Mailbag: More Keldon talk, a look behind the scenes in Spurs world, and a minute on Malaki
Plus we get into some positional conversations, as well as what San Antonio's approach to free agency might look like.
I appreciate everyone who submitted questions for what turned out to be a fairly wide-ranging mailbag. The Keldon Johnson conversation continues to be on folks’ minds, but there was also interest in the center position, what things look like behind the scenes from a media-access standpoint, and what Malaki Branham’s actual position is going to be. Plenty to read here, so choose your own path!
(Also, thank you to those of you who submitted your advice for Nuggets fans. Since this went long I’m going to post that in a separate newsletter, and hopefully have a little fun with it.)
QUAN (writer of Equanomics newsletter):
I’m just so curious about what the Spurs are going to do with Keldon Johnson. There is virtually no reason to trade him, as his contract is super friendly, he’s young with plenty of upside and he’s been a loyal soldier. But if the team wants to upgrade, he’s likely one of their best trade assets. What do you see happening, and if anything, when?
Yeah, as I wrote recently, the Spurs aren’t going to trade him unless it’s for a clear-cut, obvious long-term upgrade because of all the things you mentioned and more. But because he is one of their best assets, and because the team is still in a state of flux, it’s at least a talking point. For example, San Antonio isn’t just immediately hanging up the phone if Keldon’s name is brought up by an inquiring suitor, but it does not seem to me like they’re actively shopping him. At his point of the process, the front office just has to be open to talking business.
As for what this process looks like? Listen, I’m not a draft guy who follows these college players year-round, or goes back all that often to their high-school film, so take what I say with a grain of salt. But I do lock into certain prospects and watch hours of tape on each of them, and I believe there are five or six players at most who would potentially be worth the move. It isn’t about any sort of doubt in prospects Nos. 6 or 7 or whatever; it’s about the belief San Antonio isn’t going to trade Keldon for a project with upside but major questions. Plus, I’m just a big believer in his potential fit going forward with this group.
Still, there is no doubting he’s an interesting piece from a number of perspectives. My gut says Johnson will be in San Antonio next season, but if the Spurs do slow-play this thing and cash in their many picks to move up in both this year’s draft and the ones to follow, there’s a very real chance things are going to get crowded somewhere down the line. And if he lives up to expectations, that front-loaded contract is going to look really appealing for a team in search of a wing with his skill set.
And while trading up for draft picks is on the forefront of people’s minds, there may come a time down the line where we see a trade involving two established players rather than rookies. The Spurs aren’t too concerned about exact fits right now, but they will be relatively soon. And when you’re looking for exact fits, you’re generally not talking about rookies. If there comes a day Keldon is traded, my bet would be on a player-for-player move if the situation requires it. (And no, it’s not going to be for soon-to-be supermax Jaylen Brown.)
I obviously can’t say for sure Johnson will finish his career in San Antonio considering the circumstances, but I do believe he’s going to have the opportunity to show he belongs in town for the long run. That to a degree, this is still his team, from a spiritual and leadership standpoint especially.
But as we all know, that only goes so far. He’s going to have to continue making leaps in order to truly secure his job for the long haul.
Cory Zanoni (writer of unzen newsletter):
How much is the lack of chatter about the Spurs come from their refusal to play the media game (even locally)?
Context: I'll never find the clip, but I saw a video a while ago of three Spurs radio guys saying that the organisation never gives them anything (even soundbites or station stings) outside of incredibly narrow guardrails — their argument boiling down to, “We want to help promote your players, but you won't let us.” They went on to argue that this controlling attitude may irk some younger players who are conscious of their brands.
Spurs public relations is very conscious about what its players want while also remaining aware of the organization’s preferences. But as that group changes, and as the team changes, I know it realizes the importance of exposure at the right time, and with the right people. I don’t know who these radio guys are, so I can’t and won’t comment on that aspect of things, but there’s always a game to play I guess.
For the longest time, Spurs PR had a group of players and coaches who didn’t really care about the spotlight, and in some cases outright shunned it. But on the whole they’ve always believed in keeping the media at bay, as there is zero interest in words being spun the wrong way and taken out of context, or some sort of small drama being blown out of proportion, or any sort of critical information being revealed. They want to keep things as close to the vest as possible — which is just good business so long as everyone is on board with the practice — and work hard to make sure nobody says the thing that gets anyone else in trouble, however serious.
Things are going to be interesting moving forward, though. A lot more attention is coming the Spurs’ way next year with more national and international media members on the premises; and while I have no idea what Victor Wembanyama wants from an exposure perspective, requests for his availability are going to be constant. Will he be the next Tim Duncan and prefer everyone just leave him alone, or will he want to talk to people and promote his brand? I guess time will tell, but I do know that public relations group is going to be logging overtime hours.
They’ve always worked in a way that balances what they believe is best for the players and what the players believe is best for themselves, and that’s almost always resulted in less chatter. Spurs PR has a lot to do with San Antonio’s general quietness, but more often than not the players who have come through here prefer the privacy as well. It goes both ways. Media members get annoyed by this because they want the clip or the bite that hits, with which I totally empathize; but it is part of playing the so-called “game” with this organization, and I think reactions like the one you outlined from the radio guys stem from self-interest rather than actual concern over what irks the players. Because at the end of the day, if a player wants to talk, he’ll talk.
Pablo A:
1. How many years are fans guaranteed to have Wemby in SA?
2. Zach is great, no doubt. If he plays next season as he did as a starter, what will market be for him when he’s a FA? Can we extend him now if we don’t pick up option for next season?
1. Technically two years (team has options after the second season), but almost assuredly four years. And yet, I’m sure everyone hopes it’s a hell of a lot longer than that. Are people already freaking out about this or something? Dude hasn’t even been drafted yet.
2. There’s always going to be a market for bigs who can both defend the rim at a high level and shoot the 3-pointer at nearly a 40-percent clip. But there’s an even bigger market for such players when they can also pass, which Collins can.
It’s difficult to say what his price range would be at this point — it will easily be eight figures, though — because, A) he only has a couple of months as a starter on his resume, and B) every team is going to have to parse through concerns over his injury history. But Collins has been steady and healthy since returning last season from the foot and ankle problems that essentially cost him two years of his career. Availability is the most critical metric in this math problem, and he’s had zero setbacks.
As for Collins’ extension eligibility, the Spurs have until the day after the NBA Draft to guarantee his contract for next season — which they will almost assuredly do unless something crazy happens. Then, on the second anniversary of his signing in early August, they’ll be able to offer an extension if they so choose. Either way they won’t be dropping the option to guarantee him unless there’s some handshake deal in place for an immediate new contract. You don’t want to mess around with free agency. At the very least, his third year will be guaranteed, and then we’ll see about an extension. A lot of moving parts, but unless the Spurs see Wemby moving to the ‘five’ in the next year or two, I’d expect Collins to be around for a little while.
Jack Thomas:
On February 14th the Spurs signed Charles Bassey to a 4-year, $10-million contract. Roughly half appears guaranteed. A month to the day later he fractured his patella. A couple of months later the Spurs won the NBA Draft lottery. While I think Wemby will play the ‘four’, the Spurs front-court is slowly accumulating more interesting prospects. What does this mean for Chuck, newly acquired Khem Birch or my vet leader Gorgui? Not to mention Sandro Mamukelashvili, who played rather well since he joined the team.
The Spurs have options, but who is long for the team, who is a moveable salary or who might get cut loose with plentiful cap space?
Funnily enough, I feel this is the most straightforward positional hierarchy on the team as it heads into the offseason.
Guarantee Collins’ third year and sign him to an extension if you want, then get Bassey back and healthy (which the Spurs feel will be the case) and slot him into the backup spot. From there it’s kind of a toss-up, considering there was no opportunity to see what Birch could do on the court due to the right-knee chondromalacia that kept him out for the entirety of his first half-season in San Antonio. He’s got one year left on his current deal at roughly $6 million, so the Spurs will take a look if he’s healthy.
But the third center position on an NBA roster is about as interchangeable as it gets in the league. So if he looks good and fits what they want to do, great; if he doesn’t, or if he’s not, the team can afford to move on — whether by trade (ideally) or by waiving him — especially if the aforementioned beloved veteran Gorgui Dieng is hanging around.
I only sort of kid about that last part. The Spurs are going to have to make some roster decisions — especially with guys like Mamu, Julian Champagnie and Dominick Barlow — but with another young frontcourt player soon to be in the mix, Gorgui’s leadership would be a tangible, valuable asset in and of itself.
And since you brought up Mamu: While he isn’t a center and really shouldn’t factor into that positional discussion, his roster spot sure will. I think it’s important to note San Antonio signed him to a standard deal immediately upon claiming him off waivers, which indicates there’s a bit more certainty in their interest level long term. But much like last season, I don’t believe we’re going to have a true feel for their next moves until after the conclusion of the NBA Draft. There are just too many dudes on the back end of the roster who have shown promise, and as it stands now, three more draft slots that may be filled. There’s only so much room, though the inclusion of an extra Two-Way spot beginning next season is going to help.
But at the top of that center position it’s easy: Collins is your starter, and Chuck is your backup. Unless they stumble into a clear upgrade in the draft, free agency, or on the trade market, that’s a solid, versatile duo with plenty of upside.
Steve Miranda:
If you could only have one, who would you rather have on this Spurs roster when training camp starts: Anthony Black or Keldon Johnson?
OK, I try to avoid the subjective stuff as much as possible, but it’s that wonky time of year.
I’m a big fan of Black. The combination of vision, passing and high-level processing at 6’7 is a joy to watch, his finishing ability around the rim for a college team with very little space was impressive, and his perimeter defense is elite. I think he’s going to be a very good player. Maybe even awesome. Like a potential plus version of Josh Giddey who sometimes flashes Jason Kidd-type stuff with the ball in his hands. He’s a lot of fun to watch.
But as I mentioned earlier, if Keldon has to go it won’t be for a ‘maybe’ prospect, and Black comes with a huge question mark: His shot is rough.
It’s crazy to me how so many of these guards just can’t shoot in the year 2023 — an era of young players that grew up watching Steph Curry. But here we are, and it raises real concerns about spacing over the long haul. Especially considering the Spurs already have a major shooting project of their own in Jeremy Sochan.
So yeah, long story short, I don’t trade Keldon to move up for Black. At worst, Johnson can become an asset at a later date if the Spurs have identified the exact right piece. But at this point, he’s got the clearest value of the two, and lest we forget, he’s still young. Give me Keldon on the wing and let’s see how this plays out going forward. That value isn’t going anywhere, so there’s no need to force anything.
Bonus question: Where would you set the over/under on number of All-Star games that Sandro Mamukelashvili will play in over the course of his career?
Have a good rest of your day, Steve.
Richard:
Is there a compelling case to be made for NOT trading Keldon Johnson for another lottery pick or prospect right now; maybe not giving up so easily on the guy who 1) is the beating heart of the team and the culture the young core is forming together; 2) helped Spurs fans survive the pandemic with his "Summer of Keldon" bubble breakout and tantalizing 2021-22 follow-up; 3) has the classy team-first character to accept a lesser role this coming season if asked of him, even coming off the bench; 4) has a contract and a pedigree that will be just as tradable a year from now if Wemby Year 1 doesn't produce results?
There’s absolutely a case, and I think you just outlined a large chunk of it!
In all seriousness, I’m not sure what more there is to write on the topic than what we’ve already covered and what you’ve laid out in your question. But I did write at length on the Keldon situation, just in case anyone missed it.
There are two sides to the argument, and one can find logic in both. I think it’s important to understand, if the Spurs do trade him it would have nothing to do with giving up; and if they don’t trade him, it won’t be because they’re being softies or thinking with their hearts over their brains.
Keldon is a valuable player and person on a great contract. That combination is appealing to anyone, and it is only good business to have the discussion both ways. Regardless, yes, there’s a great case for him to remain in San Antonio, for the many reasons we’ve listed.
Zach Carlson:
What’re your thoughts on going after RFAs for teams that are going to be approaching the second tax apron such as Austin Reaves and Grant Williams?
What are the chances the Spurs bring back Patty Mills, Danny Green, George Hill, or another former Spur at the end of their career to be a vet and show the young guys the Spurs way?
Sam Baskin:
Can you deep dive into potential realistic options if the Spurs used their cap space (since we have to get to the salary cap floor) to take on a troubling salary for another team for draft assets? Examples: Lonzo Ball, Davis Bertans, Ben Simmons, Jusuf Nurkic, etc… at what point is the price too high for the return on asset?
I’m going to combine questions here since they’re in the same free-agency space.
At this juncture, it’s unlikely the Spurs go on a deep foray into free agency. They’ve got a group they’d like to move forward with, and they’re about to potentially have to pay a number of players. And with the new, extremely punitive luxury-tax restrictions, you’re not about to see this team spend up for role players when it’s not ready to compete for a title. They’ve got to budget for the future, and including bloated free-agent contracts is not a great idea at this point. If you think the Lakers and Celtics want to avoid that second apron… meet San Antonio.
For example, Reaves has played himself into a contract that might be worth $20 million annually, and I think it would be worth asking: Whose spot would he take in the starting lineup? You’re not signing a bench player for that much money, not even for $15 million if we get a little more conservative. The same question can be asked about someone like Williams. Unless a Keldon trade happens, it just doesn’t make logistical sense. It is always better to build around team-controlled contracts. (Also, Grant Williams, bleh…)
The only area of concern (if you want to call it that) is reaching that salary-cap floor. If the team stays below it, it would not be eligible to receive luxury-tax payments after next season, as outlined by the new collective bargaining agreement. That is real incentive for the small markets to get above that line. But here’s the catch: I’m not sure how much that would actually hurt the Spurs.
Wembanyama is about to create a serious influx of cash for San Antonio, and payments from taxpayers go to the teams who are most struggling in that department. The Spurs have a situation on their hands regarding television rights now that Diamond Sports Group (Bally) has filed for bankruptcy, but something tells me they’re going to be able to figure out how to put Victor in everyone’s homes.
That’s a bit of an aside, though — just thinking out loud. I do believe the Spurs are going to get to the salary floor. They’ve always covered their business bases, and that doesn’t change with the winning of the top pick.
At this point, the Spurs are looking at about a $36-million jump in order to get there, an amount they can eat into pretty thoroughly with front-loaded contracts depending on how they deal with their own free agents. But if they do want to dip into the rest of the NBA pool, it would likely be for a young veteran who won’t get in anyone’s way from a rotation standpoint, and who will also figure into long-term plans. Those albatross contracts mentioned in the question above? I would not count on any of them.
The Spurs got their man, and they still have plenty of assets to burn. Acquiring multiple years of a terrible contract and very little long-term promise just isn’t in the cards. At some point they have to move on from pick accumulation and focus on building an actual roster anyway, and that time is likely now considering they’ve already traded the pieces with which they were willing to part ways.
Plus, you’re just never going to get the kind of return on investment you’re looking for, especially now that draft picks have become significantly more valuable. Teams are no longer going to pay exorbitant prices just to unload a bad contract. Look at what happened at the trade deadline as an example, where only four first-round picks were dealt in total. Even the title-hopeful Lakers had to unload just one 2027 first-rounder to get rid of Russell Westbrook, which ain’t much! Neither the leverage nor the spending capacity is quite what it used to be.
If there’s a short contract out there (like the aforementioned Westbrook deal) that could help them get to the salary floor and wouldn’t have long-term cap implications, you might be talking. But the best route at this point might be to simply focus on available free agents.
Here’s the thing, though: There is not much interesting about this class, and even the guys who are appealing either feel like long shots to sign or, again, just don’t really make sense. I’m going to write about potential free agents once we get past the draft and the official start of the offseason begins, but I’m not gonna lie, the Spurs may be better off simply re-signing their own players — whether that’s Tre Jones or Keita Bates-Diop, or any of the other young players who showed them something late last season. But I will get to potential free agents when I have some more space.
As for bringing familiar vets back to the team, I wouldn’t hold my breath on that. Most of those dudes still want to play, and the Spurs don’t really have available playing time. On top of that, there are guys in San Antonio who, despite still being young, are very much entering the ‘young veteran’ portions of their careers. You can have players like Dieng, KBD, Doug McDermott and Devonte’ Graham around to offer guidance — and all those guys do, btw — but the kids need room to grow up themselves. They’ve been learning the “Spurs Way” for a while now, so it isn’t something that’s escaped them in theory. Now it just has to translate to actual winning, and that’s the next step.
Trevor Zickgraf:
This free-agent class stinks. Did you see anything from Malaki Branham (BranHIM, the Branimal) that makes you think he could take on some lead ballhandling duties next season and beyond, even if it's just with the second unit?
Man I came so close to deleting those nicknames from the question. I really appreciate your influence in that capacity, Trevor. Everyone is HIM or HER though, and I just have to accept that moving forward. That’s on me at this point.
But I don’t think Branham is ever going to be in a role like the one he was in last season, specifically from a point guard perspective. That isn’t to say he won’t improve as a ball-handler and passer or anything like that — I’m sure he will — but the team doesn’t view him as a lead facilitator; it views him as an off-guard with secondary ball-handling capabilities.
The “position-less” stuff can sort of convolute the picture though. Like, could he potentially play in lineups that feature Johnson, Sochan, Devin Vassell and (Big Man X)? Sure. Will he bring the ball up at times and run some pick and roll? Absolutely, considering he showed he’s capable of at least doing that. But as this team forms, it’s unlikely that’s going to be his primary duty. It’s just not really what he is.
I’m not gonna go digging through audio, but Gregg Popovich was asked late in the season about Malaki’s development as a point guard. His response, albeit terse on a day when he wasn’t very talkative, was pretty clear: “He’s not a point guard.”
He wasn’t criticizing Branham or anything, he was just pointing out the obvious really. The Spurs went through multiple hellish stretches at the point guard position last season, and someone had to soak up some minutes. In the long run, there’s no question it was good for Branham during an all-in developmental year, but I wouldn’t count on the time he spent running the offense as evidence of that being in the team’s future plans. At least not on a regular basis.
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Thanks for the write-up! Agreed on not trading Keldon in a move for Black, even though I’m a huge fan of his. I think the most likely trade on draft day if one happens is probably using future picks to get back into the 10-14 range for Cason Wallace, which I would still be hyped for (but most likely there’s no trade at all)
Great stuff, Matthew. Thoroughly enjoyed it. It’s a great feeling being so anxious to watch an offseason unfold! I never stopped following the team, but you can only manufacture so much excitement during rebuilding seasons 🤷🏼♂️
Draft & FA should be very exciting. As much talk (speculation) as there is about a high-profile trade, I’m hoping they do what you seem to predict, run it back with the existing team plus VW and see what we have. KJ, hopefully a full season of healthy Vassell, and the all-important Year 2 of development for Sochan and I think there’s more on this roster than most national journalists think (although many of the good ones have noted our solid young core). Not predicting a top 4 seed, but I do think something higher than play-in is possible if some of our guys take a “next step”.