Finding the Wemby fit, Part III: The final bridge

As the draft approaches, we attempt to view prospects through the Spurs' lens based on recent historical trends and a little, ahem, corporate knowledge.

Every single day has brought new news ever since I posted Part II of this series, and I can’t wait for this draft to actually happen. I’m not going to open this newsletter with more preaching — it’s already long enough — so let’s just get to the most likely prospects at pick No. 8, which is where I expect the Spurs to stay.

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Devin Carter (Primary/Secondary Ball-Handler) — Age: 22, Height: 6’2.25, Weight: 193 lbs, Wingspan: 6’8.75

There has been and likely will be plenty of debate surrounding what role Carter is going to play at the next level, but the reality is he’ll probably end up shifting around accordingly based on opponent, matchup, and whatever lineup variations seem appropriate at the time. Fortunately for whichever team drafts him, he’s got a skill set on both sides of the ball that should allow him to fulfill any of these obligations within reason.

While he’s a scoring guard first and foremost, he doesn’t play with blinders strapped to his head. Carter’s 1.057 points per possession out of the pick-and-roll (including passes to teammates) ranked in the 88th percentile in all of college basketball last season, per Synergy data, and his 1.0 points per possession as a scorer in the same situations ranked in the 89th percentile — a number bolstered by his ability to finish around the rim (65.9 percent). Additionally, despite not being a pure point by any stretch, he still managed a 23.3 assist percentage and a workable 14.1 turnover percentage during his junior year at Providence. But it may be his ability off the ball that makes him a great fit for the Victor Wembanyama offense.

Carter never stops moving, and he loves to make defenses chase him off screens until he gets to his spots. While his shot is a little unorthodox and his release a little low, he’s got the kind of range that will inevitably give him the space he needs to fire that 40.2-percent catch-and-shoot 3-ball he showcased last season. On top of that, he has no fear in letting it fly. He wants those shots, which is something for which scouts probably would’ve docked him points a year ago.

It’s perhaps the biggest Carter question going right now: Is the shot for real? I would argue it is, based on this:

Overall 3-point percentage by year

• Freshman — 26.7 percent

• Sophomore — 29.9 percent

• Junior — 37.7 percent

Free-throw-shooting percentage by year

• Freshman — 68.8 percent

• Sophomore — 72.0 percent

• Junior — 74.9 percent

Not only have these touch indicators improved year over year, but they’ve done so on greater volume than each season prior. Carter shot nearly twice as many 3s this season as he did during his sophomore campaign, and in watching the film, I can tell you many of them were tough shots. I can even give you the data: Per Synergy, he was considered “guarded” on 61.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers, and he still shot 44.9 percent on those contested 3s. If there’s handwringing over his release, I’m not sure now is the time to try and validate those gripes.

Defensively, like Stephon Castle, he’s a maniac at the point of attack. His strength and long arms allow him to harass and scale up or down against either backcourt position — he averaged 1.8 steals and 1.0 blocks per game last year — and his ridiculous 14-percent rebound rate as a guard would add a dynamic San Antonio’s roster has been missing badly for several years now. (He averaged 8.7 rebounds per game last season … as a 6’2 combo guard.)

And it doesn’t stop there. Carter killed it at the combine, breaking the record for fastest three-quarter-court sprint in the event’s history: 70.5 feet in 2.87 seconds. On top of that, his 42-inch vertical tied for the highest, and his 10.63-second lane-agility drill was third in the class.

OK, so why is this guy not going higher? Because all of this sounds pretty damn good. Well, there are fair questions about his ability to initiate. His handle isn’t great, he struggles when he’s pressured, and he’s not some playmaking maestro. In terms of shooting, you’re putting a lot of faith the one good season he’s had is a sign of things to come, even considering the volume. And you’re doing all this with a guy who’s already 22 years old. I know that sounds ridiculous, but those extra two-to-three years he has on some of these guys matter.

Still, the Spurs may be ready to dive back into that experienced rookie pool again, given the rapid progress of Wembanyama. Carter has been compared often to Derrick White, who was “old” when he entered the league. And frankly, it’s not a bad comparison.

I mentioned it in the most recent Small Market Bias podcast, but a draft-day haul of Castle and Carter — two do-it-all types of players with complementary skill sets — would be pretty nice in this writer’s opinion.

(Man, I just realized I never got to Carter’s transition game. Just know the very athletic guy with great vision who can shoot and score at the rim is good on the break — 1.246 points per possession good. We gotta move on.)