El Conclusión: The pre-Vassell days now in the rearview mirror
Player grades are back!
Welcome back to La El Conclusión, where a somewhat-educated basketball writer grades the performances of highly educated professional basketball players. It’s perfectly irresponsible.
“El Conclusión” was born in the ESPN TrueHoop Network days of 48 Minutes of Hell, and is a play on words borrowed from one of Manu Ginóbili’s nicknames, “El Contusión.” Now, it’s been given new life here at Corporate Knowledge.
Note: EC will show up in your inboxes every 10 games, so we have a solid sample size with which to work while still being able to devote the appropriate amount of time to all other weekly content.
Extra note: All players are graded on a curve here at CK. A Wemby ‘A’ is not the same as a Champagnie ‘A.’
It’s been a tumultuous first 10 games in San Antonio that, all things considered, the team has handled pretty well. A 4-6 record should probably be 5-5, or even 6-4 if you want to get really picky. But it could also be 3-7 if the ball bounces a few different ways in the second game of the season against Houston.
And yet, 4-6 feels about right. They’d been without arguably their most efficient scorer in Devin Vassell prior to Saturday’s 111-110 loss to Utah, they lost the ascending Jeremy Sochan to a broken thumb for what could be a couple of months, and Victor Wembanyama just hasn’t been himself throughout all of it despite registering a few wacky stat lines.
But most critically, they’ve been without Gregg Popovich for the last week-plus after he experienced a health event before last weekend’s game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. While no further details have been provided by the team, and the little bits of information I’ve received from sources are murky at best, it was reiterated to me by a Spurs staffer Saturday evening that Pop is “doing OK.” They said it’s been a “weird” week, but all boots on the ground are still following his marching orders from afar.
Any further relevant, concrete details will be relayed to the masses immediately once we’ve received word.
Now, on to grades.
Victor Wembanyama
18.2 pts, 10.3 reb, 2.4 ast, 4.0 blk, 1.4 stl, 3.7 TOs | 42.5 FG%, 28.2 3P%
-3.3 net rating in 31.0 mpg (10 games)
Let’s just take a quick glance at Wemby’s ridiculousness through the first 10 games: He’s already registered a 5x5 (at least five points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in a single game), and in doing so became just the third person in NBA history to record such a stat line multiple times during their career; he’s already blocked 10 shots in a game; and he hit a career-high six 3-pointers on Saturday.
And yet, one of the prevailing sentiments of the young season thus far has been, “What the hell’s wrong with this guy? What are the Spurs doing?”
The efficiency has been lacking, he’s taking a TON of 3s — 46.4 percent of his field-goal attempts have come from beyond the arc, up from 33.2 percent last season — and those who hoped or even lectured that a real point guard would come in and automatically open a portal that would lead Victor to his final form as a basketball demigod must be scratching their heads.
But what I wrote about the guys on the roster last season goes the same for even Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes: They’re going to need time to learn how to play with this human being, and he them. Wembanyama is as unique a player as we’ve ever seen, and because nobody wants to put him in any kind of box this early in his career, there will continue to be growing pains through the experimentation — even as there’s less of it now than there was during his rookie campaign. But you have to experiment. With the way defenses are loading up against him before he even touches the ball and swarming once he does, generating space for him to work is going to be critical if they want to remain competitive while he works through the issues.
Additionally, the return of Vassell should help loosen things up in a major way because of his ability to both score and pass out of that two-man game. They’ve all missed him tremendously.
I’ve been going through the exercise of trying to figure out how I’d personally try and get Wemby involved in more advantageous positions if I were diagramming plays, even doing some doodling of my own. In case you were unaware, I’m not being paid millions to coach, but it really is complicated. He’s not a candidate to be posted every time down the floor because he struggles with leverage in a lot of matchups; you can’t spam the cross screens and pin-downs because defenses will quickly adjust, and it’s not like he’s Dirk Nowitzki from the elbows and mid-post; you can’t repeatedly face him up and drive against bigs at his height, because all those tiny little 6’7 help guys are going to dig down and swipe at the ball; and surely you can’t just let him launch 3s all game, especially when he’s shooting only 28 percent. Surely.
Kidding aside, that last bit is one of the most important codes to crack. Once Wemby’s 3-point percentage begins to normalize teams will have no choice but to extend the defense which, in addition to Vassell’s presence, should open up more space. And the team wants him to keep shooting, so long as they’re “appropriate shots.” They know how critical that aspect of his game is and will be long term, so they’re giving him ample room to work through the rust.
What’s happening now isn’t all that dissimilar to the early parts of last season, and look how much he developed month by month. I’d expect more of the same this year.
Grade: B- (His ability to make what would otherwise be viewed as outlier statistical performances look ordinary works against him here, but we all know there are many more levels to hit. As I said at the top, it’s ridiculous.)
Jeremy Sochan
15.4 pts, 7.7 reb, 3.0 ast, 1 stl | 51.2 FG%, 25.0 3P%
-2.1 net rating in 29.3 mpg (7 games)
Describing Sochan’s injury as a bummer would be insufficient, frankly. It was more like being punched in the gut while receiving a wedgie and a noogie at the same time. I’m paraphrasing of course, as that is not a direct quote from the locker room. But it might as well be, because his loss took the wind out of the team sails after such a promising start to the season.
Throughout camp, San Antonio had stressed its level of commitment to playing defense and rebounding, and development in those areas had been obvious thanks in large part to Sochan’s energy and nonstop motor. His contributions didn’t stop there, though. He had also become a primary cog in the offense, wreaking havoc in the open court, cutting and diving with abandon, and attacking the glass — all while guarding the other team’s best player and getting into some kind of scuffle almost every night. Was it always the most aesthetically pleasing brand of basketball we’ve ever seen? Absolutely not. Had it been effective? You betcha.
Grade: B+ (The only reason I can’t make this an ‘A’ is because of the 3-point and free-throw shooting numbers. We knew these would be an issue and a major work in progress, but teams are simply treating Sochan as a complete non-threat on the perimeter in the half-court, and he’s thus far taken a dip when he gets to the line. Even a slight bump in those areas would be meaningful. Also, there have been some defensive lapses in between excellent stretches of defense. I suspect that’s because he was expending so much energy on both sides of the ball, though, and the return of Vassell should help a ton in that capacity.)
Since I went so long on Vic (appropriately, I hope), I’ll steer you to what I wrote about Sochan and Wembanyama last week in case you missed it and would like to read more:
Chris Paul
10.3 pts, 8.1 ast, 3.6 reb, 1.1 stl | 45.0 FG%, 37 3P%
+1.6 net rating in 28.3 mpg (10 games)
Even understanding what we already knew about the Point God, it’s impressive that he was able to parachute into a new system with a bunch of kids and average 10.3 assists per 36 minutes right off the bat. And while his relationship with Wembanyama is still developing — the flashes have been there with the lobs, quick-hitters and entry passes whenever Vic seals his man — it feels like it’s been the rest of the roster that’s benefitted most.
It’s always been entertaining to watch Paul orchestrate offenses over the years, but getting to watch up close and in person on a regular basis has been even more of a treat. His ability to stay a step ahead of defenses intellectually and deliver passes with such great timing and accuracy has made life easier for everyone involved, and he’s shown he’s still got the legs to go on little scoring sprees when he senses they’re needed.
On top of it all, the 3-pointer is still there, and the Spurs can use every bit of added spacing they can get. It was an underrated element of his signing: Not only is this guy an elite facilitator, but he’s a career 37-percent shooter from deep. And I’d imagine he’ll start to see more chances from the outside as the rest of the offense hopefully gets healthier and finds a better rhythm.
Grade: B (Paul has been solid (if unspectacular) to begin his Spurs run. There are still little blips where he seems unsure about the next right step to take in the flow of the offense, and the chemistry with Wemby and others is still building, but it should only get better from here — especially with Vassell’s return alleviating a chunk of the responsibility. Yes, Devin being back in action is a common theme in all the analysis you’ve seen here today, and it will continue to be.)
Keldon Johnson
12.7 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.4 ast | 44.3 FG%, 24.4 3P%
-7.5 net rating in 27.5 mpg (10 games)
After a very slow start through the first week-plus of the season, during which it seemed neither he nor the team were in sync with one another, things have started to flow much more smoothly on the offensive end. Johnson is picking and choosing his spots effectively, where before many of his attempts felt forced, and it appears as though he’s sinking into that bench role.
And it’s a good sign he’s starting to gain traction now, because he’s one of the players on the team who most misses Tre Jones. The two have always had a strong connection, so his return should help to further spark Keldon and the rest of that second unit.
Defensively, while he’s still prone to the mental mistakes and perhaps always will be, the increased activity at his new playing weight has been noticeable. Both his steal and block rates are on the uptick compared to last season, as is his defensive-rebounding rate. These are the good signs. On the flip side, he’s still struggling with screen navigation and off-ball chasing, and attention to detail when he’s not guarding one-on-one comes and goes. As things get more serious and defenses begin to lock in more, it’s going to be interesting to watch for improvement in these areas.
Grade: C+ (I generally feel things are trending up for Keldon, but the 3-pointer simply has to come along, and you’d like to see evidence of the increased passing awareness he’s displayed the last couple of seasons. Right now he too often plays like the bull in a China shop he used to be, which isn’t the worst thing in the world when he’s challenging the right interior defenders. And as I mentioned already, we’ve gotta pay attention to whether or not he starts to pay more attention to detail defensively.)
Harrison Barnes
9.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.5 ast | 50.7 FG%, 34.4 3P%
-1.5 net rating in 28.5 mpg (10 games)
Barnes has been pretty much exactly what you expected him to be: a steadying force throughout the lineup — not much more, not much less.
He makes smart decisions with the ball, doesn’t turn it over often, has been a really good finisher and interior shot maker, and plays solid defense even as he’s lost a step over the years. And while I have not exactly gone back and analyzed this closely, it feels like he’s been one of the team’s bail-out shot guys, and it’s that willingness to take difficult attempts when necessary that’s led to a mediocre average from deep. Much like everyone else, I’m sure he will benefit from Vassell’s gravity as well.
Grade: B- (Not much left to say on this one. If he can get that 3-point percentage closer to his career average, he’ll be everything the Spurs had hoped he’d be.)
Julian Champagnie
10.3 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.7 ast | 45.3 FG%, 36.7 3P%
+0.5 net rating in 27.8 mpg (10 games)
Champagnie’s development has been about as linear as you’ll ever see in an athlete. Little by little, his confidence continues to grow, his ball-handling keeps improving, he’s added to his spot-up game by showing an ability to attack closeouts, he’s making passes off the dribble, he’s grown his spatial awareness, he’s hardly ever hesitating when he has a chance to shoot, and his defense is obviously still there.
He really does remind me of a slightly less efficient Danny Green, both in the way he can get hot from 3 on one end, and has become the team’s best non-Victor chase-down block/steal guy. He’s also probably the most obvious candidate to take Green’s old nickname, Icy Hot, as he’s an even more extreme example of a streaky shooter.
Danny actually hated that nickname, and I doubt Julian would like it either. So even though it’s objectively good, maybe we won’t do that.
Grade B+ (As is the case with most of these young guys, there’s another level for Champ. He’s more than capable of pushing that 3-point percentage closer to 38 or 39, and there have been a few defensive lapses here and there. But improvements in both areas are attainable. We’ve already seen proof of it.)
Stephon Castle
8.4 pts, 2.5 reb, 2.5 ast | 37.3 FG%, 19.4 3P%
-3.5 net rating in 22.5 mpg (10 games)
It’s always enjoyable (at least for those of us who write about prospects before they enter the NBA Draft) to see a rookie’s skill set and athletic profile translate from college to the pros directly in line with their scouting reports, and teams are no doubt ecstatic when they get the product they’d hoped they were getting when they made the pick in the first place.
Castle has fit that description perfectly, and then some.
The shooting needs work, but the form isn’t too far off from being consistent. Plus, this is something we knew would be the case from the start. Even more importantly at this juncture, however, are all the positives he brought with his game from UConn: The patience, the intelligence, the pace, the defense, the rebounding, the physicality — it’s all there, and it turns out he’s already gaining the respect of officials’ whistles, too.
And at the risk of overloading folks with another plug from a previous article, I thought it’d be fun for anyone who missed it to go back and check out my scout on him last spring. Pretty much all the good stuff we saw from him in school is playing out from the start:
Grade: B (This grade is quickly on the move as he becomes more and more settled into the league. The shooting is on the upswing, he’s already processing the game around him more quickly now than he did at the very beginning of the season, and the mistakes are fewer and farther in between. He still has a long way to go, but you can just tell he has “it.”
Zach Collins
5.9 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.1 ast | 45.2 FG%, 47.1 3P%
-2.5 net rating in 14.0 mpg (10 games)
It’s easy to get distracted on the Collins rollercoaster ride, but lost in the shuffle of the bobbles, stumbles and moving screens has been a solid start to the season.
The 3-point shot has seemingly returned (albeit in a more limited capacity), and the slight weight loss over the summer has contributed to noticeably improved mobility on both ends. Now it’s just about consistency.
Even forgetting the good shooting nights, he’s had games where he plays the kind of stable, positive-impact basketball that got him paid — where he’s not rushing, he’s patiently waiting for cutters, he’s taking his time in the post, and he’s playing aggressively without fouling. These are things that should be replicable, and when he’s hitting his 3s it’s a whole different ball game.
But he just hasn’t been able to string these performances together yet, and for some reason his mistakes seem more glaring compared to those of his teammates (maybe save for Keldon). Although, it’s probably because people are watching closely for them, which I guess is understandable after last season’s struggles.
Grade: C+ (Similar to Keldon, there have been some positive trends with Collins so far this season. We just have to see an elevated level of focus and consistency.)
Blake Wesley
4.3 pts, 2.0 ast | 41.7 FG%, 22.2 3P%
-5.8 net rating in 11.4 mpg (10 games)
Somewhere between supersonic speed and tip-toeing around exists a sweet spot for Wesley, who seems to be in a constant search for that perfect pace.
When he’s moving too quickly, the decision-making can’t keep up with his athleticism; when he’s moving to slowly and thinking too much, he’s turns into nothing more than a caretaker while Paul rests. While he has improved as a game manager, that’s not where he’s most effective. That’s not where he’s at his most threatening.
Wesley is at his best when he’s wreaking havoc defensively and getting on his horse in the open floor. In the half-court, teams are leaving him open from 3 until he proves he can hit consistently. But when he’s able to use his quickness to exploit the defense, whether that’s in driving lanes when they materialize or with a steady diet of backdoor cuts, he’s got a much better shot at making meaningful impact when he’s on the court.
Grade: C (To his credit, where the game used to move 100 mph for him at all times, he’s learned to slow down and take care of the ball, and he doesn’t get his shot blocked nearly as often as he used to. Now it’s just about finding that middle ground.)
Malaki Branham
10.0 pts, 1.9 reb, 1.1 ast | 52.5 FG%, 52.0 3P%
-7.2 net rating in 16.3 mpg (9 games)
I’m not sure anyone on the team has had the kind of turnaround from preseason to regular season Branham’s had.
After a tumultuous start to the year, which included a slightly suspicious DNP (Did Not Play) following a couple of poor early performances, Branham had been locked through the first nine games of the season and before spraining his ankle late last week. I haven’t had a chance to ask him about it yet, but he seems to be under direction to focus on scoring whenever he’s on the court, rather than halfway taking the job of backup point guard as he’s had to do in the past. And the results have been there.
Branham has been aggressive getting to the rim, and when he’s got good opportunities on the perimeter he’s splashing them at a ridiculous rate. This is the kind of microwave scorer San Antonio had envisioned when it drafted him; and while that kind of shooting is not going to last an entire year, they hope he’s become the sharpshooter they saw coming out of Ohio State, too.
Grade: B+ (Should he be able to cut back on some of the mental mistakes and continue to tighten up the defense, Branham could jump into ‘A’ territory if the scoring maintains at an efficient rate. This is about as good of a start as one could expect.)
Sandro Mamukelashvili
3.9 pts, 2.6 reb | 60 FG%, 50 3P%
-0.8 net rating in 7.6 mpg (8 games)
I actually think the Spurs have been using Mamu almost perfectly so far this season: If they need an offensive spark (or if there’s an injury), just go to him and see what happens.
There are certain things, particularly on the defensive end, that will likely prevent him from being a regular rotation player on a crowded roster, but he is the epitome of a situational role guy. Basically anyone you talk to around the team and fan base alike wants to find ways to get Mamu on the court, and so far they’ve done what Pop said he needed to do more toward the end of last season — just play the man.
Grade: B (He hasn’t had one of those crazy Mamu games yet, but you know one’s coming at some point. In the mean time, if he just continues to do the job that’s asked of him, he’ll be just fine in this role.)
Devin Vassell
21.0 pts, 2.0 ast, 1.0 reb | 61.5 FG%, 50.0 3P%
-27.7 net rating in 21.7 mpg (1 game)
Welcome back, sir.
Grade: A++++++++
Mitch Johnson
I’ve never liked grading coaches, but it was among the most requested additions to this grading exercise. So here we are.
For now, this one’s easy. Johnson has done a great job keeping everyone’s head above water during a strange and uncomfortable week while trying to make things feel as normal as possible in Pop’s stead.
Grade: A+ (This is an easy one. The basketball coaching analysis can wait until next time.)
Wow, OK, I hope these 3700-plus words were enough to satiate everyone who’s been waiting for EC to return. I promise your read time will be much shorter for the next edition. And for anyone whose name you didn’t see, just know they’ve got an INC. this time.
My favorite article of the season so far. Keep it up! :)
Who said anything about wanting shorter??? 😝 I, for one, am in favor of all the long form content you want to put out. Thanks for the time and effort on this. It was a great read, Matt!