From rollercoaster to race track, Lonnie Walker IV is trying to 'put it all together'
The Spurs guard is in the midst of arguably the best stretch of basketball he's ever played, but his history reminds us there's still a lot to prove.
Lonnie Walker IV is a bit of an enigma.
Nights of captivating scoring bursts dot the high points across the story arch of his career, like signal flares illuminating the path ahead for the 23-year-old Spurs guard. But all too often those flames have been extinguished before the next has even had a chance to ignite.
There have been common themes throughout the course of Walker IV’s development. A lack of consistency, aggression, and problems easing up on his pace-of-play throttle have led to a rollercoaster ride of production that has cast shadows over the promise he’s flashed over the years, as both he and the Spurs have continued to search for the key that unlocks the next level.
When San Antonio hired old friend Manu Ginobili as a special adviser to basketball operations over the offseason, the vision made sense in a lot of ways. A team stocked with young guards and wings could probably benefit from having a recently retired future Hall-of-Famer hanging around the basketball facilities. But perhaps nobody on the team could have used Ginobili’s tutelage more than Walker IV, who entered the final season of his rookie deal without a new contract after no extension was agreed upon over the summer.
Walker IV’s first two seasons in the league were tumultuous. He spent much of his time working to develop an identity within the framework of the rotation, and the expected struggles and swings in efficiency came as part of the package. But as his strengths snuck more and more into focus, Gregg Popovich and the coaching staff began to settle on a role for the hyper-athletic (and often just hyper) swingman. The Spurs relied heavily on the energy he brought to the second unit as he became entrenched as the team’s sixth man last season, a niche Pop has always valued tremendously and one he wanted to carve out for Walker IV.
But as his role has largely become as defined as anyone’s on the team, the inconsistencies in his play have remained.
“That just comes with the mindset of being aggressive. I have a tendency of starting some games … not aggressive going downhill. I just wanted to be a jump shooter,” he said after a win over the Denver Nuggets in December. “That’s just not all my game. That’s something that me and Manu have really been talking about. Just being aggressive, being confident and just playing the game.”
Much like Ginobili was when bursting into a game off the bench, Walker IV is at his best when he’s on the attack. Whether it’s off the dribble, flying in transition, hugging the perimeter on the move or cutting past defenders away from the ball, there isn’t another Spur who can disrupt a defense with his athleticism the way Lonnie can. A lightning-quick first step and an ability to seemingly levitate toward the basket are attributes that are wasted when his confidence and aggressiveness wane, and his activity turns to passivity.
But over the last six games, the all-too-familiar roadblocks have turned to traffic cones as Walker IV has taken full advantage of the increased responsibility in the wake of Derrick White’s departure at the trade deadline. He’s unloading 20.3 points per game with a true-shooting percentage of 59 percent in 28 minutes a night during this stretch; and while baskets are coming from all over the court, the source of the surge has been the sweet spot around the rim.
“(The trade) gave me the opportunity to be a little more aggressive, be downhill, get to our spots. It’s hard when you’ve got a lot of guards within the same team,” he said over the weekend. “Derrick was a huge piece for us, offensively and defensively, and losing him was probably one of the hardest things for our team. But it allows young guys like Devin (Vassell), myself and (Josh) Primo to continue to grow and get better and play our game.
"I’m just trying to put it all together.”
And the aggressiveness has been evident. During what has arguably been the strongest, most efficient stretch of his career, Walker IV has accounted for 15.4 percent of the team’s drives to the basket (up from 10.3 percent in the 51 games prior), 51.2 percent of which have resulted in a basket, made free throw or assist, per NBA Stats. And the persistent paint invasions have paid off, as he’s drawn fouls on 14.3 percent of his drives over the course of these six games (up from 8.4 percent).
But while the counting numbers offer a nice glimpse into the impact of the results, what they represent on a larger scale is the importance of the process. When Walker IV is playing inside-out with regularity, his game takes on an entirely different personality. The more he attacks, the more the defense must collapse lest it allow a runway to the rim. From there, the gaps from elbow to elbow begin to grow as defenders sink into place, opening space for the pull-up jumpers Lonnie adores.
Extra attention toward Walker IV also means his teammates are receiving less of it, and we’ve already seen leaps in his ability to find the right openings out of compromising situations. In the absences of White, as well as DeMar DeRozan dating back to last season, Lonnie has shouldered a larger load as a playmaker within the second unit.
He’s generating 22.2 potential assists per 100 passes this season, a rate that ranks in the 90th percentile across the NBA; and while he may not be a prolific distributor (just 3.9 potential assists per game), his 2.9 high-value assists per 75 possessions, which include 3-point, free-throw and rim assists, is still good enough to land in the league’s 66th percentile. Walker IV’s primary job is to attack and score first, but he’s shown tremendous efficiency in finding others when they’ve got good looks at the basket.
The most important element in the nature of his his recent performances is the repeatability of the process. Field-goal percentages will rise and fall just as the hot nights will make way for the frigid ones, but the mindset does not have to change. If Walker IV continues to approach the game the way he has been recently, the results will be there in the end, along with what would likely be a very nice new contract.
San Antonio did not extend Walker IV prior to the start of the season, but there were a lot of factors in play. As a rebuilding team that’s prioritizing cap flexibility while trying to manage a logjam in the backcourt, the Spurs wanted to make sure to allow for the most space possible heading into the offseason while also learning more about the roster it wants to take into the future. The first domino to fall was the White trade, and not far behind it will be the Lonnie decision.
His status as a restricted free agent gives San Antonio some room to work. Only a handful of teams around the league are currently projected to have cap space this summer (with the Spurs being one of the fortunate few), to an extent limiting the number of suitors who could potentially offer Walker IV a contract that’s too rich for San Antonio’s blood. Regardless, the Spurs have the ability to match any deal that slides across their desk; and given the dearth of game-changing and/or realistic free-agent candidates set to hit the market, it’s entirely possible Lonnie will be San Antonio’s big signing this offseason.
This may sound strange to some, and even infuriating to a faction of folks who want to see the Spurs use what could be max space to pursue someone like Zach LaVine or Deandre Ayton (an unrestricted and a restricted free agent, respectively), but the odds of pulling the most desired pieces of the summer away from their current teams are low. There will be inquiries into both players, and teams like San Antonio will go for it if they feel they have a chance, but it’s a stretch to view it as a realistic probability.
It’s important to look at the entirety of the situation. The Spurs are currently in the business of acquiring and developing assets, not losing them, and there are different ways to approach the idea of re-signing Walker IV. While he has been a big part of the team’s tightknit locker room and has never voiced any displeasure over his role off the bench, there may be teams out there looking to offer a promotion and more money. Especially if he keeps playing like this. But again, they’d still be at the mercy of San Antonio and its summer plans.
The Spurs’ options are threefold: They can re-sign him to keep him on board as part of their future core or simply as an asset accruing value, they can execute a sign-and-trade once free agency begins in an exchange of parts and an effort to more fully round out their roster, or they can let him walk if they decide to chase one of the stars — a risky proposition.
Regardless, the Spurs will be in fine shape as it pertains to Walker IV on whichever path they decide to take. And the more he continues to show out, the better their options will become. But while these last six games have piqued the interest of anyone watching, many are still peeking out of the sides of their eyes, trying not to let their guards down. While this run seems to have taken on a life of its own, we’ve still watched similar movie to this one before.
“We’ll see. We’ll see,” Pop said Monday when asked if Walker IV has turned a corner. “I think he has played the last three or four games really wisely.”
Between the ears — where the key to unlocking Lonnie’s next leap has always resided.