistent threat.

Hendricks also struggles to finish around the rim for a guy with his size and athleticism, but I believe a lot of that comes back to his strength and balance on the move, not to mention his general rawness as a prospect. He had a number of shots blocked at the basket because he doesn’t dislodge rim-protectors from their spots, and he also has a tendency to put up line-drives against the backboard when he’s attacking. Hendricks covers a ton of ground off the dribble, but he hasn’t quite figured out the whole body control thing once his momentum has taken over.

These things are correctible, though, especially once a good development staff gets ahold of him. It’s difficult to believe someone with the kind of touch Hendricks has won’t be able to learn how to finish non-dunk attempts at a consistent, respectable rate, especially once he adds muscle and is able to take his time and create space rather than speed up to try and beat the shot-blockers to the rim. He’s a little bit like the big-man version of Blake Wesley, in that he hasn’t quite learned how to harness his quickness and slow things down around the rim once he gets there. It might sound a little counterintuitive, but patience is key in throwing off defenders’ timing around the restricted area.

When you’re selecting as high as the Spurs will be, you’re looking for the upside guys — the players you’ll look back on five years from now as the best selection from your 2023 draft slot. While Hendricks’ defense and shooting ability inherently gives him a high floor, his potential as a secondary scorer is what really sweetens the pot. He’s a smart, unselfish player who already adheres to San Antonio’s “.5” policy — once he catches the ball he’s either shooting, putting it on the floor or passing it along — but he’s only just scratched the surface of his all-around offensive game.

I’m not a huge fan of the comparison stuff, but if he thrives on the right development plan, I believe his ceiling looks something like a Jaren Jackson Jr. type with a much more fluid jump shot. He’s got a long way to go before he even sniffs a level like that, but in case you haven’t been able to tell, I’m extremely high on his potential to do so.

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Jarace Walker, Houston
Height: 6’8
Weight: 240 lbs
Wingspan 7’2
Age: 19

Unlike Hendricks, Jarace Walker is about as physically imposing as it gets at the forward position. He’s one of these basketball players who just doesn’t make sense from a biological standpoint — like how in the world does a teenager possess this combination of size and athleticism? That’s a conversation for another time, though, when we meet the creator and have a chance to ask about the decision-making behind gift-distribution.

As for the here and now, Walker is in great position to be someone’s high-level safe pick. I don’t mean that in the pejorative sense the “safe” word tends to take on at draft time, but rather, whoever selects him knows at the very least they’re going to get an excellent role player who can significantly impact the game in a whole variety of ways. And it all starts on defense.

Walker possesses a level of speed and quickness that belies his massive frame. He’s a fluid athlete who moves his feet and flips his hips extremely well for a guy his size, uses his strength to body up against dribble-penetration, and has the burst and wingspan to recover and block shots near the rim if he’s beaten. He’s nasty at the point of attack, a hard hedger in the pick-and-roll, and a menace in the passing lanes away from the ball.

His long wingspan and strong hands make him a major threat to both rip the ball from players and defend the rim, particularly as a shot-blocker coming from the weak side. Walker is the kind of end-to-end, sideline-to-sideline defender who almost singlehandedly changed the complexion of games at the college level on that side of the ball, a trait that is all but guaranteed to carry over to the next level. He’s quick enough to switch onto guards, instinctual enough to defend any of his fellow wings, and he’s already got the body to scale up as a small-ball ‘five’. All that’s left is learning the nuances of the NBA game which, as it does for everyone, will take a little time.

Offensively, he can probably best be described as a superglue guy, especially if the outside shot is real. Walker was not a 3-point shooter at IMG Academy, but he became a dependable floor-spacer during his one season in Houston. He knocked down a decent 35 percent of his 2.8 deep shots per game, but hit nearly 38 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts. That’s a nice mark for a shot type he figures to get a lot of at the NBA level. Walker’s release is a bit slow and methodical, and he has a bit of a backwards lean, but he should have plenty of time and space to get it off in the early going when he won’t have a target on his back as a marksman. If those percentages maintain and even improve, defenses will pay more attention. But as we saw with Keldon Johnson, players can effectively speed up their motion over time once they get comfortable.

Walker also projects to be a strong piece of connective tissue within the offensive system. He’s an excellent passer who can operate from the elbows, and in a pick-and-roll-heavy league he should be utilized often as a facilitator out of the short roll. In all likelihood, that could be the area in which he’s most dangerous. He’s very smart and makes quick decisions with the ball, which should translate to a boost in scoring opportunities for those around him.

Signs are there that Walker can remain a dependable spot-up shooter, he’s a natural and gifted connector within the flow of the offense, and his great instincts off the ball and along the baseline lead to easy buckets and dunks when he cuts to the basket. But in terms of his ability to elevate his game as a creator off the dribble? Eh.

It can be frustrating watching him on the attack. For such an imposing physical presence, he often opts for the finesse route rather than put his body into people. Whether it’s attempting to hit spin moves in traffic instead of keeping defenders pinned against his wide frame on a straight line to the rim, or opting to pull up for floaters once he’s in the paint, it’s difficult not to yell at your screen, “WHAT ARE YOU DOING,” when he puts his head down.

His relatively loose handle off the dribble leads to turnovers — nearly 20 percent turnover rate on drives, per Synergy data — and he often seems to attack closeouts without a great plan, getting caught in traffic once the defense collapses. If shooters or cutters pop open, he’s good at finding them off the bounce. But if they aren’t there, he tends to resort to some awkward runners or a stiff pull-up jumper that’s just not there yet from a mechanical standpoint. That is, if he doesn’t just cough it up outright once he gets in trouble.

Don’t let the last couple of paragraphs paint the wrong picture — I really enjoy Walker’s game and think he’s going to be an invaluable complementary piece for a team that’s already locked and loaded with a star scorer or two. I’m just skeptical of his ceiling as a shot creator. He remains in this tier because of his game-changing defense, his potential as a floor-spacer, his versatility as a passer and his upside as a roll-cut big. But from a Spurs standpoint, while all of these attributes are fantastic, you’re really hoping for some more scoring juice at the top of the draft. And I’m just not sure that’s what Walker is going to provide in bunches.

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Cam Whitmore, Villanova
Height: 6’6
Weight: 230 lbs
Wingspan: 6’9
Age: 18

Cam Whitmore is a bully. A flat-out semi-truck of a wing whose intentions are never understated. He wants to kick your ass on his way to the rim, and it you’re not ready for it, he absolutely will.

It isn’t often you see 18-year-olds with the kinds of physical scoring traits Whitmore possesses. He’s extremely aggressive at the point of attack, always in control of his body, deliberate on his drives and constantly looking to leverage his strength and flexibility by initiating contact and creating space. On top of that, he’s an explosive leaper who’s able to finish at the rim with ease, even from a two-footed standstill. Whitmore converted on nearly 65 percent of his shots at the basket during his freshman year despite defenses knowing full-well he was trying to get there.

He also shot 40 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s last season and sprinkled in evidence of a step-back game on the perimeter, capitalizing on all the space defenders would give him after even a single dribble toward the paint. And while he doesn’t have a great pull-up jumper — once he puts the ball on the floor he is hellbent on getting to the rim — he did prove he can walk into them at a nice clip should defenders decide to sag off in fear of penetration.

Defensively, Whitmore is a bit of a mixed bag. He’s solid at the point of attack, quick enough to defend guards and very active and disruptive with his hands when he’s engaged. He’s also got the sheer strength to match up with bigger players on the post despite giving up some size. Players can’t really move him, and he loves to swim over the top of post-ups to blow up entry passes. If Whitmore is locked in, he’s got real defensive potential.

But his aggressiveness can often get the best of him. He’s prone to sloppy closeouts and biting on pump fakes, taking big risks in the passing lanes and just finding himself out of position in general. Whitmore also had issues keeping tabs on his man away from the ball, navigating screens and executing switching schemes.

Most of this stuff seems fixable though, and teams will absolutely live with a young kid whose mistakes are mostly born out of aggressiveness instead of laziness or apathy. Attention to detail can be taught, and defensive errors are far from his biggest issue.

There is a giant red flag attached to Whitmore’s game on the offensive end. While all the attributes mentioned at the top of this breakdown make him an undeniable talent with a ton of potential, he is the very definition of a ball-stopper. This dude just doesn’t pass.

Whitmore’s 6.4 percent assist rate is about as low as you’ll ever see from a perimeter player, and that is something you wouldn’t expect would appeal to Gregg Popovich’s sensibilities. His tunnel vision is extreme, he dribbles and dribbles and dribbles to set up his attack rather than catching, reacting and going, and if the defense collapses on him, buddy, he’s gonna find a way to get to his shot. Again, he showed an elite ability to finish at the rim despite all of this, but that just isn’t going to cut it when it comes to projecting Whitmore as a primary option.

There are a couple of items to consider here, though. First, he’s one of the youngest players in this draft. There’s still a chance he can develop further feel for the entire offensive package with time and a system that requires both ball- and player-movement. Second, Whitmore was injured coming into his freshman year and missed more than a month of the season, so he sat out most of that critical preseason time when teams really develop their baseline on both sides of the ball. These are just a couple of examples of what teams will be telling themselves when trying to project what his role might be, and whether or not he’s going to be able to change the color of that flag to yellow or orange.

His awareness and willingness to pass must improve if he’s going to be a primary option, and the overdribbling has to be chopped in half, if not in quarters. Making quicker decisions will keep the man guarding him off-balance and prevent defenses from loading up and clogging his driving lanes.

In a way, Whitmore reminds me of supercharged version of Keldon Johnson. They’re both strong wings who can scale up to defend in the frontcourt despite giving up size to taller, longer players, they both have a shoot-or-drive spot-up mentality, and they both have a long way to go in terms of breaking away from the tunnel vision that can plague them.

But Johnson is a good example of someone who, despite still falling into the trap of putting his head down and not looking up, is at least cognizant of it from game to game and has grown as a playmaker. He’s still very much a work in progress in that area, and like Whitmore, he’s not an ideal pick-and-roll ball-handler. But his improvement provides at least some evidence that a young player can improve their feel as a facilitator after arriving in San Antonio.

Johnson is also an example of the type of role player Whitmore can become should the primary thing not work out: an off-ball threat who can hit spot-up 3s, attack hard against shifting defenses, and wreak havoc as a cutter or in transition.

There’s also the question of, could these two coexist if San Antonio drafted Whitmore? Well, that’s a story for another day, but a story nonetheless.

Whitmore is going to be a polarizing topic of conversation around the draft, but efficient scorers generally don’t have to sit in the green room for too terribly long once picks start flying off the board. If you’ve got the coaching, development staff and system in place, and you feel he has the character and talent level necessary to improve on his shortcomings, Whitmore’s strengths could eventually yield a wonderful return on investment.

Part 3 coming soon, where you’ll find a name that’s been conspicuously absent in the last couple of newsletters…

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