In search of The Guy in San Antonio, if he's even there yet
The departure of DeMar DeRozan left a massive offensive void the Spurs will have to fill, especially late in close games. Time to start looking.
Photo credit: Associated Press
It’s been a hot minute since the Spurs last entered a season without knowing exactly where the ball was going in the event of an offensive tailspin, let alone at the end of close games. Whether it was Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge or DeMar DeRozan (hell, you can even throw Patty Mills in there), Gregg Popovich has had someone capable of opening the escape hatch when it was needed most throughout the entirety of his coaching tenure in San Antonio.
The importance of a steady offense over the course of an entire basketball game is obvious, and a strong system — something the Spurs have always had, regardless of offensive focal point(s) — goes a long way in providing a structure through which a roster can maximize its potential efficiency over the course of 48 minutes. But at the end of games, arguably no other team sport relies more on the individual than basketball, especially at the NBA level. A system only goes as far as the sum of its parts when the clamps are on and a basket is needed.
During the 2020-21 season, San Antonio lived in clutch situations (defined as the last five minutes of a game during which the point differential was five points or fewer), spending 168 total minutes confined by the clock and a tight scoreboard, per NBA Stats. Only the Washington Wizards (169 minutes) played in more nail-biters than the Spurs, and unsurprisingly it was DeRozan who almost always shouldered the bulk of the responsibility down the stretch.
His 38.5 usage percentage in the clutch was far and away the highest on the team (Rudy Gay was second among the regulars at 21.4 percent), and that number only grew as the clock wound down despite the fact everyone and their pet knew he was getting the ball when San Antonio needed to score. The dude could flat-out put the ball in the basket. DeRozan’s 58.4 true-shooting percentage in these situations was borderline elite, a number comparable to those of superstar perimeter players like Bradley Beal, Luka Doncic and Trae Young, but a tier below usual suspects like Damian Lillard, James Harden and Steph Curry.
(Side note: DeRozan almost never takes 3-pointers, a shot that factors heavily in the calculation of true-shooting percentage. So the fact his number was that high in the clutch is even more impressive considering he was almost always operating in considerably less space than the other players mentioned. It’s not exactly more conducive to winning — being able to shoot 3s would obviously be ideal LOL — but it’s impressive, nonetheless.)
I realize you don’t need a bunch of numbers thrown in your face to understand the Spurs just lost their biggest offensive threat and it’s going to be more difficult to score points now that he’s gone. Incredibly astute observation, I know. But these stats do illustrate the depth of the hole the Spurs are going to have to fill when the game is on the line; and while we can forecast where the added responsibility may fall, the likely candidates to fill the void have spent so little time in such roles that at this point we’re just making educated guesses on who ‘The Guys’ are going to be. But we do have some context with which to work.
Dejounte Murray has seen his role grow with each passing year, and the responsibilities he’s taken on all point to him potentially being one of the Spurs’ top late-game playmakers this season. Furthermore, his style of play is one that can regularly produce good shots in difficult situations. He frequently utilizes the pick-and-roll to get downhill on his defender, and over the last couple of years (post-ACL injury) he’s had a knack for finding the soft spots behind perimeter defenses, where he can use his length and athleticism to get off pretty much any shot he’d like. And that’s where he’s most comfortable.
The jumper and floater off the dribble have become Murray’s go-to shots, accounting for nearly 46 percent of all attempts he takes in the half-court, per Synergy data. And while overall he scored at no more than an above-average rate in those mid-range zones last season, his percentages jumped significantly in clutch situations. His usage rate late in games was nowhere near that of DeRozan, but his true-shooting percentage was nearly identical; and much like DeMar, he only became more efficient as the game got closer.
But there will be a few issues that arise with Murray when the defense homes in on him, and if you’ve watched the Spurs with any regularity during his career you probably already know what those are.
Murray’s range has consistently been limited along both the X-axis and Y-axis on the court. Nearly 50 percent of his shots are confined within the painted area, and you’ll rarely see him range beyond a 15-foot radius of the basket in any direction, per NBA stats. He plays in a bit of a bubble from a shot-creation perspective, which makes things a lot easier on set defenses that know they can just push him out and keep him away from his comfort zones.
Over the last two seasons, we’ve seen flashes of a consistent jumper from between the free-throw and 3-point lines above the nail. He doesn’t take a ton of them — he was 31-for-54 from that area last season — but when Murray has that shot going from elbow to elbow, he becomes a much more viable threat. Not only does it unlock more opportunities for him, it also creates more space for the rest of the offense to breathe as big men can no longer comfortably play in drop coverage. Less clutter makes for better workflow.
Another problem area for Murray — and this is especially true when we’re talking about players who might be tasked with bigger roles late in games — is the fact he just doesn’t draw many fouls. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Spurs’ point guard drew a whistle on just 6.1 percent of all the shots he took last season, which is in the 32nd percentile of all players at his position.
Despite his length and athleticism (or maybe because of it), he oftentimes opts for floaters in that short mid-range game with which he’s grown so comfortable. A lot of this likely has to do with his size, however. While Murray has great height for his position, his thin frame isn’t exactly conducive to physical play around the basket. He’s never going to be a guy who bullies his way to the line 10 times a game, but finding ways to get himself to the line would go a long way in situations where a team needs to stop the bleeding or tack on much-needed points. He’s the longest-tenured Spur now, so surely he’s picked up some old-head craftiness along the way, right?
In the end it’s pretty simple with Murray: If he can find his jump shot on a consistent basis, even if it only extends out to 18-20 feet, it will make him a legitimate threat in all situations. He’s got the physical attributes and the attitude to be a go-to guy late in games, but that can only take him so far. If the defense is able to sit back and camp out when Murray has the ball, the offense is going to have more issues than it’s already likely to have.
The 2020-21 season was not a pretty one for Derrick White, but frankly, I’ve chosen not to pay it much mind. The guy was banged up all year, and in the middle of it all he had to deal with health and safety protocols due to coronavirus exposure that kept him out for weeks. He simply never had a chance at any type of consistency, which makes it a little difficult to analyze exactly where he stands in the offensive hierarchy heading in to the season.
Perhaps due to his physical ailments, White spent a lot more time catching and shooting the ball than he had during his low-key breakout 2019-20 season. And even more telling was the fact he simply wasn’t getting to the rim. While he was still steadily involved in initiating the offense, he just wasn’t the same player.
During his second and third seasons in the league (he rarely played his rookie year), 35 percent of White’s shots came at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass. He was proving to be a guy who could beat you from anywhere on the floor; and while he wasn’t going to blow by the defense necessarily, or self-create any shot he wanted, he was excellent in the pick-and-roll and knew how to use it to get to his spots with regularity. He did have some sneaky explosiveness when he was healthy, though.
Prior to last season, all indications seemed to point toward a growing commitment to White being the point guard the team trusted most, especially in late-game situations; but given the situation at hand, one can’t say whether that’s the case anymore as the Spurs move closer to training camp. Regardless of who earns the title of point guard, though, White is very much going to be in the conversation as The Guy in late-game situations.
His versatility and range make him a different kind of threat than Murray. He can play on or off the ball, initiate offense at the first or secondary point of attack, and unlike his aforementioned teammate, can get to the free-throw line consistently if he’s right physically. White doesn’t necessarily have an obvious go-to shot when he needs a basket, but he creates uncertainty, and variety is the spice of fourth-quarter offense as they say. Err, something like that.
I feel like there’s a sizable contingent of Spurs fans who hope Lonnie Walker IV and Keldon Johnson are the two guys who take the biggest leap of the bunch. And I get it. They’re two of the biggest personalities on the team, and it would be a lot of fun for a lot of people if one of them turns out to be a regular taker of big shots. We’ve seen some outbursts from both of these guys during their young careers, and clearly there is the possibility for fireworks when they’re on the floor, but typically their big moments did not come consistently. You see the potential as it plays out in front of you, but there’s still quite a bit of grooming to be done between the two.
Johnson and Walker IV are both high-energy sparkplugs who are capable of getting hot and igniting runs throughout a game, and the boost they have the potential to provide in that capacity can be invaluable. But to make the leap from starting-caliber player to offensive focal point seems improbable. Their roles within the offense have been pretty similar — they both play primarily as spot-up wings who like to either catch-and-shoot or quickly move off the dribble — but Johnson has an ability to attack the basket with his size that could be the element that separates these two players in the long run. We already know the physicality is there, and at some point along the way he’s going to start getting more foul calls as well. That’s where his bread is primarily going to be buttered until he brings his shot along a little more.
But it’s also important to remember their roles were what they were due in large part to the guys playing in front of them and next to them, so it’s inevitable they’re going to get more opportunities. As is the case with much of the roster, we’ll see what the change in regime looks like soon enough.
There is one last dark-horse entry in the search for The Guy. Devin Vassell is the Spurs’ highest draft pick since Tim Duncan, and while his rookie season — one that began without summer league and a weird, condensed training camp — was fairly quiet, there were small pockets of the schedule in which we got a glimpse of some of the talent the Spurs saw before drafting him.
Vassell is still just 20 years old, but at 6’7 and around 200 pounds, he’s got that archetypal swingman body and length on top of good athleticism that allows him to pass the eye test, first and foremost. But the most intriguing part about him is he seems to be more than just the 3-and-D kind of player he was advertised as out of the draft.
We saw bits and pieces of it last season and a little more of it during summer league, but Vassell looks like a guy who could become a top three player on a good team. Not only does he have the potential to be a plus shooter from the outside, but he’s sneaky good getting to his spots and pulling up off the dribble. His size and length make his shot very difficult for shot-blockers to swat, and as he gets stronger and his handles improve, he’s going to be able to pin a lot of defenders on his hip out of the pick-and-roll and get right to the shot he wants most places on the floor. I don’t think he’s going to be a player who blows by defenders, but we see guys’ explosiveness spike during their first couple of years in the league once they’re exposed to world-class development and strength-training programs. Regardless, he seems to have the tools and skill set to be an impact starter down the road.
It’s just something to keep an eye on going forward. We’ll need to see a lot more in his second year before the hype train starts rolling too far down the track.
In reality, a lot of what’s accomplished this season in San Antonio will come because of a group effort. Whatever hypotheticals may be presented, and whichever player’s case you’d like to support, replacing someone like DeRozan (not to mention Mills and Gay) is not going to be done by one person on this roster as it’s presently constituted. The offense is bound to have games where things just aren’t working out, and the Spurs will do what they can to manufacture answers. But this is a developmental year, and rest assured there will be plenty of learning experiences along the way.
Acquisitions like Bryn Forbes, Doug McDermott and Thaddeus Young (who I’m not totally sold will be on the team through the end of the season) will also have their moments of support and as primary beneficiaries of the young guys’ production, and I’m guessing there will be some games in there where Luka Samanic, Tre Jones, Zach Collins and Jock Landale make a contribution or two. And hell, we haven’t even mentioned Josh Primo, but I’d suggest folks have some serious patience there … at least at first.
In general, this season could be a giant mixed bag of development. If we’re searching for The Guy on the Spurs right now, we might just be spinning our wheels. There’s a real possibility that person doesn’t exist on the team’s roster at this point, and somewhere down the line the decision will be obvious. But for now, the onus is on 72-year-old Pop to help steer the kids in the right direction and hope the right puzzle pieces fall in place along the way.
Great article.
I'm personally hoping for a Keldon and/or Lonnie MIP season, even if it's not super likely.