Jeremy Sochan continues his rise, as Jakob Poeltl stirs trade season from its slumber
Despite their team's difficult slide in recent weeks, the two Spurs have continued to demonstrate their significant and potentially very different types of value.
Despite the Spurs quickly falling back to earth after an entertaining early season romp through potential title-contenders, the rise of Jeremy Sochan has provided the kind of dopamine hit necessary to keep interest alive and anticipation for the future bubbling, even through all the losses.
Ahead of opening night, Gregg Popovich said he was going to throw the rookie into the “frying pan” by making him the team’s starting ‘four’ from the get-go, but it’s turned out that meant much more than simply a lineup spot. As the season has moved along, Sochan has quickly adapted to different roles within the system. During the feeling-out process, he was almost exclusively spotting up on the perimeter or taking advantage of the defense’s divided attention by cutting to the basket whenever he had the chance. But now, with every game, he’s adding more and more to the portfolio.
While he remains a pressure-release valve on the perimeter and as a cutter, Sochan’s repertoire has expanded to include primary ball-handling duties, dribble-handoff operations, and post-ups when guarded by smaller players. And while the outside shot simply hasn’t been falling — he’s down to a brutal 18.2 percent from the 3-point line — he’s shown scoring flashes from all points inside the arc, and on a number of different shot types. We’ve seen the dunks and layups that have led to his 76-percent mark near the rim, but it’s been the runners, baby hooks, turnarounds and pull-ups that have given us glimpses of his potential.
Attempts away from the rim have come at a low volume to this point, but Sochan is 12-for-25 on all mid-range shots this season. He seems much more comfortable, and his form looks much more natural when he’s getting to his spots and letting momentum carry him into the shooting motion. The problem is, until he’s able to fix his spot-up mechanics, he’s going to be faced with a wall of defenders sagging into the paint whenever he touches the ball on the outside. When bodies are just sitting in your comfort zones, it makes it difficult to find space and create good looks.
The flashes are tantalizing, but a lot more has to fall into place before this side of his game becomes more prolific.
Defensively, however, Sochan has been as advertised. Per BBall Index ($), he’s contested 5.89 shots at the rim per 75 possessions (93rd percentile among wings) while also having registered 1.29 steals and 2.25 deflections per 75 possessions (81st and 66th percentiles, respectively), but it’s been his versatility that’s grabbed the most attention. The rookie has spent a steady amount of time defending almost every player type he comes across.
(Offensive role): (Percentage of time spent defending player type)
Primary/Secondary ball-handlers: 20.78 percent
Shot creators: 19.17 percent
Slashers: 12.69 percent
Athletic finishers: 11.66 percent
Movement/Off-screen shooters: 10.55 percent
Stationary shooters: 9.16 percent
Roll-cut bigs: 9.52 percent
Stretch bigs: 4.67 percent
Post scorers: 1.7 percent
So far this season, Sochan has already been tasked with primary defensive duties on players like Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, Steph Curry, DeMar DeRozan, De’Aaron Fox and Paul George (just to name a handful) — an archetypal hodgepodge of offensive weapons.
Defense was Sochan’s primary appeal coming out of college, but it was the potential on the other side of the ball that made him a top-10 selection. Given his diverse skill set, there was no obvious path toward a particular offensive archetype — he’s like a ball of clay that can be molded into any preferred shape allowed by his physical and athletic dimensions. But whatever he becomes in his final form, he’s going to have the ball in his hands often in the years ahead, and early returns suggest San Antonio is going to be just fine when he does.
If Sochan and the Spurs can figure out how to fix his 3-point shot, it would lift the cap on the already lofty amount of potential he can achieve.
Jakob Poeltl is showing the Spurs (and other teams) some new tricks
Just as the holidays are already upon us, so to is transactional rumor-mill season in the NBA — a festive, months-long stretch of time full of podcast fodder, clickbait and speculation, during which the Spurs are likely to be a major topic.
A quick Google search of “Jakob Poeltl” news yields almost nothing but trade-gossip headlines, likely fueled at least partially by the big man’s scorched-earth performance (34 pts, 14 reb, 5 ast) against the porous back line of the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. It was a sort of coming-out party for a player who San Antonio has always valued tremendously, and whose game is featuring a few new wrinkles this season.
What stood out most during Poeltl’s big night — and over the last 10 days in general — was the versatility he flashed offensively, something we don’t often think about when analyzing his game. The cuts to the rim and flashes into the paint for easy scores have always been critical tools in his repertoire, but dribble-drive Jak has been a fresh development.
Poeltl has scored 14 points in spot-up situations over the last five games, per Synergy data, and clearly they’re not coming on jump shots. Instead, Jak has been catching the ball and attacking the rim with success.
The Spurs often treat their center as a safety outlet, flipping him the ball at the elbow when the offense stagnates, and subsequently sending perimeter players his way to look for dribble-handoff chances. Defenses know this, and despite Poeltl being no threat to score from the outside, his screening ability forces them to come out and defend the action lest they give up easy looks to the recipients of Jak’s passes coming off picks.
But Poeltl has begun to counter their aggressiveness. When opposing big men jump out to help, he’s using their momentum against them and utilizing his underrated athleticism to attack the basket. During this five-game stretch, Jak has driven the ball 3.2 times per game — more than triple his season average from last year — and gone 9-for-11 from the floor on those forays into the paint. By no means is that a large number compared to the likes of Joel Embiid (7.0 drives per game), but it’s more than enough to keep defenses honest and potentially clear more space for both himself and his teammates.
It may not mean a ton to sliding San Antonio right now, but these bits of blossoming play increase a player’s value — whether that’s for the future Spurs or for any current contender looking to trade for a center. The defense, playmaking, screening and pick-and-roll proficiency have long been staples of Poeltl’s game, but the added threat of efficiently scoring off the dribble will pique the curiosity of any interested party even further.
Trade rumors have been surrounding Poeltl since last season, and the feeling around the team is it’s going to take a substantial offer to pry him away. Much like the Dejounte Murray trade over the summer or the Derrick White trade before that, San Antonio likely has a price in mind for their big man. And if it can’t be met, the Spurs may decide it’s worth trying to bring Jak back with a new contract during the offseason. He’s a valuable player who makes life easier on everyone around him, and it’s unlikely he’ll command a deal that’s going to break the bank and substantially diminish any future trade value.
The inherent risk, of course, is Poeltl could decide he wants to move on to a team that’s ready to compete in the postseason, which could potentially leave San Antonio emptyhanded if he chose to leave in free agency. But the reality of the situation is there will be almost no projected contenders with the kind of cap space it would take to lure him away from the Spurs. That means, even if he decided he wanted to find a more attractive situation, a sign-and-trade could likely be the best option for both Poeltl and the team. And San Antonio could live with that type of worst-case scenario.
Whether it’s over the course of the next couple of months or during the summer, there will almost certainly be a market for Poeltl, regardless of timing. And while teams are typically less desperate during the offseason, the Spurs can still afford to be patient throughout the proceedings.
If Poeltl remains in San Antonio, the current roster will be better for it. If he’s shipped out for assets at some point, chances are high his price tag would yield a return that would help meaningfully bolster the Spurs’ future.
Regardless, the team stands to benefit from the rock-solid player Poeltl has become.
Interesting match up stats for Sochan. Also interesting to hear about Poetl’s drives.